Five Surprising Stats From the Astros in April

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The Astros finished the month of April with a 15-13 record, good for second in the AL West. They successfully navigated the first month of the season without Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley. That they did so with a record above .500 speaks volumes.

To stay afloat this month, they had multiple players overachieve. That said, some underachieved in shocking fashion.

Let's take a look at the five most shocking Astros statistics from the month of April.

Houston Astros v Tampa Bay Rays / Julio Aguilar/GettyImages

#1 Surprisingly good stat: Mauricio Dubón racks up 0.9bWAR

Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley were supposed to tag-team second base while Jose Altuve recovered. Dubón turning into Pete Rose ensured that didn't happen.

We could have picked his hitting streak of his batting average, but Dubón's WAR seemed like the best way to encompass his first month. Last year Dubón posted a -0.2 bWAR.

Through one month of the season, his bWAR is 0.9, tied for second-most on the team. Show of hands: who had Mauricio Dubón posting a higher WAR than names like Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Kyle Tucker? If your hand is up, you're probably lying.

Take a bow, Mauricio. Houston couldn't have navigated this month without you.

Toronto Blue Jays v Houston Astros / Logan Riely/GettyImages

#1 Surprisingly bad stat: José Abreu posts the sixth-lowest OPS in the MLB

For as shockingly great as Mauricio Dubón has been, the Astros prized free-agent signing has been just the opposite. Only five big leaguers posted a worse OPS than José Abreu in the month of April.

A notorious slow starter, Abreu's .536 OPS is startlingly bad, even for a guy that gets off to slower starts. His $19 million a year contract isnt lightening the pressure. He was brought in to drive in runs, and instead has done virtually no damage for the Astros while batting cleanup. His woes at the plate have amounted to a -0.7 WAR.

If Houston is to repeat as World Champs, they'l need Abreu to start hitting like the player they believed they were signing.

#2 Surprisingly good stat: Hunter Brown records three-separate seven inning starts

Hunter Brown is the Astros next big thing. He dominated in the minor leagues and he dominated in his small-sample-sized September callup. After his childhood idol, Justin Verlander, left in free agency, Brown was left with some Texas-sized expectations on his shoulder.

While his counting stats are better than Dusty Baker and Dana Brown could have asked for, it's been his length that is most surprising. Three times in April, the rookie starter completed seven innings in a start. His most recent was against the Tampa Bay Rays, the most potent lineup in the game. Brown blanked them for seven innings. Rookies just don't do that.

His 0.8 WAR is the highest among pitchers on the team, and across baseball, only Framber Valdez has matched Brown with that many starts of seven innings pitched.

His ERA is great, he demonstrates great poise, and he misses bats but Brown growing into a workhorse before our eyes has been a great surprise this early in his career.

#2 Surprisingly bad stat: David Hensley hits .143

David Hensley was an on-base machine for Sugar Land last season, forcing his way onto the Astros roster as a late season call-up. In his big league debut, Hensley hit .345 with a 1.027 OPS, earning his way onto the playoff roster, where he picked up multiple base hits in the World Series.

He seemed cool, calm and collected, and no moment had rattled him. I projected him to morph into the next Marwin Gonzalez, an actual offensive threat in a utility role for Houston.

Instead, he's hit .143. His 15 OPS+ is nightmarishly bad. His .161 slugging percentage is actually inflated from a double last night that was an incredibly generous scoring decision from the official scorekeeper.

Once Altuve is back, Dubón likely returns to a utility role and Hensley finds himself out of a job. What a turn of events from 2022.

Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves / Alex Slitz/GettyImages

#3 Surprisingly good stat: Phil Maton posts a 0.31 WHIP

Phil Maton has been a bit of a mixed bag since arriving in Houston at the 2021 trade deadline. He was brutal upon arriving in Houston, posting a 4.97 ERA. Then he became unhittable in the Astros run to the World Series.

Hopes were high the cold-blooded Maton would build off of the postseason, but he was a forgotten man in Houston's lights out bullpen, posting a 3.84 ERA. He broke his hand in the penultimate series of the season, punching a locker after allowing a hit to his little brother, keeping himself off of the playoff roster.

So naturally he comes back as one of the best relievers in baseball. In 13 innings of work, Maton has allowed only three hits and walked only one, good for a 0.31 WHIP. Last year he walked over three batters per nine and gave up nearly eight hits per nine innings of work. This year he's been untouchable, not allowing his first earned run until the final day of the month.

His Statcast metrics don't project much of a drop-off either: 99th percentile in average exit velcoity, 98th percentile in hard hit rate, 97th percentile in xwOBA/xERA and walk rate, and 95th percentile in xBA, xSLG and strikeout rate.

We could have been convinced he would get off to a good start. But this has been much more. Maton has been elite.

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