Five Players The Astros Need More Production From Before The End of The Season
If the Astros are going to repeat as AL West and World Series champs, these five players will need to up their production down the stretch.
The Astros enter Wednesday night three games back in the AL West. They've received fantastic performances from breakout rookies like J.P. France and Yainer Diaz, as well as a massive uptick in production from players like Chas McCormick. As the Astros have battled injury all year, it's been unsung heroes that have kept them afloat.
With 48 games to go, if they're going to make up their deficit, they'll need more than unsung heroes to produce.
These five Astros need to play better the remainder of the season.
Disclaimer: Martín Maldonado and José Abreu aren't on this list. At this point, they are what they are: old players that aren't producing at the plate or in the field. In the case of Abreu, he's the worst qualified player in the MLB by fWAR. It's on the coaching staff to make a change rather than hope for some out of nowhere production.
The Astros need more from Jeremy Peña.
Jeremy Peña was never going to be able to replicate his success last October over a 162-game season. The ALCS and World Series MVP was absolutely incredible in the playoffs, but he had an unsustainable level of production.
While he wasn't going to hit 35 home runs with a .300+ average this year, there was hope he would improve on his pitch selection, continue to mash fastballs, and lay off the down and away slider. Needless to say...that hasn't happened.
Peña is hitting .244 with a .676 OPS and 86 OPS+. Since July 5th, he has three extra base hits, all of which are doubles. He hasn't homered in over a month. His production against the fastball has absolutely plummeted.
And not only has he regressed at the plate, but the reigning Gold Glover was worth 16 defensive runs saved last year. This season he has been worth 0.
If the Astros are going to make noise down the stretch, they're going to need more from their shortstop.
The Astros need consistency from Alex Bregman.
In 2019, Alex Bregman was quite possibly the best hitter on the planet, leading all of the MLB in WAR and finishing runner-up to Mike Trout in the AL MVP voting.
While Bregman will likely never return to that level, the emergency of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker means he doesn't necessarily have to. What the Astros need is consistency. Bregman has been far too streaky this season.
At times, opposing teams can't get the guy out. At other times, he does minimal damage beyond the occasional walk. Bregman hit .219 with a .697 OPS the first month of the season. He followed that up in May with four home runs and a .749 OPS. June and July were much more promising. Breggy hit 11 home runs over the two months, finishing with an .830 OPS.
His August, though early, is off to a very slow start. He's hitting .154 with 0 extra-base hits in his first seven games.
To emphasize his streakiness, over the last 28 days, Bregman is hitting .270 with an .858 OPS. But over the last 14, he's hitting .186 with a .653 OPS. Two weeks ago, he was on base and doing damage every time up, as evidenced by his inflated OPS for the month even amidst a slump. Now he's struggling.
They don't need Bregman to hit 40 bombs and contend for an MVP like he did in 2018 and 2019. They just need him to do damage with consistency and hover around an .820-.850 OPS the rest of the way.
The Astros need the Phil Maton of the first half back.
Houston traded for Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline to help deepen a shallow bullpen. In the first half, Bryan Abreu, Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryan Pressly were called on seemingly every night.
The overworking of Maton appears to have done a number. Maton's 52 appearances are tied for 4th most in the American League. Through the first two months of the season, he was borderline unhittable, posting a 0.69 ERA in March/April and 0.66 in May. He finished the first half with a 2.44 ERA.
The second half has been nightmarish. It may be the fatigue wearing on him, but Maton has lost the ability to find the zone. He's walked 12 batters in his last 11.2 innings of work. His fastball simply isn't good enough to compensate for not finding the zone.
In his first 11 games of the second half, Maton has a 6.75 ERA. That's just not going to get it done. Houston needs an effective Phil Maton back if they're going to make noise down the stretch.
The Astros need ace Cristian Javier back.
Cristian Javier was one of the best pitchers on the planet last year. He used his "invisiball" fastball and slider combination to post a 2.54 ERA and 11.7 strikeouts per nine with a 0.95 WHIP. He started two combined no-hitters, one of which came in Game 4 of the World Series.
He signed a contract extension this offseason and was a preseason AL Cy Young candidate. With the season 2/3 of the way through, Javier currently has a 4.39 ERA. He's never finished a year with an ERA above 3.55.
His three starts from June 21 to July 3 were especially nightmarish. Javier allowed 18 earned runs in 10.2 innings of work after his velocity and VAA diminished.
He's still been a little rocky his last three starts, but his velocity and arm angle have returned since the Astros built in more rest for him. Their return to a six man rotation will help limit Javier's work load. They need the move to pay dividends.
When Javier is right, he can't be touched. No team wants to face JV, Framber and Javier in the first three games of a playoff series if Javier (and Framber) are on their a-game. Houston needs him to find his a-game ASAP.
The Astros need reliability out of Ryne Stanek.
It's hard to believe Ryne Stanek is the Astros single season record holder for lowest ERA. Stanek finished 2022 with a 1.15 ERA, but found himself the odd-man out in the bullpen come October. His 5.1 walks per nine were just too much of a chance to take.
His 3.19 xERA was still very good, but shows he was a prime candidate for regression. He's done that this year, posting a 4.50 ERA.
Stanek has always been an effectively wild pitcher, consistently touching triple digits on the radar gun. He's never going to be Greg Maddux, but the Astros need him in the zone more often. If the bullpen is going to have any bullets left come October, more arms than just Pressly, Abreu and Neris will need to get outs.
If Stanek can be a roughly 3.00-3.50 ERA pitcher the rest of the way and trim his walks per nine from five to four, the Astros bullpen is in business.