Houston Astros: 2 contract extensions they need to make and 1 to avoid

The Houston Astros are in a pretty interesting place as an organization right now. They are coming off a World Series title and remain in the thick of the playoff chase. However, they have a new general manager in Dana Brown after ownership basically forced out his predecessor, have some very real competition in their division with the Rangers off to a hot start and the Angels and Mariners lurking, and they are slowly seeing the guys that have kept them competitive the last few years either get older or move on to different organizations.

Turnover on any team is to be expected and no team realistically can expect to keep their window of contention open forever. However, this is still a really good baseball team that can remain good for a while if they make the right moves even as other teams rise and become contenders themselves.  

The trick, of course, is picking the right players to offer longer term deals in order to solidify the team’s core and to know when to get the most out of others and understand that the financial commitment to keep them around just isn’t worth it.

Which extensions do the Astros need to make and which ones should they avoid?

Fortunately for the Astros, Brown comes from an organization in Atlanta that is quite good at identifying opportunities for long-term deals while avoiding very large, lengthy deals for players that may not be worth it over their duration. The obvious question now is: who should the Astros keep and who should they let go. While we won’t be doing a complete accounting of the roster in terms of “stay vs go”, here are two players that the Astros should do everything they can (within reason) to keep around and one contract extension they should avoid.

Extension to make: Kyle Tucker

This is an obvious one as Kyle Tucker’s name has been very much on folks minds when it comes to contract extensions. Indeed, the front office was very candid when they expressed a desire to lock Tucker up long-term and it is not difficult to see why. Kyle is coming off back to back seasons where he has put up nearly 5 fWAR, hit 30 home runs, and has been a consistent performer on both sides of the ball.

2023 hasn’t been QUITE as good for Kyle thus far, but he has still been a well above average big league hitter thanks to his combination of power and speed. Noticeable improvements in Tucker's walk rate and strikeout rate point to likely improvement over a larger sample and the months of June and August have usually been when he is at his best during his career. More importantly, Tucker is just 26 and will still have plenty of prime years left that would be covered by a potential extension.

There are certainly some hurdles to a potential deal, though. First, Tucker is represented by Excel who is not exactly known for leaving money on the table. Many are thinking that for a deal to get done, he is going to need a deal in excess of $200 million which is definitely a large financial commitment especially for an owner like Jim Crane.

Secondly, the timing right now is a little difficult for an extension as Kyle still has two years of team control after the 2023 season. It may make more sense for both sides to wait for at least one more arbitration hearing/settlement to get a better sense of his current value and then go from there.

All of that said, Tucker is the kind of dynamic young player that Houston should be looking to build around. Everyday players that can defend, hit, hit for power, and produce on the base paths are hard to come by and Kyle checks all of those boxes. There is certainly a chance that he could become too expensive or require too many years in a deal, but the Astros should make a good faith effort to try.

Extension to avoid: Alex Bregman

To be clear, this isn’t an indictment of the work that Alex Bregman has done with the Astros to this point. He is a two-time All-Star, has a pair of 8+ fWAR seasons under his belt, is a strong defender at third, and is coming off a strong season in 2022 where he posted an .820 OPS and 5.5 fWAR. However, there are some real reasons to avoid extending Bregman any further than the Astros already have.

The extension that bought out Bregman's first three years of arbitration also has him making $28.5 million this year and next. That contract has been a bargain so far especially with his production in 2022, but his next extension isn’t likely to be at any discount with Scott Boras as his agent. There is no denying that Bregman is a valuable player, but once a contract gets to a certain point, there are going to be opportunity costs especially for a team that is somewhat payroll constrained like Houston. Is it worth keeping Bregman at the cost of not being able to fill other spots on the roster? Our guess is no.

The other problem is that Bregman is showing some signs that he is beginning to decline. His average exit velocity is starting to creep slowly downward, he isn’t barreling pitches as much, and he hasn’t hit more than 23 homers since 2019. He does still have a really good walk rate and elite K-rate along with his usual excellent defense, but it is clear that Alex isn’t hitting the ball hard as much as he used to. Investing a lot of money in a guy who will be 30 next season and is already seemingly declining is problematic.

In the end, everything comes down to cost. If Bregman is willing to do a shorter term deal that doesn’t break the bank, then by all means do it. However, if the Astros find themselves needing to give him a long-term deal with a high AAV to keep him from walking, they should let him go after his current deal runs out after the 2024 season.  

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