Who or What Is At Fault For What Has Gone Wrong With the Astros

If the Astros don't play in October for the first time since 2016, they'll have nobody to blame but themselves. With a 2 1/2 game lead in the AL West, the Astros were staring 9 of 12 games against the A's and Royals in the face while Seattle and Texas had much tougher schedules to navigate.

Houston unfathomably lost nine of those 12, and now find themselves with a 0.5 game lead over the Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot before tonight's game. The Astros will finish with six games on the road. They'll play three against Seattle, who already holds the season tiebreaker, before traveling to Arizona for three against the Diamondbacks. Both opponents are also fighting for their playoff lives.

Even if Houston gets in, they won't have home field advantage, a first round bye, or an advantageous pitching matchup. And if they do miss out, they'll have nowhere to look but the mirror.

Let's look at who or what is to blame for what has gone wrong with the Astros.

#6 Injuries

Let’s be clear; injuries played a role in the Astros struggles this season, but they are not the primary culprit. Compared to much of the MLB, they’ve actually been relatively healthy. 

It’s not the amount of games that have hurt Houston, but rather, who has missed them. Jose Altuve missed the first two months of the season. Yordan Alvarez missed multiple stints. Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t thrown a pitch. Luis Garcia started only six games. And José Urquidy missed three full months. 

If the Astros hadn’t missed Altuve for two whole months, and if he and Alvarez had been in the lineup together more, Houston likely squeezes out a couple more wins. 

And if McCullers, Garcia and Urquidy were available for more innings, we likely don’t see Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France blow past their career high workloads. Maybe their second half struggles are alleviated. 

So yes, injuries played a role in the struggles, but they and the WBC are not solely to blame. 

#5 José Abreu

José Abreu was signed this offseason to a three-year deal to stabilize the Astros at 1B and provide another run producer in the heart of the order. Coming off of an .824 OPS season, he was supposed to elevate the Astros. 

He’s done anything but that. 

Only two qualified players in baseball have been worse than Abreu’s -0.9 fWAR. His .234 average and .669 OPS are both below league average. And defense has never been his calling card, but his bat made up for his shortcomings. With his bat abandoning him, Abreu has been a massive overpay and a net negative for Houston.

Yes, he's driven in 84 runs, but that's more of a byproduct of making 74% of his starts hitting cleanup or batting fifth than it is some incredible display of run production.

Let’s hope he miraculously finds the fountain of youth in 2024. 

#4 Defensive Regression

The Astros have been one of the best defensive teams in baseball during their Golden Era. Since 2018, they’ve finished fourth or better every year in Defensive Runs Saved. 

Last year they finished fourth in the MLB with 67 DRS. Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Peña both took home Gold Gloves. It felt like any ball put in play became an out. 

2023 hasn’t been nearly as kind. Tucker and Peña alone have combined for 28 fewer DRS. Houston is 18th in the MLB this year with 2 DRS as a team. 

Yes, a full 65 less runs saved. They’ve allowed 65 unearned runs this year, one of the highest marks in the game. Martín Maldonado can’t keep the baseball in front of him (a league-worst 12 passed balls) and Houston has struggled to make the most routine of plays. 

With a young rotation already struggling to limit the damage, they didn’t have room to inflict further harm on themselves. Their defense has done just that. 

#3 Starting Rotation

Speaking of a young rotation...

Elite pitching has been an Astros hallmark since 2017. Each year they've turned out at least one, and often two Cy Young candidates.

Needless to say they don't have any this year.

Cristian Javier, a preseason Cy Young candidate, has regressed mightily, battling fatigue from his workload last year, the WBC, and a new career-high in innings.

J.P. France and Hunter Brown have also blown past their previous career-high workloads. Brown has a 6.64 second-half ERA, and an especially heinous 9.14 ERA in September. First-half hero J.P. France has regressed in the last two months, posting an ERA of 6.13 since August 1.

And their co-aces have struggled. Justin Verlander has a 3.93 as an Astro. He's been untouchable at times, and thrown BP at others. Framber Valdez looked like the AL Cy Young winner through three months, but posted an ERA over 7.00 in July.

He's stabilized in the last few months, but got shelled for seven runs (six earned) in a must-win his last time out against the hapless Royals.

The Astros starting rotation, especially in the second-half, has let them down.

#1 Dusty Baker

If the Astros miss out on the postseason, nobody deserves more blame than Dusty Baker. We said so back in June.

No matter what his resume shows, his ancient ways of thinking and disdain for young talent have killed Houston all year. The Astros are getting a first-hand taste of why Baker has been let go of four times.

Baker spent the early months of the season starting names like Bligh Madris at DH while Yainer Diaz collected 68 plate appearances through May.

He's basically refused to play Diaz over either Maldonado or Abreu. Maldy has been worth -1.3 fWAR, and by all publicly available metrics, has been the worst defensive catcher in the sport. But because of "comfort," Diaz has't gotten to work with Valdez or Verlander, and barely has with Javier. One of the Astros best bats remains parked on the bench while Maldy and Abreu flail away daily.

His beef with Chas McCormick has continued to boil over. McCormick didn't start on Opening Day, has lost out on starts due to the return of the "personal center fielder" after the JV trade, was benched so Jon Singleton could pinch hit, and has been publicly criticized. Meanwhile Chas was named one of the MLB's top breakout stars and has put up All-Star numbers.

He treated winnable games like Spring Training, and in claiming he doesn't panic, set up his team to fail by expecting them to flip a switch in October. He granted too many rest days to players like Yordan, even with the season on the line.

He often turned to Phil Maton with runners on base rather than Hector Neris, even when Maton is much better in a clean inning. Hunter Brown has continued to take the ball every fifth day with terrible results and too much work while José Urquidy handles mop-up innings in long relief.

He left José Abreu in the heart of the order all season while burying Chas and Yainer in the bottom of the order even when he did play.

Yes, Baker was the right hire for stability in 2020. But his decisions on both a micro and a macro level have killed Houston this year. He's a great human and a likable guy. But his outdated thinking has left Houston playing catchup all year.

No matter how you slice it, nobody deserves more blame for 2023 than Dusty Baker.