Ranking Potential Free Agent Signings for the Astros Headed Into Spring Training

Analyzing the available free agents for the Astros to target

With just a week to go before Spring Training, it's likely the Astros are rolling into next season with the pieces they have. Most of the pieces they have won them a World Series, though a few upgrades were added in the form of José Abreu and a reunion with a healthy Michael Brantley. It may be the trade deadline before we see a new player in an Astros uniform.

But if Houston were to make move and sign another still available free agent, these would be the five best fits.

5) Jurickson Profar

In terms of what they can bring to the table, Profar may be the best possible target for Houston. He is a clear upgrade over the incumbent utility man, Mauricio Dubón. If David Hensley holds down the infield, Profar could help in the outfield.

Profar has saved 10 runs in his career as a left fielder, but also could play the infield in a pinch or if Hensley isn't ready for a full season load in the big leagues yet. More appealing than his defense is his bat. Aside from an injury-riddled 2019 season for Aledmys Diaz, Houston hasn't had an abover-average utility piece since Marwin Gonzalez in 2019. Profar would be just that.

Since 2018, Profar is batting .241 with a .730 OPS. His 111 OPS+ was 11% better than the average big league hitter. He also posted a 110 WRC+ in 2022. This is far superior to the production the Astros received from the utility spot in 2022, as Diaz finished with a 95 OPS+ and
Dubón was a 40% below league average hitter, posting a 60 OPS+.

Additionally, his approach at the plate fits perfectly in the Astros' pass-the-baton approach, finishing 2022 in the 86th percentile in whiff rate, 85th percentile in walk rate, 84th in strikeout rate and 79th in chase rate.

So what gives? What may keep Profar out of Houston is his high asking price and desire to start every day. If he's willing to sign a short-term deal to win a ring and be a utility man, he's a no-brainer. As other teams leave him unsigned, he may take a prove-it deal before hitting free agency again next season.

If he does so, he should be an Astro. If not, four better options are on the table for Houston to target with their money.

3) Gary Sanchez

I can hear the collective groans and sighs of disbelief now at seeing Sanchez' name as an Astros target, but unless you followed the Twins in 2022, you may not realize this is not the Gary Sanchez of old that simply could not play defense as a Yankee.

Sanchez has worked tirelessly at his defense, and was a respectable defender in 2022. He finished in the 50th percentile in framing and was 79th percentile in pop time.

From 2019-2021, Sanchez was a negative defender, finishing with a combined -16 defensive runs saved. In Minnesota, he finished with 1 defensive run saved. He may not win a gold glove, but he's no longer the liability he once was.

And of course, his bat is still there. He finished 2022 in the 92nd percentile in hard hit rate and barrel rate, 76th percentile in xSLG, 55th in xwOBA and 53rd in walk rate, hitting 16 home runs and driving in 61 runs. His .659 OPS was 104 points higher than Houston got from their catchers last season. His 16 home runs project to 20 in Minute Maid.

As Maldy continues to age, Sanchez could be a huge piece in helping keep Machete's legs fresh for the playoffs, and is more proven for a contender if something were to happen to Maldonado than either or Korey Lee or Yainer Diaz.

Three years ago, this would have been an insane take. But there actually is a world where Gary Sanchez helps Houston in 2023.

2) Andrew Chafin

Another long rumored Astro, it's hard to believe Chafin remains unsigned. Chafin's elite fastball/slider combo led a 2.83 ERA in 57.1in 2022. For all of the talk of the Astros needing a lefty, he finished with reverse splits in 2022, holding righties to a well below average .586 OPS and lefties to a .665 OPS.

Chafin's Statcast metrics are almost exclusively in the red. His chase rate was 89th percentile and he finished 87th percentile in whiff rate. He keeps traffic off the base paths, and limits damage when he does get hit, finishing 86th percentile in xBA and xSLG, 84th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and 81st percentile in hard hit rate. 2022 was far from an outlier, as his Statcast metrics are consistently elite for a reliever.

As Ken Rosenthal recently reported (subscription required) the deal the Phillies gave to Matt Strahm (two years, $15 million) greatly inflated the market for left-handers. He did list Houston as a team interested in a lefty out of the pen. Chafin would be far more than a token lefty for Dusty. If the price is right, which it may very well be too high, Chafin turns a dominant bullpen into one that is impossible to score on. Only one option makes more sense.

1) Michael Fulmer

Fulmer too has been frequently rumored as a deadline target for the Astros. He carries a 2.89 career ERA as a reliever, but his ability to start could also be an asset for the Astros. In his time in Detroit, Fulmer made 89 starts. For his career, he has a 4.12 ERA as a starter, nothing to write home about.

The hope would be that signing Fulmer enhances the bullpen. But the biggest blow in losing Justin Verlander isn't his ERA, but his ability to eat innings and preserve the bullpen. The Astros rotation is still six-deep, but aside from Framber Valdez, who may be sitting out of the WBC to rest his shoulder after his 2022 workload, no pitcher on their staff has thrown more than Urquidy's 164.1 innings in 2022.

Lance McCullers Jr. threw 162.1 innings in his dominant 2021 season, but ended up with a forearm injury that cost him almost all of 2022.

It is paramount the Astros keep their arms fresh, especially with Hunter Brown still somewhat unproven. Fulmer would be able to throw out of the pen in a leverage role, eat innings as a middle reliver, or start in a pinch. His ability to be deployed as an emergency starter makes him a nice luxury.

As a righty, Fulmer wouldn't come with the previously alluded to inflated salary that Chafin or Hand would bring. Fulmer would make a great deal of sense in Houston at around $6 million AAV.

Again, the Astros current roster is likely what they bring into 2023, but if they are to sign another piece, Michael Fulmer is at worst case a proven insurance option, and best case, solidifies the bullpen even further.