What The Astros Playoff Rotation Should Look Like

Over the last six playoff rund for the Astros, they've made deep runs on the backs of dominant starting pitchers. Year after year they've had an elite rotation that keeps runs off the board.

This year, their recipe for success is different. The lineup is lethal and the bullpen is lights out, but the starting rotation has lots of questions. Cristian Javier is a shell of himself, Hunter Brown has regressed as his workload increases, José Urquidy has an ERA approaching 6, and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia are done for the year.

Aside from Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez, there aren't any pitchers in the rotation that generate a great deal of confidence with the fate of the season on the line. So how might they line up their rotation to give them their best shot at repeating as World Series champs? Let's dive in.

This is how the Astros should set their playoff rotation.

Game 1: Framber Valdez

The Framchise should be Houston's Game 1 starter. Yes, Framber Valdez had an outrageously bad month of July, posting a 7.29 ERA across four starts. Aside from that stretch, he's been one of the best pitchers in the American League.

This is nothing new for Valdez. He goes deep into games and is a proven playoff performer. Valdez remains a quality start machine.

It's likely JV gets the ball in Game 1, but twice last postseason he laid an egg and put the Astros behind the eight-ball. Valdez holds a 3.32 ERA this year with a 1.09 WHIP. Framber should get the start in Game 1. He gives the Astros their best chance at jumping out 1-0 in a series, and also will keep the bullpen fresh with his ability to go deep into a game.

Game 3: J.P France

Now this is where things get interesting. After Valdez and Verlander, Dusty Baker has his hands full. Does he go with the struggling Cristian Javier on the backs of a dominant 2022 postseason? Does he go with the streaky Hunter Brown? Or does he go with the under-the-radar pitcher that wasn't even expected to throw an inning for the big league club in 2023 in J.P. France?

It has to be France. His name may not be as flashy and he may not have overpowering pure stuff, but he gets outs. France is 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

On August 24th, France went 2.1 innings, giving up 11 hits and two walks, allowing an unsightly 10 earned runs. Aside from that outing, France has a 2.96 ERA.

Now, he's over performing his expected metrics via Statcast, but he continues to limit damage and navigate traffic on the basepaths. Brown and Javier each are one baserunner away from combusting at all times.

France has walked the tightrope all season, successfully woking his way out of jam after jam. With so few relaible options, the Astros should go with the one that has been consistent all year. He's probably not going to go 7 scoreless in October, but France should get through the order between two and three times and have the Astros at worst within striking distance in doing so.

Game 4: Cristian Javier/Hunter Brown piggyback

Game 4 is when anything can happen. On paper, Javier and Brown should be elite. They both have great stuff and were expected to perform like it this season.

But the games aren't played on paper.

Through 11 games, Javier looked like the pitcher of last year. It's hard to believe he held the lethal Braves to one run on three hits across six innings with 10 strikeouts this year.

June hit, fatigue set in, mechanics broke down, and Javier became a shell of himself. His fastball no longer is an "invisiball" and his slider is getting teed off on. He now holds a 4.78 ERA on the season.

Brown holds an identical 4.78 ERA. He strikes out more batters than Javier, and still has put together some good performances during his slump, but hasn't been able to string multiple good outings back-to-back.

The Astros starters for Games 1,2 and 3 consistently put together quality starts. The bullpen should be in a good spot heading into Game 4.

The Astros need to rely on their strengths in Game 4: their offense and bullpen. Let Javier go through the order one time and Brown one time. From there, turn it over to the bullpen. Jose Urquidy may even have a turn if he hasn't thrown in the first three games. They just need to get to the fifth with the game close.

Houston could land the plane with Maton, Graveman, Neris, Abreu, and Pressly.

It's for the most part unchartered territory for the Astros. Whereas teams like the Rays employ "bullpen games" all year, Houston has for the most part had starters to rely on throughout their playoff runs.

If they're to make noise this year, it's going to take an all-hands-on-deck approach to win Game 4 of each series.