Grading the Astros' last 5 first-round picks in the MLB Draft

It is officially draft season, and while the Houston Astros haven't made huge waves in the draft recently, especially during their punishment for the sign stealing scandal, there is no denying that the Astros' ability to draft well has made a huge impact on their roster over the last several years.

Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Joey Loperfido, and Hunter Brown are just a few of the current Astros that came to the team via the draft, and that doesn't include past success stories that are no longer with the team. This is an organization that generally knows what they want in draft picks and how to develop them.

However, it is fair to wonder, given the current state of the Astros' farm system, how well their more recent top picks are doing, especially as the 2024 MLB Draft approaches. Let's take a look at how the Astros' last five first-round picks went (note: Houston did not have first round picks in 2020 or 2021).

Brice Matthews (2023)

Matthews was a bit of an enigma before the draft because some scouts wondered if his offensive numbers from college were real based on the conference he played in. However, Houston loved his athleticism, and decided to snatch Matthews up with their first round pick last year.

Any concerns that Matthews wouldn't be able to hack it as a pro have quickly gone by the wayside. After struggling a little bit immediately after the draft, Matthews is now slashing .284/.399/.500 with eight homers and 16 stolen bases while blasting his way all the way to Double-A in 2024.

Present Grade: A (but incomplete) - Matthews is already at Double-A and is putting up real numbers against more advanced pitching. That said, it is still too soon to take a victory lap until more information is out on him. We'll need to see him keep this up.

Drew Gilbert (2022)

Gilbert is a tough one to gauge, because the former No. 28 overall pick has had a bit of a rollercoaster career as a pro. He started off hot almost immediately after getting drafted out of Tennessee, but was also coming back from an elbow injury before his career took a turn. Gilbert, in a blink, became a Met in the deal that brought Justin Verlander back to the Astros.

With the Mets, Gilbert had posted a .681 OPS to start the year at Triple-A before going on the IL. He hasn't played in a game since early April, and while the hope was his hamstring injury would only keep him out until late May, that obviously isn't how things have turned out.

Present Grade: B - This is a toughie because Gilbert played pretty well in the Astros system, but he is far from a sure thing, the Astros did trade him away pretty quickly, and now he is hurt again. That said, Gilbert still seems like a really good value where the Astros picked him, even with the injury issues.

Korey Lee (2019)

Before Yainer Diaz came on to the scene, the Astros' catcher of the future was supposed to be Korey Lee. Picked out of Cal in the first round of the 2019 draft, Lee was known as a guy that had a cannon for an arm and real raw power, but whose hitting mechanics would require a bit of work to actually hit as a pro.

After a couple of decent seasons in the low minors, the shine started to wear off of Lee. He was still hitting enough to clear the low offensive bar for catchers, but he was no longer considered a can't-miss catching prospect when the Astros traded him away in the Kendall Graveman deal, especially with Diaz passing him on the depth chart.

Present Grade: C - Lee has made it to the big leagues with the White Sox, but he isn't exactly showing out with a .636 OPS. Houston got some value out of him with the trade and got their catcher of the future in Diaz, but this feels like a wasted opportunity when Gunnar Henderson was still on the board and was taken shortly after Houston's pick.

Seth Beer (2018)

Younger fans may not remember the craze that was Seth Beer's time at Clemson. It seemed he was homering or at least getting a clutch hit every day in college. However, scouts did not love his physical tools or his defensive projection. The Astros still saw enough value in his bat to pick him at the bottom of the first round in 2018.

After a really strong start to his minor league career in the low minors, Beer's flaws started getting more and more exposed as his ascended the minor league ladder. However, he played well enough to become one of the centerpieces in the Zack Greinke deal with the Diamondbacks. Since then, he has failed to establish himself as a big leaguer, and is currently at Triple-A with the Pirates.

Present Grade: D+ - It feels like the Astros got too clever with this pick, as they thought they knew better than the scouting consensus on Beer. They did at least trade him as part of the deal for Greinke, but abandoning ship on a first-round pick a year after drafting him isn't a great look, especially given how Beer has turned into a quad-A player.

JB Bukauskas (2017)

This is the highest draft pick on this list, but that doesn't mean it was the best by a wide margin. JB Bukauskas had some of the best raw stuff in the 2017 draft class, especially among college arms, but there were a lot of concerns with his arm action and size, leading many to project him to go to the bullpen. The Astros couldn't ignore that fastball/slider combo of his and picked him 15th overall.

Unfortunately, Bukauskas never got much of a chance to shine with the Astros. He suffered an injury in 2018 that limited him to 14 starts, and he was also sent to Arizona in the aforementioned Greinke trade along with Beer. Since then, Bukauskas did make the expected move to the bullpen and has bounced around the league while dealing with injuries. Currently, he's with the Brewers organization.

Present Grade: C-: One could live with a pitcher with Bukauskas' upside ending up as a reliever as a first-round pick. However, the injury concerns have proven to be real, and spending such a high pick on Bukauskas when All-Stars Heliot Ramos and Tanner Houck were still on the board is pretty rough.

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