Houston Astros playoff odds and magic number, Sept. 7

The Houston Astros are closing in on another division title and playoff appearance.
Sep 6, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) is charged with a
Sep 6, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) is charged with a / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

After the Houston Astros absolutely annihilated the Texas Rangers in a series sweep, things are looking really promising as the 2023 season enters the home stretch. Now that the Mariners have cooled off a bit, Houston has sole possession of the division lead by a game and are playing some of their best baseball at the moment.

With only 21 games left in the regular season, it is time to start thinking about the Astros' magic number for making the playoffs as well as winning the AL West.

Houston Astros Magic Number

Given how tight the AL playoff race is, the magic numbers involved here seem to imply that these races will be decided very late in the season. The Astros current magic number to win the AL West currently sits at 20 and is 17 to secure a wild card spot. Again, there is still a lot of baseball left and Houston will have to continue to play well the rest of the way to get favorable playoff seeding.

Houston Astros current playoff odds

As for the Astros' current playoff odds, things are looking very good. According to Fangraphs, Houston currently has a 98.2% chance of making the playoffs in 2023 and have a 67.5% chance of winning the division. A hat tip to the Texas Rangers for collapsing in spectacular fashion lately.

Looking at Baseball-Reference's playoff odds, things are looking similarly rosy for Houston. B-Ref has the Astros with a 96.3% chance of making the playoffs. Baseball-Reference likes the Astros' odds of winning the division a tad more than Fangraphs as they have them with a 67.9% chance in the American League West. For those wondering at home, B-Ref has the Astros with a 10.1% chance of winning the World Series with Fangraphs giving them a 14.5% shot.

In short, there is still time for things to go wrong for Houston, but the odds are definitely in their favor as we enter the final weeks of the season.

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