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Grading the Houston Astros' last 8 first round draft picks
The Houston Astros have had some big MLB draft success recently, but wow have they missed on some picks, too.
It was not that long ago when the Houston Astros were one of the absolute best teams at extracting value out of their draft picks. Their bleeding edge analytics department and some excellent scouting resulted in forming the core of one of the best teams in all of baseball over the last several years.
Unfortunately, the Astros haven't exactly been able to replicate that success recently because, as punishment for the sign stealing scandal, they had to forfeit their first round picks from the 2020 and 2021 drafts. That is a heavy price to pay to be sure and it severely impacted the team's ability to put together quality draft classes in recent years.
Fortunately, all of that is behind Houston now and with the 2023 MLB draft set to begin on July 9th, we thought we would take a look back at the last eight first round draft picks the Astros made and grade them based on how they have turned out so far. Here are the eight picks.
Astros 2015 First Round Pick: Alex Bregman
The Astros had an embarrassment of riches in the 2015 draft as they received the second overall pick for failing to sign the top overall pick, Brady Aiken, the previous year. They used that pick to select Alex Bregman and it is safe to say that has gone well. Multiple All-Star appearances, two top 5 MVP finishes, and is still one of the better third baseman in the league. This is an easy W.
Grade: A
Astros 2015 First Round Pick: Kyle Tucker
The Astros also had the fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft and they used it on a prep outfielder from Florida by the name of Kyle Tucker. Tucker hasn't been as good as Bregman and it took him a bit to get going, but now he is one of the biggest contributors in the Astros' lineup. If you have a guy that you want desperately for the team to give a contract extension to, you did well in picking the guy in the first place.
Grade: A
Astros 2015 First Round Pick: Daz Cameron
The Astros' final first round pick in 2015 was in the comp round where they spent $4 million to sign Daz Cameron, a high school outfielder from Georgia. Daz was one of the top draft prospects in the class and the Astros were able to push him down to the comp round because they were willing and able to pay his salary demands because of their inflated draft bonus pool that year.
Cameron was long on raw talent, but never really figured things out sadly as he struggled to hit consistently in pro ball. After not making past low-A with the Astros, he was included in the trade that brought Justin Verlander to the Astros in 2017. Daz would have an up and down minor league career with Detroit and eventually make it to the majors, but didn't end up doing much and ended up getting claimed off waivers by the Orioles. $4 million is a lot to spend on a guy that can't even stick in the big leagues at all.
Grade: D
Astros 2016 First Round Pick: Forrest Whitley
This one is a bit of a bummer. The Astros had the 17th overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft and they selected Whitley out of the Texas high school ranks. This pick was looking amazing for a while as many considered him to be the top pitching prospect in all of baseball and he was on the fast track to the big leagues.
Unfortunately, things have not been as good recently. Whitley got suspended for 50 games for violating MLB's drug prevention and treatment program in 2018 and then missed the 2021 season because he had to have Tommy John surgery. He is now nursing a lat injury that is going to keep him out a few months and it sounds like he could be getting shifted to the bullpen when he returns. There is plenty of "what might have been" with this one.
Grade: C
Astros 2017 First Round Pick: J.B. Bukauskas
In 2017, the Astros were picking 15th overall and decided to go with JB Bukauskas out of the University of North Carolina. Bukauskas' stuff was worthy of being picked higher than this, but there were some concerns that his size and effort in his delivery would force him to move to the bullpen eventually.
Bukauskas pitched pretty well with the Astros despite dealing with some injuries, but was ultimately traded to the Diamondbacks in the deal that brought Zack Greinke to Houston. Bukauskas would indeed end up getting moved to the bullpen and he is currently bouncing around the Brewers organization. Houston got some value out of the pick at least, but picking a reliever in the first round of the draft kinda stinks.
Grade: C
Astros 2018 First Round Pick: Seth Beer
For 2018, the Astros were coming off a World Series win and while the sign stealing scandal hadn't happened yet, they were still picking low at #28 because of their high finish. Ultimately, they settled on one of the more famous college players in Seth Beer out of Clemson who was well-known to have some prodigious power in his bat. However, concerns that his hit tool and approach would not work in the professional ranks led to him falling to Houston.
Sadly, Beer has not amounted to much as a pro just yet. He actually played really well in the lower levels of the minor leagues for Houston and made it all the way to Double-A before he was included in the same trade that brough Greinke over. He continued to hit through the 2021 season in Triple-A and did make his big league debut with Arizona, but big league pitchers ate him up and he ultimately got sent down to the minor leagues and cleared waivers in 2023. Not a terrible pick, but not great, either.
Grade: B
Astros 2019 First Round Pick: Korey Lee
The last first round pick that Houston made in the first round before their two year hiatus was Korey Lee at number 32 overall out of UC-Berkeley. Lee had some gaudy numbers in college and the Astros even then recognized that they had a long-term need at catcher.
Lee is still kicking around the Astros' farm system these days and has been hitting pretty well in Triple-A this season despite some concern with his swing and miss tendencies. The issue is that his defensive game leaves something to be desired and there is no shortage of doubters of his ability to play catcher at the big league level. Still, there is some hope that he is a big league bat of some sort and if he can figure out the ins and outs of catching, he has a cannon of an arm.
Grade: B
Astros 2022 First Round Pick: Drew Gilbert
After their two year timeout from picking in the first round of the draft, Houston was back at it with the 28th overall pick in 2022. This time, they again turned to the college ranks with Drew Gilbert out of Tennessee. His high energy style of play along with some tantalizing tools had Houston very excited to land him in the draft as a guy who could excel on both sides of the ball.
So far, the results have been precisely what the Astros wanted. Gilbert has already established himself as Houston's top overall prospect with an .824 OPS this season so far. He has struggled a bit so far in Double-A at the plate, but we aren't going to read too much into that just yet. Gilbert is looking like a guy that could be good for Houston for a long time.
Grade: Still too early, but is looking like at least a B, if not an A
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