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Report Card Series: Grading the Houston Astros' 2022 Rotation
1) Justin Verlander
What more is there to say about the unanimous Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander? Fresh off of Tommy John surgery, Verlander made 28 starts for the Astros, punishing opposing lineups en route to 18 wins. His 4-seam fastball/slider combination held opponents to a .186 batting average against and a .497 OPS. At age 39, his fastball somehow had the highest average velocity of any season in his Astros' tenure.
Verlander's 0.89 WHIP, 1.75 ERA and 220 ERA+ all led the MLB during the regular season. Over the course of his 28 regular season starts, he was completely un-hittable.
Unfortunately, Verlander's postseason performance left much to be desired. In Verlander's four playoff starts, he went 2-0 with a 5.85 ERA. His line could have been even more unsightly, but the heroic comeback in Game 1 of the ALDS and five runs in the first three innings of World Series Game 1 kept him from taking a loss in either game.
Verlander did finally pick up his first career World Series win with a bounce back in Game 5 in what was possibly his last start as an Astro.
Were the scoring based simply on the regular season, Verlander would have received a 100 on his report card, an A+. But when you're the best pitcher in baseball, you need to answer the bell in October. His playoff woes ding him ever so slightly.
Justin Verlander's 2022 Report Card: A (94/100)
2) Framber Valdez
The Astros' co-ace was historic in 2022, setting an AL record with 25 consecutive quality starts. He took the ball 31 times for Houston in 2022, finishing 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA, and 1.16 WHIP. His durability was a massive asset for the team, as Valdez recorded a league-leading 201.1 innings pitched, faced 827 batters, led the AL with three complete games and yielded a microscopic 0.5 HR/9, best in the game.
Simply put when Valdez took the mound for Houston, they received quality and they received length. Valdez' elite body of work was enough to finish fifth in the AL Cy Young race, his first time recording a top-five finish.
Valdez' rise from inconsistent rotation afterthought to Cy Young candidate has been remarkable.
Even more remarkable, Valdez somehow was even better in October than he was in the regular season. In 4 playoff starts, Framber finished 3-0, including the win in Game 6 of the World Series.
He terrorized the Mariners, Yankees and Phillies, recording 33 strikeouts in 25 innings and holding their lineups to a 1.44 ERA.
When Valdez took the hill, the opposition knew they were in for a long day and would likely head home on the wrong end of the box score. His dominance in the regular season was good for an A. His October dominance boosts him to an A+.
Framber Valdez' 2022 Report Card: A+ (98/100)
3) Cristian Javier
In a world where DeGrom, Scherzer, Cole and Verlander receive all of the adoration and overinflated contracts, for my money, Cristian Javier is the best arm in the game.
Javier appeared in 30 games for Houston in the regular season, starting 25. At the start of the season, he mostly operated as a reliever with Jake Odorizzi still rostered. Eventually the Astros moved to a six-man rotation, and as Javier's role fluctuated, his performance was slightly shaky in his first couple of starts. Once he settled in, he was untouchable.
As a reliever, Javier posted a 1.26 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. When starting, Javier was 11-8 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. With a firmly entrenched role in the rotation, his second-half was especially dynamic, posting a 1.79 ERA in 12 starts.
All together, he finished the season 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.7 SO/9. His Statcast metrics were even more dominant, finishing 2022 in the 98th percentile in xBA, 96th in xERA/xwOBA, 95th in xSLG and 94th in k-rate.
His "invisiball" fastball held opponents to a .183 batting average and generated whiffs on 27.3% of swings, while his slider was even more un-hittable. Opponents batted .121 against his slider, whiffing on 39.4% of offerings.
Beyond just the numbers, Javier met the moment, starting two combined no-hitters this season, one in Yankee Stadium and the other on the road in a must-win Game 4 of the World Series.
His playoff performance was one for the ages, going 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 12.2 innings. He yielded only one run, a solo home run in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Had Javier not spent the start of the season in the bullpen, he'd have finished with enough qualified innings to merit serious Cy Young consideration. Even if Verlander leaves, with a full season of Javier next season, they'll still have a favorite in 2023.
But that's next season. We're grading performances for this year, and Javier earned a near perfect one.
Cristian Javier's 2022 Report Card: A+ (99/100)
4) Luis Garcia
The lone potential "underachiever" in the 2022 rotation, Luis Garcia finished 15-8 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. By no means was Garcia a poor starter, but he didn't take the anticipated step forward from last season to this season, seeing a rise in ERA and a drop in strikeouts per nine.
Most of this can be explained in his erratic performances. 2022 for Garcia can best be summarized as a rollercoaster. His good was really good: 4-0 in September/October with a 1.86 ERA in five starts. His bad, however, was really bad: a 5.28 ERA in five starts in August.
Garcia finished with a 3.20 ERA in his starts ending with a win or a no decision, but in Garcia's eight losses, he recorded an ERA of 5.00. His unpredictability made for a somewhat disappointing season, but only because he had such high expectations.
His performance in Game 3 of the ALDS bumps his mark slightly higher. Garcia threw five scoreless innings in relief, preserving the shutout into the 18th inning and earning the win. The legendary relief outing has been somewhat forgotten due to the World Series no-hitter and heroics of Pressly, Abreu and other relievers, but what Garcia did that night in saving both the rotation and the bullpen cannot be overstated. It was a massive performance in a playoff run filled with them, and it increases his score for the 2022 season.
Luis Garcia's 2022 Report Card: B (84/100)
5) José Urquidy
The last member of the full-season rotation, Urquidy went 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
Like Garcia, Urquidy was up-and-down throughout the season. In his 13 wins, Urquidy recorded a 2.94 ERA and a 0.992 WHIP. In his eight losses, Urquidy looked like a AAA spot starter, posting a 7.52 ERA and a 1.746 WHIP. To be fair, Urquidy was solid against most teams outside of Seattle. In five starts against the Mariners, Urquidy was 1-3 with a 6.31 ERA.
Against all non-Mariner foes Urquidy finished with a 3.50 ERA, a more than respectable number.
His name came up in trade talks, but nothing came to fruition after Dusty Baker and Jim Crane nixed a deal that would have sent Urquidy to Chicago for Willson Contreras. With three remaining years of team control, this was likely a wise move.
Urquidy is a tremendous option as a fifth (or in the Astros' case) sixth starter. He may never win a Cy Young or make an All-Star team, but he's likely a #3 on other teams. A piece like Urquidy is what makes Houston's rotation so deep.
Additionally, he is a nails pitcher in the World Series. Urquidy made his fifth career World Series appearance in Game 3 of the Phillies' win over Houston. Urquidy recorded three scoreless innings, salvaging the bullpen and playing a hugely underrated role in setting up Houston to rip off three consecutive wins.
For his career, Urquidy now holds a 1.23 ERA in his 5 World Series appearances. For a team that gets there as often as Houston, that sure is a nice asset to have.
While nothing spectacular, Jose Urquidy met expectations as the Astros' final arm in the rotation. His 2022 season was solid and look for more of the same in 2023.
Jose Urquidy's 2022 Report Card: B- (82/100)