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The Astros Four Potential Leadoff Hitters Without Jose Altuve
The Houston Astros will be without Jose Altuve for an extended period of time, as their superstar second baseman needs surgery after fracturing his thumb. While it shouldn't be season ending, Altuve will likely miss an extended period of time, a crushing blow to the AL West favorites.
Altuve is the catalyst for the Astros offense, as his free-swinging approach often ignites the Astros team and fans. His 32 career leadoff home runs ensure opposing pitchers can't start the game with a get-me-over fastball to settle in.
Altuve is fresh off one of the best seasons of his career, hitting .300 with a .921 OPS. While none of these players can single handedly offset Altuve's contributions from the top of the order, the following Astros all could conceivably bat atop the Astros order.
Alex Bregman
While he utilizes almost an entirely different approach, Alex Bregman may be the best choice to replace Altuve atop the order with regards to similar results. Bregman's .366 OBP is close to Altuve's .387, and he also has some pop to match leadoff home run potential.
His .820 OPS last year was third-highest on the team, and his .872 second-half OPS showed signs of regaining his form from 2019. You can't ask for much more of a leadoff hitter than to get on base at a high clip and to do damage when contact is made.
From a profile perspective, Bregman consistently goes deep into counts and works quality ABs. While Altuve's attack first mentality at the plate can often lead to great results, there is plenty of give-and-take, as often the opposing pitcher has already recorded the first out of the game after throwing only 1-2 pitches.
Bregman's patience and plate discipline ensure opposing pitchers would not be able to just settled into their day, but would have to be sharp from the get-go, or else Houston will begin the day with either a leadoff walk or double.
Though he has been a staple in the Astros lineup as either the three of the four hitter, Bregman may be the best option to lead off until Altuve returns.
Kyle Tucker
If Dusty Baker wants the same home-run power and base-stealing ability atop the lineup, Kyle Tucker may be who he bats leadoff. And to be fair, Tucker is far too good of a hitter to continue batting fifth.
King Tuck would supply legitimate 30/30 potential from the leadoff spot, and with the banning of the shift and bigger bases tailor made for a player of his skillset, expect his batting average and OPS to both skyrocket.
It's easy to see a world in which Tucker goes from a .257 hitter with an .808 OPS to a .285 hitter with a .900+ OPS. Those numbers sure would be nice at the top of the order.
He only has batted leadoff one time in his career to this point, but even if Altuve hadn't gone down, it was time to move Tucker up in the order. This could be a good trial run to see if Tucker stays in the top third of the lineup. Which he should.
I wrote back in January what the Astros dream lineup should consist of this season, and had Altuve leading off with Bregman batting second and Tucker hitting third.
Jeremy Peña
For my money, Jeremy Peña is who I would anticipate Baker penciling into the top of the lineup. Like Altuve, he is an aggressive hitter that can easily turn a mistake around into the seats. He also brings elite speed to the top of the order.
Dusty Baker slotted Peña in the leadoff spot eight times last year, and while the results were not great (.129/.206/.226 with one home run, three walks and eight strikeouts in 31 at-bats), the small-sample size took place before the September swing adjustment that catapulted the rookie to ALCS and World Series MVP.
Peña has batted leadoff in spring training since returning from the World Baseball Classic. In seven spring training games, he is hitting .286 with two home runs (both in his first game back) with a .985 OPS.
David Hensley
Hensley is the sleeper candidate to bat leadoff, and while I wouldn't count on it, I also wouldn't put it past Dusty Baker. Last year Baker showed a propensity to bat subs in the same place in the order as the regular they were replacing, regardless of qualifications.
For instance, Niko Goodrum spent more games batting leadoff during his short stint in Houston than he did games batting 8th and 9th in the order combined. Mauricio Dubon was one of the worst hitters in baseball, and led off 17 times, batted second seven times and batted third eight times.
If Dusty continues this trend, he may just leave everybody else in the lineup where he feels they are most comfortable, and decide to place Altuve's replacement atop the order. Enter David Hensley.
Though he doesn't have the home run power the other three candidates possess, Hensley may not actually be a terrible idea atop the order. He fits more of the old school than new school model of leadoff hitter, as Hensley is one to carry a high average and get on base often.
In a small sample size last season, Hensley hit .345 with a 1.027 OPS. He reached base in 44% of his plate appearances. While a .441 OBP may look unsustainable for Hensley, he did reach base at a 42% clip in AAA. He knows how to work a quality at-bat, as evidenced by his performance in the postseason. Hensley is hitting .286 this spring with a .412 OBP and two home runs.
This is the least likely candidate, but don't rule David Hensley out from at least making a cameo atop the order in the couple of months Altuve is set to miss.