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Houston Astros First Half Report Card
With the first half of the 2023 season all but in the books, here is how the Astros grade out so far.
The first half is coming to an end and overall, the Houston Astros are in a pretty decent spot. As of July 4th, Astros sit at 47 wins with a +58 run differential that indicates that the team has underperformed is expected W-L by a little bit. Sure, it would be nice if the Astros were in first place right now, but that has a lot more to do with the Rangers playing out of their minds for most of the first half.
In a holistic sense, this is a very good baseball team that is in a good position to compete in the second half especially if they make solid moves at the trade deadline. It would be an added bonus if Texas could carry over some of their recent struggles to the second half, but we can't know for certain if that will end up happening.
Reading wins and losses is easy, but what we need to do now is to look at each area of this Astros roster and figure out how each have performed so far in 2023.
Here are the grades for the Houston Astros for the first half of 2023
We aren't going to grade each individual player here as that would frankly take too long and only be mildly interesting. Instead what we are going to do is look at the offense, starting pitching, bullpen, and defense as groups and assign grades to each of them while factoring in top end performance, depth, etc.
Without further adieu, here is how the Houston Astros grade out through the first half of the 2023 season.
Houston Astros Offense: B-
Despite being a huge part of why the Astros have perennially been contenders the last several years, the offense in 2023 has been fairly disappointing in comparison. Houston's position players currently rank 11th in the league by fWAR at 11.2. When you look at wRC+, the results are very similar as the Astros' 103 wRC+ is in a three way tie for 9th in MLB. By batting average, their .249 mark is in the middle of the pack this season.
These aren't bad numbers, per se, and some of it just isn't anyone's fault. Yordan Alvarez was only just recently overtaken as the top offensive performer on the team despite not playing in a game since the second week of June. Michael Brantley also has yet to play in a single game for Houston in 2023 as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery. That is a lot of offensive production to cover for any team.
While Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman have led the way offensively, there are certainly some guys that are weighing the numbers down. Jose Abreu has been significantly better lately, but his 78 wRC+ this season is way down from his career norms and definitely less than Houston wanted when they signed Abreu to a three year deal before the season. Martin Maldonado is another offender here as he has been bad on both sides of the ball in 2023 in route to a -0.9 fWAR first half for the Astros.
Overall, the offense has been fine if somewhat unexciting. Some injuries and underperformance have hurt them in the first half to be sure and they could use another power bat in the outfield, but giving Houston a B- feels right for what we have seen. They will probably need more than that to win the division, but we also haven't seen this group of players at their best yet in 2023.
Houston Astros Starting Pitching: B+
Despite losing Justin Verlander from their rotation, the Astros rotation has performed surprisingly well in 2023. In 85 games this season, Astros starters have put up 7.0 fWAR which is good for a three-way tie for 7th in all of baseball. By FIP, the news has been less good as Houston's rotation ranks 12th in the league at 4.23 this season. However, the results on the field have been better than that as their ERA as a team is fourth in MLB at 3.71.
A majority of the heavy lifting has been done by Framber Valdez who has become one of the best pitchers in the league. His 3.0 fWAR is top 4 in the league and he has posted a 2.49 ERA in 16 starts this season. Hunter Brown has performed well as well with a 3.76 ERA and 3.44 FIP in 91 innings this season.
Unfortunately, injuries have cost Houston in their starting rotation as well. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia are out for the season after both of them had surgery on their throwing arms. Jose Urquidy has also been out since late April with shoulder inflammation, but at least it sounds like he is about to head back out on rehab assignment and should return in July.
Given all of the injuries they have dealt with, earning a B+ is nothing to be ashamed of. Valdez is putting together a special season for Houston at the moment to, but there is just an understandable lack of depth at starting pitcher to grade them any higher than this. Hopefully Houston adds at least one starter at the deadline to help them out. At the very least, getting Urquidy back should provide a boost assuming he pitches well upon his return.
Houston Astros Bullpen: A-
One thing that has really lessened the sting of all of the injuries in the rotation has been the performance of the Houston bullpen. Astros' relievers have pitched the third fewest innings this season, but still have managed to accumulate the 5th highest fWAR amongst all bullpens in baseball at 3.1 in 2023. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league at 10.71 K/9 and their collective 3.54 ERA is fourth best in MLB.
Unlike the rotation which has been top heavy, the Astros' bullpen performance has been a team effort. Ryan Pressly, Phil Maton, Hector Neris, and Bryan Abreu have formed one of the best bullpen cores in all of baseball. Maton and Pressly have been particularly impressive as they both have the strikeout and walk rates you want to see from your late inning options.
If there is one quibble here, it is that the Astros' other big signing from last offseason, Rafael Montero, has been pretty bad out of the pen. He currently sports a 7.08 ERA in 35 appearances this season which is definitely not what the Astros had in mind when they gave him a three year, $34.5 million deal. Ryne Stanek has also walked too many batters this year, but you can't have everything we suppose.
Collectively, this is a very good bullpen. A- may seem like a pretty tough grade, but the Houston bullpen does lack a true shutdown reliever and that combined with Montero's struggles takes them down a small notch. If the Astros can add another quality reliever or two at the deadline, they will be more than equipped for the stretch run with the bullpen as a strength of the team.
Houston Astros Defense: B+
Finally, we come to the Astros' defense and it has been a bit off a mixed bag to be sure. Overall, the Astros rank sixth in Fangraph's defensive rating which is really strong. However, some of the other defensive metrics don't like them quite as well. If you look at Outs Above Average for the squad, Houston has 8 on the season which is good for a three way tie for eighth in the league. Still pretty good, but way off what the Padres (23), Rangers (16), and Brewers (16) have done in 2023.
The problem here, though, is that the defense has basically been a one man show for the Astros. Jake Meyers has personally accounted for 7 Outs Above Average this season and is far an away the leader in FG defensive rating on the team. Jeremy Pena, Mauricio Dubon, and Alex Bregman have also been some defensive bright spots. Unfortunately, Jose Altuve, Martin Maldonado, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Abreu have all hurt more than they have helped defensively this season.
We don't want to discount the overall production which is why we went with a B+ grade, but the lack of defensive depth this season is pretty concerning. When the Astros have to play a guy who sports a 95 wRC+ and .225 batting average this season and was worse last year in Meyers to get a true plus defender on the field, that isn't great. If/when Houston adds an outfield bat at the deadline, hopefully they can defend a bit as well.
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