Predicting the Astros Home Run Leader

The question of home run leader for the 2023 Astros might be an obvious one, but a few twists could make it a real competition this year. If you ask who the home run leader for the Astros will be, most fans will shout Yordan Alvarez, and for good reason as Yordan led the team easily last year with 37.  

The biggest complication to the home run leader competition is that Jose Altuve is out until at least June.  Altuve hit 28 home runs last year, putting him in third behind Alvarez (37) and Tucker (30). Without Altuve leading off and Jeremy Peña getting more reps, could he play into the home run lead? He currently has two on the season as of Tuesday, and certainly is on pace to hit more than last season.  

The race, much like the RBI race is mainly between two players for the 2023 Astros. Yordan Alvarez hit 37 last year, 33 the year before, and 27 in 2019.  Alvarez is the odds on favorite and he currently has three home runs to start the year.  

The second big contender who is now tied for the league lead in home runs at four is none other than Kyle Tucker. Tucker hit 30 home runs each of the past two seasons and he will need a breakout year to best Alvarez, but so far is seems he is on a mission. I predict he will land at 35 and Yordan will end up with 41 to win it for the team, but not without hot competition from Tucker. Peña will likely end up in third place with about 25 home runs and Bregman will land in fourth at 24. Either way, the Astros power numbers will be just as good, if not even more so this year, as compared to last season and they will only get better once Altuve returns.