The Houston Astros and New York Mets finish a three game series with a rubber match on Wednesday afternoon.
The Astros will hope that Cristian Javier can stay in form on the mound against a Mets lineup that is still looking to find consistency, but Houston has a decisive edge againt Tylor Megill, the New York starter on Wednesday.
How should we bet this matchup? Here are the odds:
Mets vs. Astros odds, run line and total
Mets vs. Astros prediction and pick
Javier has been stellar of late, fresh off a shutout outing against the Nationals spanning six innings. However, his underlying metrics show some concern. He has a 2.90 ERA that is supported by a 4.03 ERA as he has stranded a high rate of batters (over 80%) and has an incredibly low home run (below 8%).
He'll face a Mets lineup that has showcased its pop in Houston, scoring 11 runs on Monday night. Pete Alonso is back in the lineup, who is the NL leader in home runs at 22 despite missing the past few weeks with a wrist injury.
However, Houston should be in line for a big offensive showing against Megill, who is struggling to find a punch out pitch this season. He is posting a career low K/9 rate in the big leagues and is allowing opponents to hit .322 on batted balls in play. Further, his 4.83 ERA is supported by a 5.82 xERA.
Given that the Astros strikeout at one of the five lowest in the big leagues, I believe it's ability to make contact is going to make it anohter poor outing for Megill.
I'm staying off the side and playing the over on Wednesday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.