The Houston Astros are coming off a marathon of a game on Monday night where they beat the Texas Rangers 12-11 to take three of the four games in the series.
Now, the Astros have a chance to make up more ground when they take on the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday afternoon. Colorado is one of the worst teams in the National League and has the second worst run differential (-142) in all of baseball.
Lefty Kyle Freeland (4-8, 4.88 ERA) gets the ball for Colorado in this game. Freeland had a rough month of June, posting a 6.49 ERA in five starts. He allowed 32 hits and 12 walks in just 26.1 innings of work.
Luckily for the Rockies, the Astros won’t have their best arm on the mound in this game. Brandon Bielak (3-4, 4.37 ERA) gets the start for Houston on Tuesday. Bielak could be in line for some regression, as his Fielding Independent Pitching sits at 5.68 on the season.
Let’s break down the latest odds for this game and my best bet:
Rockies vs. Astros odds, run line and total
Rockies vs. Astros prediction and pick
While Houston probably comes away with a win in this matchup, I’m not comfortable betting on the run line with a fatigued bullpen for the Astros after yesterday’s high-scoring affair.
Instead, I’m looking to the total – specifically the OVER – as my best bet on Tuesday.
Freeland has a 1.42 WHIP this season, which is going to be a massive issue against an Astros team that is 12th in the league in OPS against lefties and works over three walks per game this season.
Since May 20 (eight starts), Freeland has a 7.15 ERA, 5.81 FIP and opponents are hitting .331 against him. He’s a must-fade candidate here, but I think Bielak is as well.
The Astros righty allowed batters to slash .343/.403/.614 against him in three June starts, compiling a 6.61 ERA and 6.66 FIP over that stretch.
The Rockies are 13th in the league in OPS against righties, so while I don’t trust their pitching, their bats aren’t inept this season.
To top it off, Colorado ranks 29th in the league in bullpen ERA, so we may see some late fireworks as well. I love the OVER in Houston on Tuesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.