Predicting the Astros Opening Day Roster: Infield Edition

Opening Day is officially less than two weeks away, and we’re ready to make some predictions on the Astros Opening Day roster. Some position battles are yet to be decided, but we’ll give it a shot at predicting who comes out on top. 

Houston brings a loaded lineup and pitching staff into the 2023 season, but they will be down Lance McCullers Jr. and likely Michael Brantley when the season begins. A few players will make the Opening Day roster that likely won’t be on it once LMJ and Uncle Mike return. 

Of course, some names may not make it that deserve to, either because a less talented player is kept for contractual/option purposes, or so an arm can be stretched out as a depth starter in AAA. 

With that, let’s kick off our infield portion. 

Catcher: Martín Maldonado & Korey Lee

Catcher is the lone infield position where the Astros will carry two big-leaguers. Martín Maldonado is a lock to make the team, while prospects Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz are battling it out for the backup spot. 

Maldonado is quite simply one of the best game callers in baseball. He’s never going to be an even big-league average bat, but it’s arguable that no backstop means more to his staff than Maldy. His prep-work is unrivaled and he does an unbelievable job of guiding his pitchers through the lineup. In the last year alone, Maldy has caught a combined no-hitter, two immaculate innings, and a combined perfect game in the World Baseball Classic. He will be the Astros primary catcher. 

As for the backup, Lee & Diaz will come down to the wire battling it out. As of this writing, I lean towards Lee. His floor may be a little higher than Diaz, though his ceiling isn’t quite as high. Diaz has the potential to be the best hitting catcher in the game, but he still has work to do behind the plate. 

Diaz could benefit from more time getting everyday reps in Sugar Land while Lee could benefit from learning how to guide a staff and call a game under Maldy. 

Lee also has been fantastic this Spring, hitting .333 with an 1.151 OPS at the time of writing. He gained 12 pounds this offseason and has displayed the pop, with three of his six hits going for extra bases. 

We’ll see Diaz with the big league club somewhere down the line, but Lee should have the edge for Opening Day. 

First Base: José Abreu

José Abreu is possibly the most slept on signing of the offseason. The reigning champs went from a -0.3 bWAR at first base to a 4.2 bWAR and seemingly nobody noticed. At 36, Abreu may not hit 35+ home runs again in his career, though the Crawford Boxes are enticing, but he just hit 40 doubles last season, the second highest mark of his career. 

Baseball Reference projects 20 home runs and 31 doubles for Abreu with a clean .800 OPS. Seeing as Houston got a combined .236 average and .656 OPS from their first basemen last year, this is a massive upgrade to their lineup. 

Second Base: Jose Altuve

What even needs to be said about Jose Altuve? Anything behind his career statistics are basically fluff. Altuve won three batting titles from 2014-2017, led the league in total hits all four of those seasons, won the MVP in 2017, and yet somehow may be coming off of his most compete season in 2022. 

His 160 OPS+ tied for a career high and his 164 WRC+ were a career high. His 18 stolen bases in 2022 were his most since 2018, and more than his 2019-2021 totals combined. 25 may not be out of the question this year. With the bigger bases, look for the already aggressive on the basepaths Altuve to take even more chances this season.

A seventh Silver Slugger and even a top-MVP finish could be very much in play for the Astros leadoff hitter this season.

Third Base: Alex Bregman

We’re high on Alex Bregman heading into 2023. I expect to see a return to Bregman’s 2019 MVP form this year. He finally was healthy and locked in mechanically in 2022, and posted his best year since 2019. 

He topped his regular season performance in the postseason, and in search of either a long-term extension in Houston or a decade contract in free agency come 2024, look for Breggy to string together a full-season that leaves him a top-five MVP finisher. 

He also may very well play his way into Gold Glove contention at the hot corner, having finished last year in the 94th percentile in outs above average.