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Power Ranking the Four Astros Pitchers That Need to Step Up Most While Lance McCullers Recovers
Cristian Javier
In what world could a World Series hero and Cy Young candidate with a Baseball Savant page almost exclusively in at least the 90th percentile need to step up further? Is there even a level higher to go?
While not much more can be asked of Javier with regards to ERA, strikeouts, or even no-hitters, there is one specific area in which he needs to grow in order to blossom into a true ace. Javier must go deeper into ball games. As a pitcher that works out of the zone, Javier often works deep into counts, elevating his pitch count and limiting how long he lasts in his starts.
Even before McCullers was hurt, Houston was going to feel JV’s departure. Verlander was a workhorse, ensuring the bullpen was preserved every fifth/sixth day, whether he had his best stuff or not. Now down LMJ as well, Houston has an innings void to fill if their bullpen will be as dominant was it was in 2022. Houston needs the same bullpen performance if it is to repeat in 2023.
Javier has fluctuated between starter and reliever his first three years in the bigs. He’s never exceed even 150 innings If he is to truly become a bona fide ace and the Astros are going to have an intact bullpen come October, Javier needs to consistently go six innings per start and approach, or even surpass, the 175 innings threshold.
JP France
A 14th round draft pick, JP France has turned heads in the Astros organization and was just added to the 40-man roster last year to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. The Mississippi State product has worked as both a starter and a reliever, starting 53 minor league games and coming on in relief in 41.
His versatility could go a long way in weathering a storm like the loss of McCullers. Additionally, he’s gotten better as time has gone on, lowering his minor league ERA with his promotion. In 2 AAA seasons, France is 9-5 with a 3.77 ERA and has started 28 games. He got off to a bit of a bumpy start, but finished strong in 2022, throwing 73 innings from June through September and posting a 2.96 ERA over those four months.
France may be the least likely name to contribute on this list, but if he can take another step forward, the Astros have another Luis Garcia/Seth Martinez that emerges out of the minors as an unheralded arm but makes key contributions and proves themselves as a needed contributor. If that’s the route France goes, the Astros rotation and bullpen are bolstered even further.
Hunter Brown
In light of McCullers' injury, it's likely no player is counted on to step up more than Houston's top prospect--Hunter Brown. The flame throwing righty overpowered AAA hitters all season in AAA, earning PCL Pitcher of the Year honors before being called up in September.
In seven appearances, Brown went 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA and pitched his way onto the playoff roster.
Safe to say, Brown will rack up a much larger sample size in 2023. Valdez and Javier are locked in as co-aces at the top of the rotation. One would assume Garcia and Urquidy would bump up to 3/4 while Brown serves as the fifth starter with Lance out. If he outperforms the fifth spot, maybe he gets bumped up in the order.
But if he struggles, Houston could be in trouble. According to this Chandler Rome tweet, Dusty Baker didn't appear thrilled Houston opted not to add a starter this offseason. If another starter gets hurt or if Brown scuffles, what was once a perceived strength becomes a massive question mark. A strong start to the season from Brown alleviates all concerns and would allow Houston to continue chugging along full speed ahead.
The Astros farm system is already depleted. They don't have a ton of prospects to package together to acquire another starter. If Brown is up to the task, they won't even have to consider such a thing.
Forrest Whitley
No bigger question mark exists in the Astros system than Forrest Whitley. Should Houston convert him to a reliever? Is he anything more than a prospect to watch at this point in time? Do they try to sell low and at least get something in return?
2023 felt like the make or break year for Whitley even before LMJ went down. He may never have a chance to prove his worth than now. It sounds like Dana Brown is counting on this very thing happening:
We’re hoping Whitley takes a jump this year. It’s time for Whitley. I remember Whitley coming out of the Draft. Today I was watching him, and the ball looked like it was coming out pretty good. The slider looked pretty good. At some point, the kid’s going to have to take a jump, like Strider did for last year.
Whitley is putting in the work for this very thing to happen, as according to Kenny Van Doren, Whitley has a new pitch in his arsenal.
Source: Astros prospect Forrest Whitley added a splitter to his arsenal this offseason, dropping his changeup in the process.
— Kenny Van Doren (@thevandalorian) February 17, 2023
It’s something to look out for this spring, but there’s no guarantee Houston has him stick to the change.
The same pitcher that was at one-time a top-five prospect in the game has to still be in there. His raw stuff is simply too overpowering not to play.
Barring an absolutely dominant Spring Training, Whitley will likely start the season in AAA, where has has struggled over the last two seasons, posting a 9.26 ERA. But if he proves himself this spring, maybe he makes the Opening Day roster or leaves himself the next man up for a spot start in a long stretch with no days off or if another pitcher goes down.
Whitley could well be the most transformative piece of the puzzle in Houston. If he can finally tap into his potential this year, not only will Houston weather the loss of McCullers, but they'll elevate to new heights they may not even have thought possible during their six-year reign of terror throughout the league.