Pass Or Pursue: Deciding Which Astros Trade Deadline Targets Are Worth Going After

The Astros are 58-45, two games back of the Texas Rangers for the AL West division lead. All things considered, they're in a pretty remarkable spot. They've battled key injuries all season long, with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and José Urquidy all missing extended time. Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia are done for the year.

The three free agent contracts given out have been far from a success. José Abreu, though he's shown signs of regaining form recently, has not been the player the Astros thought they were signing. Rafael Montero is getting paid to be a top reliever in the game, yet he carries a 6.07 ERA. And Michael Brantley, who was supposed to be ready for Opening Day, still hasn't played. Their three contracts have amounted to -1.3 bWAR.

Yet here the Astros sit. They're in a great spot, and with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez both back from injury, they've just made two monster additions to their roster. They still could use another left-handed bat, a starter, and a leverage reliever or two. Let's take a look at who the Astros should pursue at the deadline and who they should pass on.

The Astros should target Alex Verdugo.

The red-hot Red Sox likely aren't going to sell at the deadline, but Dana Brown should make Chaim Bloom an offer he can't resist for Alex Verdugo. The left-handed corner outfielder is a dream Astro.

He's hitting .271 with a .772 OPS this year and is worth 11 defensive runs saved. For his career, he's worth 21 runs saved as a left fielder. An outfield of Verdugo, McCormick and Tucker would push runs across on offense while keeping them off the board defensively.

He'd bring balance to an Astros lineup that needs it, filling the role Michael Brantley was supposed to. He hits for average, lines the ball into the gap for doubles, and rarely strikes out. Houston needs just that. If the deadline ends with Verdugo in an Astros uniform, it's been a success.

The Astros should pass on Jeimer Candelario.

Jeimer Candelario is having a career year for the Nationals. He's been worth 3.0 bWAR and is hitting .256 with an .819 OPS, and he's a switch-hitter. What's not to love about him?

Simply, where is he going to play?

Alex Bregman is playing Gold Glove caliber defense at third base and has been a man possessed at the plate over the last two months.

And José Abreu, struggling or not, isn't going to get moved off of first base in the first year of a three-year contract. Candelario makes a great deal of sense, and would be an upgrade over their incumbent first baseman, who in the month of July has regressed again to a below league-average hitter.

Candelario will be highly sought-after at the deadline, and for good reason. But the Astros aren't the fit. A corner outfielder like Verdugo would be a much better add.

The Astros should add Michael Lorenzen.

Where there is smoke, there is a fire, and there seems to be plenty of smoke around Michael Lorenzen and the Astros.

For good reason. The Tiger's All-Star representative hasn't given up an earned run in his last three starts.

His 88th percentile fastball spin is fits the Astros M.O. perfectly. And he likely won't require the type of bidding war the Astros aren't equipped to win.

He's experienced as both a starter and reliever, and his swiss army knife versatility would be massive for Houston to keep the innings off of both starters and relievers alike down the stretch. Houston would be a great home for Lorenzen as the season comes to a close.

And speaking of experience as a starter and reliever...

The Astros should pursue Seth Lugo and Blake Snell and pass on Josh Hader.

The Padres are a trainwreck. Their roster is loaded, yet they sit 49-54 with a locker room that doesn't seem to like each other. Will they sell? Who knows. But they absolutely should. And if they do, the Astros should look for Seth Lugo.

Like Lorenzen, Lugo can start or come out of the pen. His 100th percentile curveball spin has had him linked to Houston forever. This may be the time for the Astros to make their move. He wouldn't be as expensive as Snell or Hader, and his versatility and ability to eat innings at a high level would go a long way towards keeping the Astros fresh down the line.

And Blake Snell needs no introduction. He's having his best year since winning the Cy Young in 2018. He's striking out 11.6 per nine, and has a sub-1.00 ERA since June. He'd immediately give the Astros another ace for October. But he's going to be costly. They should pursue him, but as a rental, he's not worth emptying the tank for.

And speaking of not worth emptying the tank, no matter how good Josh Hader may be, there's just not a world where the Astros should further empty their farm system for a reliever that would walk at the end of the season.

Brown should call San Diego to get Lugo, see if Snell can be had for an even feasible package, and not even ask about Hader.

The Astros should pursue Brent Suter, Steven Okert and Jason Foley for the bullpen.

We made the case for Suter and Foley earlier in the week. Both would be huge adds as a leverage arm for Houston. Suter would give the Astros the lefty Dusty Baker always covets, but he's not just a token lefty.

He carries a 2.51 ERA this year and can get both righties and lefties out (righties have a .496 against Suter this year). Suter's road ERA is 1.98 this season away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. There are few relievers that woukd upgrade the Astros bullpen in the same way Suter would.

If the Astros don't want to meet the price for Suter, who many teams will call on, Steven Okert is another intriguing lefty is the Marlins nosedive continues and they decide to sell. Okert has a 3.25 ERA and is striking out 12.3 per nine. He owns lefties and is decently effective against righties, holding them to a .694 OPS. He does come with team control through 2027. Okert is worth calling on.

The Tigers are believed to be taking calls on Foley, which would be a huge mistake, and also the epitome of the Tigers. Foley is under team control through 2028. If the Astros land Foley, they land a dominant reliever for years to come. In 44.1 innings, Foley has posted a 2.03 ERA is in the 91st percentile in xwOBA.

A reliever of his caliber with control would replace both Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek likely walking in free agency next year as well.

The Astros should pursue Mitch Keller and David Bednar.

The Pirates are for whatever reason taking calls on Mitch Keller and David Bednar. Dana Brown should be on the phone immediately.

Keller had a dominant first half in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his first 19 starts. His first two out of the break have been nightmarish, allowing 14 earned runs in 11 innings. Two bad starts shouldn't scare Houston away.

He's changed his pitch repertoire this year, throwing his four-seam less frequently and to far greater success, posting a run value of 8. He also added a cutter he has thrown 23% of the time, and like the rest of the league, has embraced the sweeper.

Getting Keller to Houston gives them a young and controllable arm for two-and-a-half seasons.

David Bednar also would be a massive add for Houston. The Pirates closer doesn't hit free agency until 2027, and would give Houston a wipeout leverage reliever for years to come. Over the last three seasons, Bednar has posted a 2.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, striking out 11.5 per nine. He's absolutely disgusting in the back of the bullpen, and would make every team in baseball better.

The Astros don't have any prospects that should be deemed untouchable, but they also shouldn't empty a shallow farm system for rentals. Keller and Bednar are far from rentals. Keller gives the Astros a true #3, and when coupled with a returning Urquidy, would allow them to keep innings off of Javier and Brown down the stretch. Bednar gives Houston another wipeout reliever, helping keep Abreu, Neris, Maton and Pressly fresh down the stretch.

That type of return is worth parting with some of their best prospects (and big league talent) over.

The Pirates farm system is absolutely loaded, but they are somehow lacking in outfield prospects. Bryan Reynolds is there for the foreseeable future, Jack Suwinski has had a breakout season, and Henry Davis is currently playing right field after coming up as a catcher, but with no reinforcements behind them, the Astros and their outfield depth could be a great suitor for Pittsburgh if they do sell.

Jake Meyers, Drew Gilbert, Jacob Melton, and Collin Barber would all head to Pittsburgh in a deal. Some combination of Spencer Arrighetti, Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Brandon Bielak and Miguel Ullola would likely head out as well.

It would be costly, but it's the type of move that solidifies the Astros as the class of the American League this season and keeps the window open for the next few years to come.