Guardians vs. Astros prediction and odds for Tuesday, August 1 (Trust Valdez at Home)

Framber Valdez has a dream matchup today against the Cleveland Guardians without their best hitter against lefties.
Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44)
Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, the Houston Astros started off its series with the Cleveland Guardians by getting back into the win column. Houston is now just a half game behind the Rangers at 60-47. The Guardians despite a soft-sell are still a game behind the Twins in the Central at 53-54. Both teams are looking to leapfrog its division rivals on Tuesday with a win.

The Astros will go to their ace in the second game of this series. Framber Valdez will make his 21st start for Houston and comes into this one at 8-7 with a 3.29 ERA. Valdez will be opposed by Gavin Williams. The Cleveland rookie is 1-2 in seven starts with a 3.35 ERA. 

After their win yesterday, the Astros are favored again at home. 

Guardians vs. Astros odds, run line and total

Guardians vs. Astros prediction and pick

Framber Valdez is great and should thrive on Tuesday. The Guardians traded away Amed Rosario for Noah Syndergaard, who left his Cleveland debut with an injury on Monday. Losing Rosario is a tough blow for this Guardians offense.

Cleveland is 28th in team OPS against lefties because of the amount of left-handed hitters in its lineup. The team also don’t have much power against lefties. Rosario was leading the club in OPS against southpaws if you exclude David Fry who has just 32 at-bats against lefties.

Valdez could be a bit of a unique case though because of his reverse splits, lefties actually have a higher OPS against him than righties do this year. That comes in significantly less at-bats though, so it can safely be assumed that only the best lefties are staying in the lineup and that can pretty easily explain a .783 OPS in 76 at-bats all year. 

Valdez shouldn’t have much trouble with Cleveland and Williams will almost certainly have trouble with Houston’s lineup, especially Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez homered yesterday, his second in his five games back from injury. Over that stretch he is hitting .389. Give me Houston and I like them to win big. 

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