The Astros Ideal Lineup Post Trade Deadline

The Astros remain in second place in the AL West, trailing the Rangers by 3 games. If Houston is going to run down the Rangers, they need to put their best lineup on the field everyday. This is the Astros ideal lineup for the rest of the season.

Houston Astros v New York Yankees
Houston Astros v New York Yankees / Adam Hunger/GettyImages
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113 games into the year and the Astros still find themselves trailing the Rangers in the AL West. We're too deep into the season to continue experimenting with the lineup and batting order. Yes, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez haven't been back for that long, but it's time to put an end to the Yordan batting fifth experiment, as well as moving Alex Bregman and Jeremy Peña around in the lineup every day.

If Houston is going to run down Texas, they're going to need to score some runs. In order to do so, names like Yainer Diaz are going to need to be in the lineup every day, Yordan Alvarez is going to need more at-bats, and Jeremy Peña and Jose Abreu are going to need to move down in the order.

Obviously this lineup won't be trotted out without adjustment for the next 49 games, but this should be the staple order aside from rest days. It's also realistic. While many of us are clamoring for Yainer to catch every day, it's just not going to happen this season, no matter what the numbers say.

Let's take a look at the Astros ideal lineup as they attempt to run down Texas.

Houston Astros v New York Yankees
Houston Astros v New York Yankees / Sarah Stier/GettyImages

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez should bat 1-2-3.

Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez are a lethal combination at the top of the order. Jose Altuve is a nightmare leadoff hitter for opposing pitchers to navigate. He's a free-swinger that bashes first pitch fastballs over the fence with ease. If a pitcher tries to ease himself into the game, Altuve will ensure the Astros have a 1-0 lead.

His aggressive nature does lend to some quick outs, so Alex Bregman is a perfect #2 hitter to follow him. Bregman is incredibly patient and sees a ton of pitches. His propensity to work walks helps drive up an opposing starter's pitch count early. On the year, Bregman is hitting .253 with a .356 OBP and .775 OPS when batting second.

And Yordan Alvarez has to bat third. At his worst, Yordan is one of the four best hitters on planet earth, in a league only rivaled by Judge, Ohtani, and this year, Acuña. At his best, there's not another hitter better.

So why has he been batting fifth? He simply can't miss out on any more at-bats with games hanging in the balance. In the Astros 3-1 loss to New York on Saturday, the game ended with Alvarez on deck. He's one of the best batters on the planet and finished the day with three total plate appearances. That simply can't continue. Write Yordan's name third in the order whether he is in left field or at DH and don't even think about moving it.

Houston Astros v New York Yankees
Houston Astros v New York Yankees / Adam Hunger/GettyImages

Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick should bat 4-5-6.

Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker back-to-back? But what on earth will happen if the opposing team brings in a lefty reliever?

Oh, Like Friday night when the Yankees brought in Nick Ramirez to face the two? When Yordan worked a walk and Tucker drove in two runs with a double?

Tucker is hitting .295 with an .880 OPS this year. Against lefties, he's hitting an astounding .343 with a 1.009 OPS. Yordan is hitting .325 with a 1.022 OPS against lefties. By all means opposing teams, please bring in your lefty relievers.

Tucker is an RBI machine and your prototype clean-up hitter.

Here's a fun question: what do the names Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Ronald Acuña Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Mookie Betts, and Sean Murphy have in common?

Answer: they make up nine of the top-10 spots on the Statcast xSLG leaderboard. Care to guess who's the 10th name on that list?

Yainer Diaz. His .567 xSLG is 9th best in baseball. This rookie is surrounded by MVPs, All-Stars, and future Hall-of-Famers. Yet he got one start in the four-game series against New York. Oh and he just so happened to hit fifth and hit a three-run bomb in the first.

He's hitting .276 with an .811 OPS this year. With regular playing time, he's hit .321 with a .955 OPS in the last month. Stop leaving him on the bench. If it isn't Framber Valdez or Justin Verlander on the mound, he's your catcher. Period. "Comfort" is great, but Astros pitchers have a 4.00 ERA when Maldy is behind the plate. That's including 21 starts from an AL front-runner in Framber Valdez.

Beyond him, virtually everybody else on staff, has an ERA north of 4.00 with Maldy behind the plate.

Astros pitchers have a 3.25 ERA when pitching to Yainer. Again, "comfort" and "intangibles" are nice. Wins and results are even better. Plus he's got a 1.014 OPS when catching.

Now, anybody with a pulse and an ability to count and read can see that Diaz is the better catcher. But realistically, no matter what, Maldy will still catch 70% of the innings. It's not ideal, but it's happening. So if Hunter Brown and J.P. France aren't on the hill, he's your first baseman at least twice a week. These starts would come when Yordan is at DH. Jose Abreu's performance at the plate and in the field don't justify everyday playing time. And Yainer continues to carry an OPS well north of 1.000 when he plays the field. Get him in the field. Then start him at DH twice a week.

Will it happen? Very unlikely. One of their best bats will continue to get irregular playing time. But in an ideal lineup, he's their everyday fifth-hitter.

And what more needs to be said about Chas McCormick. He's hitting .275 with an .891 OPS. He's worth four defensive runs saved. He's in the 88th percentile in defensive runs saved. And his 2.9 bWAR is fourth on the team.

Chas is hitting .319 with an 1.105 OPS in the second half. That's incredible production. And it can't continue to sit behind José Abreu's bat in the order.

If the Astros trot out a 1-6 of Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, Diaz and McCormick day in and day out, opposing pitchers have no hope of navigating 1-6.

Cleveland Guardians v Houston Astros
Cleveland Guardians v Houston Astros / Logan Riely/GettyImages

José Abreu, Jeremy Peña and Martín Maldonado should bat 7-8-9.

As deep as 1-6 can be in the Astros lineup, they're holding on for dear life in spots 7-9.

The José Abreu mini resurgence in June was fun while it lasted. Over the last 28 days, he's hitting .238 with a .685 OPS. Over the last two weeks, he's hitting .195 with a .608 OPS. He simply has to move down in the order. He cannot continue to hit above some combination of Yainer Diaz and Chas McCormick, or in some cases, both of them.

For as much as we've heard about the back of his baseball card, he's produced like a bottom of the order player for the overwhelming majority of the season. There's an incredibly compelling case to be made for a timeshare with Yainer Diaz, and maybe even Jon Singleton if he produces with the big league club.

But again, that just won't happen. So for now, he moves down the 7th.

Jeremy Peña should hit 8th. The only reason he wouldn't hit 9th is Maldy. Peña is hitting .239 with a .668 OPS. Over the last 28 days, those numbers fall to .210 and .544.

And while a very small sample size (19 at-bats), he does have a .316 average and .855 OPS when batting 8th. He just can't continue getting more at-bats than Yordan, Tucker, Bregman, Diaz and Chas.

The Cinderella story from the 2-hole last year was great, but he simply has to move down.

And Martín Maldonado bats 9th. In an ideal world, he only starts twice a week (Framber and JV) and Jake Meyers is the 9-hitter, but seeing as that isn't even a remote possibility, we'll slot him here 9th.

Houston Astros v New York Yankees
Houston Astros v New York Yankees / Adam Hunger/GettyImages

The ideal Astros lineup the rest of the way to rack up wins and run down the Rangers would be this:

2B Jose Altuve
3B Alex Bregman
LF Yordan Alvarez
RF Kyle Tucker
DH Yainer Diaz
CF Chas McCormick
1B José Abreu
SS Jeremy Peña
C Martín Maldonado

Now in a do or die playoff game, there's quite a case to be made for Yainer at catcher, or in my eyes, even more compelling at first base. If the season is on the line, you want Framber or JV on the hill. So Maldy will obviously be behind the plate. But with Abreu's continued struggles at the plate, his bat doesn't justify sticking with his dreadful defense (8th percentile outs above average, -3 defensive runs saved).

And of course, if the miraculous happens and Michael Brantley does somehow make it back healthy, he needs to find a way into the lineup. But until then, this is the Astros best lineup.

That leaves them a bench of Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubón, Grae Kessinger and Jon Singleton.

Meyers is a great pinch runner and late game defensive sub, and should be in the lineup anytime Maldy is not.

Mauricio Dubón has had a terrible July and August at the plate, but he still brings great versatility defensively. Does that mean he should be JV's personal center fielder? Absolutely not. But he can grant spot off days, and should bat either 8th or 9th exclusisvely when he does.

Kessinger is mostly a place holder. He's hitting .200 with a .648 OPS in only 30 at-bats. He's there in case of catastrophe, but what happened Saturday can't happen again. He simply cannot start over a player the caliber of Yainer Diaz.

And who knows what they'l get with Singleton. He struggled in a brief stint with the Brewers this year, but has simply mashed ever since returning to Sugar Land. If his head is finally clear and he performs, as wild as it may be to say, maybe he's their first baseman down the stretch.

Realistically though, he gives them a lefty with pop to bring in as a pinch hitter for Maldy late in games.

It's still not a deep bench, but Singleton offers them flexibility Corey Julks didn't.

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