Tatsuya Imai's decision on his Astros option doesn't change his uncertain future

The Houston Astros still don't have a general manager, but that could change at any minute now that executives from the Milwaukee Brewers have free time on their hands. Still, the show must go on in terms of the procedural moves to start the offseason, and that means Tatsuya Imai has made the worst-kept secret official.

MLB insider Jon Heyman confirmed that Imai has exercised his player option for 2027 and will be returning to the Astros. Considering the up-and-down nature of Imai's rookie season in Houston, it would have a complete surprise if he elected free agency. Imai's struggles forced him to be moved to the bullpen for the final two months of the regular season, and that's a good starting point for what's next in the relationship between the two sides.

The kid gloves need to be taken off moving forward. That's not to make light of a player uprooting their personal life by moving from Japan to the United States, but this game can be cruel. It's a performance-based business, and Imai's performance was one of the biggest failures of the season for the Astros.

By no means should Imai be automatically handed a rotation spot in 2027. He will need to earn his way back, and there's very little in his data to suggest he can. He walked over 15% of the hitters he faced last year, and unless there's a dramatic improvement on that front, Imai will need to be an expensive hide int he bullpen.

Tatsuya Imai's obvious decision puts Astros in a payroll bind for 2027

With $36 million owed to Imai over the next two years, assuming he doesn't opt out after next year, there's a more concerning reality hiding in plain sight for the Astros. With there potentially being a salary floor and salary cap added to baseball moving forward, there's a new inherent risk when talking about bad contracts.

Right now, Imai's contract falls into that category. With Imai picking up his option, the Astros' 2027 payroll hovers around $195 million. The numbers are derived from FanGraphs' RosterResource and it's also important to note that it doesn't factor in salaries for arbitration-eligible players, as well as the pre-arbitration players. In other words, before the Astros blink this offseason, they might already be squeezed for cash.

Which goes back to the decision that was made last year when the Astros were seemingly the only team to believe in Imai's profile as a starting pitcher. It's proving to be the costly mistake that keeps on giving.

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