Dream Astros starting rotation for the 2024 season

The Houston Astros haven't been built like many championship juggernauts throughout baseball history. They've avoided long contracts, they let home grown talent walk, and they tend to go more for the under the radar acquisitions than the big splash.

While the Rangers just spent $800 million in two off-seasons to revamp their roster and win a World Series, the Astros would never do such a thing. Jim Crane's aversion to spending has made their sustained excellence all the more impressive.

But what if he took the governor off of Dana Brown? What if he didn't treat the CBT as a hard cap and actually assembled the best roster possible?

Houston's starting rotation has long been one of their strengths. Their 2018 rotation of Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. was simply outrageous. What if Houston realized how weakened by injury and inexperience their 2023 rotation was and aggressively improved it this off-season?

Dream Astros starting rotation for the 2024 season

With Luis Garcia likely to miss most of the 2024 season as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, is there still a path to a six-man rotation?

Let's look at the Astros dream (and still semi-realistic) rotation for 2024.

Ace: Justin Verlander

Yes, Justin Verlander is officially on the wrong side of 40. Yes, he has 18 years of big league experience on his right arm. But are you really going to bet against him?

The Astros re-acquiring Justin Verlander at the 2023 trade deadline was what pushed them over the edge to a division title. Had Houston given him any run support whatsoever in game 1 of the ALCS, he's likely their Game 1 World Series starter and padding an already impressive playoff resume.

While Verlander didn't re-create his 2022 Cy Young season, he went 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 2023. His strikeout totals are down, but no pitcher in the game makes in-game adjustments on the fly as seamlessly as JV. His ability to get double play balls in the ALDS against Minnesota after recording only eight all season show how adept JV is at finding ways to get outs.

There are still very few pitchers in the game more trusted in a big game than Verlander. Unless he absolutely falls off a cliff in 2024, he is again the Astros ace.

#2: Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez woke up at the All-Star break cruising to a top finish for the AL Cy Young. In fact, had Dusty Baker not wanted to rest Valdez, he would have started the All-Star Game for the AL.

Then the second half implosion happened. After a 2.51 first half ERA, Valdez recorded a 4.66 second-half ERA. This could be attributed to the pitch clock, it could be attributed to having every one of his starts caught by the worst defensive catcher in the MLB, and it could be attributed to his increase in velocity diminishing the effectiveness of his sinker.

The answer likely is evenly distributed across all three.

After carrying an incredible workload over the last three seasons, Valdez can use this off-season to rest and reset. Bad second half or not, he's still the same pitcher that dominated the 2022 postseason, finished top-five in Cy Young voting in 2022, and has one of the most durable arms in the game.

With a contract extension and potential free agency looming, look for first-half Valdez to show up again in 2024. If he's on, very few pitchers on the planet are better. When Framber is clicking, there are very few #2's in the game better.

#3 Dylan Cease

The Astros have been connected to Dylan Cease for a while now, and coming off of a down season in Chicago, it's time to strike while the iron is hot.

Poor season or not, Cease still has the potential to be one of the most electric pitchers in the game. He is only one season removed from finishing runner-up to Justin Verlander in the 2022 Cy Young race after recording a 2.20 ERA.

Cease's 2023 was rather forgettable, posting a 4.58 ERA, but his 3.76 FIP show he wasn't as bad his his numbers showed. Getting Cease away from the White Sox dreadful defense and in front of a defense like the Astros could go a long way to improving his ERA, even before they make any tweaks to his arsenal.

Let's not forget Gerrit Cole was coming off of a 4.26 ERA with a 4.08 FIP in 2017 before the Astros traded for the future ace...

Cease would be costly. He'd cost both Urquidy and France, as well as Jake Meyers and multiple prospects, but the reward is well worth the risk. The Astros 1-3 would consist of three of the top-five finishers for the 2022 Cy Young.

Like Cole, Cease is represented by Boras Corp and comes with two years of team control. He wouldn't be a candidate for a long-term extension in Houston, but two years of Cease would make the Astros serious title contenders through 2025.

#4 Cristian Javier (2022 version)

Cristian Javier comes with a qualifier--that the Critian Javier of old returns. If 2023 Javier is in the Astros rotation, there is just no way to call it a "dream." But if the Astros get the untouchable Javier back, he legitimately can be a #1.

When Cristian Javier is locating his fastball up with the correct arm angle, he's impossible to touch. But when his arm angle misses, his slider doesn't play nearly as well. While his fastball still had a run value of 12 in 2023 (down from 18 in 2022), his slider run value was -2 after being an 8 in 2022.

His 2023 was a tale of two seasons. In March/April, May and September/October, Javier threw 94.1 innings, posting a 3.34 ERA and striking out 107 batters. He looked like the Javier of 2022.

But from June to August, Javier looked like a AA spot starter. He allowed 47 earned runs in only 67.2 innings of work. He wasn't missing bats and gave up home runs galore.

The postseason was more of the same for Javier. He dominated the Twins in Game 3 of the ALDS and mowed down Texas in Game 3 of the ALCS, but got absolutely rocked in game 7 of the ALCS, recording only one out and giving up four runs.

If Houston can get 2022 Cristian Javier back, or even if his 2.54 ERA doesn't return, just an ERA in the low to mid 3's, they're in incredible shape. And as part of a six-man rotation, it's entirely possible Javier gets the rest he needs and does just that.

#6 Hunter Brown/Lance McCullers Jr.

Right now, the Lance McCullers Jr. contract extension is one of the worst moves of the Astros Golden Era. He's getting $17 million a year to rehab.

Houston needs LMJ to pitch. When he does, he remains a great arm. McCullers is 49-32 in his career with a 3.48 ERA. But after injuring himself in the 2021 postseason, McCullers has made eight regular season starts and three playoff starts over the last two seasons.

He likely won't be ready for the start of the season after surgery ended his 2023 campaign before it started, but if Hunter Brown can hold down the fort until LMJ is back, Houston all of the sudden has a lethal rotation.

Brown can begin the year as a starter, and he'd likely get off to a similar start as he did in 2023. Brown was great as a rookie in the first half, posting every fifth day and recording a 4.12 ERA. As the year went on, fatigue caught up and Brown regressed mightily, posting a 6.57 second half ERA.

Brown needs to keep his workload down to preserve his young and dynamic right arm, and McCullers needs to find a way to stay healthy. Houston could implement a tandem system for the two as they have done with many of their minor league arms working their way up.

Brown would get the vital continued development to begin the season as McCullers rehabs, but once Lance is good to go, both arms would be kept fresh.

A six-man rotation as deep as this would again leave Houston as the class of the American League.