Predicting where each Astros free agent will sign in 2024

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Coming off yet another ALCS appearance, the Houston Astros appear to be in really strong shape heading into 2024. Their lineup is mostly set to return intact and, in theory, they should be getting guys like Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back from injury at some point next season.

However, they are also running out of time to continue to make their success sustainable. Not only do they have several key players about to enter their walk years in 2024, but they are also losing some notable names to free agency this offseason.

Houston Astros Free Agent Predictions

It is very, very early in the offseason, so making predictions on where guys could end up is tricky to say the least. However, we can make some informed guesses based on perceived offseason needs for clubs and how much payroll room those teams have. Here's a look at where the Astros' free agents could end up for the 2024 season.

Michael Brantley

Brantley's time with the Astros was mostly an overwhelming success. In his five seasons with Houston, Brantley hit .305 with an .828 OPS in 394 games with Houston. While he hasn't hit for much in the way of power since 2019, the guy can just flat out hit.

However, at 36 years old and coming off a difficult recovery from shoulder surgery, his time with the Astros should come to an end. That doesn't mean he won't garner interest, though, as the outfield bat market in this free agent class is very, very thin. A guy that can consistently produce with runners on base would look good in a Dodgers uniform to help out Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and LA will certainly be contenders next year, so they are the pick on a short-term deal.

Prediction: Dodgers - One year, $8 million

Martin Maldonado

While the organization loves Maldonado for his intangibles, it is going to be a relief that he SHOULDN'T be on the Astros' roster in 2023. He was one of the worst hitters in baseball this year which could be forgiven if not for the fact that his defense cratered this year as well. Yainer Diaz is the superior player by far and the Astros have already committed to giving him the bulk of the playing time at catcher next season.

Assuming Houston doesn't bring him back which seems likely right now, Maldy should be able to get job as a backup for a good team or a stopgap for a not-so-good one. Our guess is that he is a fit in Miami where they can't spend on much on players at all, but they do have a young, exciting pitching staff that Maldonado could mentor in the twilight of his career.

Prediction: Marlins - One year, $3 million

Ryne Stanek

Ryne Stanek has some interesting things going for him. He throws hard and gets a lot of value out of the pitch, misses bats at a high rate, and was lights out during the 2022 season where he posted a 1.15 ERA before coming back to earth in 2023. He walks too many guys to be trusted in the highest leverage situations, but this is a live arm.

His time in Houston has pretty clearly come to an end as there has been no indication whatsoever that the Astros are looking to bring Stanek back. However, his stuff is good enough to get a job in a big league bullpen. Our guess is the Cardinals who are going to need to add multiple arms both in the bullpen and their rotation and who seem to like guys that can throw hard.

Prediction: Cardinals - One year, $4.5 million

Hector Neris

In an ideal world, Neris would have exercised his $8.5 million player option and the Astros could have reveled in getting him at that price. However, after putting up 2.5 rWAR and a 1.71 ERA and despite the hiccups he encountered in the postseason this year, him doing so is incredibly unlikely unless the fallout from his altercation with Julio Rodriguez tarnished his reputation league-wide more than we think.

Houston would love to have Neris back to help anchor their bullpen, but he may have priced himself out of town with his performance this year. The Rangers are a real threat to sign Neris as they are coming off a World Series win and clearly aren't afraid to spend, but we are going to guess that the Cubs end up snatching him up as they look to get over the hump in a very winnable NL Central.

Prediction: Cubs - Three years, $39 million

Phil Maton

One of the unsung heroes for the Astros in 2023 was Phil Maton. While guys like Neris, Ryan Pressley, and Bryan Abreu got more attention, Maton was Mr. Steady with a 3.00 ERA in 68 appearances with Houston this past season. He strikes out better than a batter an inning and gets a lot of soft contact despite the fact that he throws his fastball consistently in the high 80's.

It wouldn't be crazy for Maton to return to the Astros next season as he wouldn't be very expensive and they are familiar with what he has to offer. However, his stuff isn't exactly analytics-friendly and other teams could offer him more. The Diamondbacks come to mind as a team that could use a guy in their bullpen that is tough to square up coming off their surprising run to the World Series this year

Prediction: Diamondbacks - Two years, $7 million

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