Predicting where each of the remaining Astros free agents are going to sign

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While the Houston Astros have been very fortunate to weather the loss of some key players in free agency like George Springer and Carlos Correa in recent years, it does appear as though things are starting to come to a head with their roster. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are heading into the final years of their contracts with trade rumors swirling around both and Houston still has been unable to get Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez signed to extensions.

Fortunately, this offseason was fairly tame when it comes to free agent losses. The bullpen took a bit of a beating to be sure, but relievers are the easiest position to reload from the free agent market or trades. The lineup remains largely intact and the Astros look very strong going into 2024 unless they defy expectations and trade Bregman and/or Altuve.

That said, there is a certain amount of idle curiosity as to where the Astros' free agents are going to end up. There has already been some speculation that Houston could reunite with some of them while others will almost certainly be signing elsewhere based on the Astros' needs and moves this offseason.

Here is a look at the Astros' free agents that are still on the market and where they could end up.

Martin Maldonado

Thankfully, the chances of the Astros bringing Maldonado back went to near zero when they signed Victor Caratini to a two-year deal and committed to Yainer Diaz as their primary catcher. Even if Diaz struggles in 2024 (which is possible), Houston is in good hands at catcher as Caratini can hit a bit and is fine defensive catcher and game-caller.

Maldy didn't help his free agent case last year when he was one of the worst players in baseball, but catching is such a thin position that he will get a job somewhere. Right now, it appears as though the Red Sox are the most interested team at the moment. Given that Boston is going to have to overhaul their rotation and Maldonado is still really good at working with pitchers on gameplans, that could be a really nice landing spot for him. Hopefully he kills it wherever he ends up.

Phil Maton

Other relievers on Houston's roster get a lot more press than Phil Maton. That does make some sense as Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressley, and Hector Neris were all more valuable in terms of fWAR and often just had sexier relief appearances where they mowed through batters in big spots. However, Maton was an absolute workhorse for the Astros out of the bullpen with 3.00 ERA in 68 appearances in 2023.

Maton may have reached his ceiling last season, but he is going to have no shortage of suitors this offseason. The Cardinals have already checked in on him, but they are also pretty busy playing in the deep end of the starting pitching market. Honestly, a reunion with the Astros still feels like the most plausible outcome here. Houston needs relievers, they know exactly what they are getting in Maton, and he shouldn't be prohibitively expensive. Sometimes, the simplest solution is the correct one.

Ryne Stanek

Coming off an amazing 2022 season where he posted a 1.12 ERA and 3.02 FIP, Ryne Stanek had positioned himself for a massive payday this offseason. Unfortunately, he came back to earth in 2023 and his history of command issues and persistent problems with giving up homers is going to hurt his value on the market this offseason.

So far, there isn't any public interest in Stanek, although a guy with his kind of stuff is certainly getting phone calls. Houston probably wants to move on from him as giving up too many baserunners and too many hard hit balls is a bad combination. We'll guess that the Cardinals gobble him as a cheap option with upside that they pivot to after getting their rotation sorted out, although a return to the Rays where he played pretty well to start his career isn't out of the question.

Hector Neris

Coming off back to back strong seasons in the Astros bullpen, Hector Neris now finds himself as one of the better relievers on the market. He wasn't quite as good as his 1.71 ERA in 2023 suggests, but he has consistently missed bats at a high rate since 2016 and he clearly believes he is going to get paid given that he declined his player option with the Astros for next season.

Neris' inconsistent walk rates could be a little spooky for teams and he does have some less than ideal on the field incidents on his record that could present some character concerns. Neris is going to need to find a team that has money to spend, needs bullpen help, and has strong clubhouse leadership in place to keep him on the rails. The Cubs feel like the best fit right now, although Houston should still try to push to bring him back.

Michael Brantley

Finally, we come to Michael Brantley. For five seasons straight, Brantley was basically a lock to post a 120+ wRC+ every season at the plate. He has never been a masher, but he consistently puts the ball in play and has a strong approach at the plate that allows him to get the most out of what he has physically. Unfortunately, he is also now 36 years old and is coming off a lost season after struggles during shoulder surgery rehab.

Houston is trying to win next season and unfortunately, they can't rely on much from Brantley at this stage in his career. Brantley does seem to like signing short-term deals in states where taxes don't take too big a bite out of his paycheck and he is going to probably land with a team can't spend a ton, but is looking to add a bat to try to sneak in as a "last wild card spot" type. That is the Marlins to the T, so that is the guess here.

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