Dream Astros starting lineup for the 2024 season

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The reality of the Houston Astros' offseason is that there are going to be limits on what Dana Brown and the front office can do in terms of roster moves. From limits imposed on them by ownership in terms of how much money they can commit to limits based on good ol' fashioned reason, the Astros aren't just going to go out there this offseason and be able to do whatever they want and throw Monopoly money around.

But what if money was no object and there were no real limits?

The dream 2024 Houston Astros starting lineup

The idea here is simple: to build the 2024 Houston Astros lineup. It is a bit of a lie that there wouldn't be ANY limits as this isn't going to a "trade for whoever we want for whatever we want" sort of thing nor are we going to throw away most of the lineup to make an All-Star team. This will be an Astros lineup that feels like an Astros lineup, but with some help from the free agent market and a whole bunch of money. Here's what that could look like.

Batting first in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Jose Altuve at 2B

It wouldn't be a Houston lineup without Jose Altuve at the top of it. When he is healthy, he is still one of the best second baseman in the game and will go down in history as an all-time great. Other than being banged up this year with a broken thumb and an oblique injury, Altuve hasn't shown signs that he is slowing down as he posted a .915 OPS in the 2023 regular season and was nails once again in the playoffs.

Going into his final year under contract, the bet here is that he will continue to be the guy that posts between a .370-390 OBP and sets the table for the rest of this loaded lineup. He is going to be motivated to perform has a lot of the prototypical and more modern tools one wants at leadoff in addition to his ability to get on base. An easy decision here.

Batting second in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Yordan Alvarez in LF

At first glance, this decision is going to look a little wonky because playing Yordan in the field isn't always the most sound defensive decision, but should make more sense as we go along. Other than dealing with his own injury in 2023, Alvarez was great once again with a .293/.407/.583 slash line and 31 homers in just 114 games. Yordan simply makes this Houston offense go and not keeping just wouldn't feel right.

Dusty Baker preferred to bat Yordan in the third or fourth spot, However, Dusty has retired and the fact is that you generally want your best hitters to get the most plate appearances possible which means batting them higher in the lineup. There is an argument for batting him at leadoff honestly, but giving deference to Altuve who is an excellent choice as well plays a role with this decision.

One additional upside to putting Yordan at the #2 also allows us to alternate handedness in the lineup. Houston's offense (especially with our new "additions" that are coming up shortly) has enough of both lefties and righties to alternate them without sacrificing much. This makes making bullpen decisions against the lineup much more difficult since we won't have have such large groupings of righties as was the case with Dusty's lineups.

Batting third in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Alex Bregman at 3B

While Altuve hasn't shown signs of slowing down just yet, that hasn't exactly been the case with Alex Bregman the last couple of years. His peak in 2018 and 2019 was insane where he was hitting close to .300 and averaging around 35 homers a season, but he is still an .800ish OPS hitter who gets on base at a high clip.

This is the spot that feels like it is in the most flux. If Bregman declines next season, there is certainly a chance that moving him further down the lineup would be the correct choice. However, his ability to get on base, hit for some power, and the fact that he is the next best righty for our "alternate handedness" plan gives him the edge here.

Putting Bregman at the third spot does go against the prevailing wisdom that you want your best hitters hitting higher in the lineup and, in this dream Astros lineup, there are 2-3 hitters that could end up being better. However, the difference shouldn't be huge enough to overcome the strategic value of constructing the lineup so that opposing teams can go hunting for favorable bullpen matchups with a big emphasis on "shouldn't".

Batting fourth in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Shohei Ohtani at DH

Now we are talking. In a vacuum, Shohei Ohtani should be batting higher in basically any lineup. Shohei is a unicorn of a baseball player who would not only provide a huge boost to this Houston lineup that was weirdly inconsistent in 2023, but also should give the Astros' rotation a jolt once he is able to throw off the mound again.

The problem with Ohtani, of course, is his injury clouds his 2024 outlook a good bit. He had another surgical procedure on his elbow that ended his 2023 season. The word currently is that he plans on pitching in 2025 and should be ready to go at the plate from Opening Day 2024. We are willing to play Yordan in left to fit him in the lineup at DH here, but batting him higher than fourth when it isn't known what he will look like at the plate upon his return seems unwise.

Is there any chance that Ohtani could end up in Houston? Never say never, but the chances are close to zero here. Not only are some of the most deep-pocketed teams pursuing him this offseason, but the guy is probably going to get a deal that is going to guarantee him close to half a billion dollars. That isn't the Astros style whatsoever, but it is fun to think about what it would look like if it actually happened.

Batting fifth in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Jose Abreu at 1B

This was a troublesome spot in the lineup for this thought exercise. Ideally, we would have a righty bat to keep the right-left-right-left plan going along, but the internal options the Astros have aren't the best. A glance at the free agent market for places where upgrades could happen isn't ideal, either. Ultimately, Jose Abreu was the choice.

Before folks get upset, no one is arguing that Abreu's first season with Houston wasn't a colossal disappointment. In 141 games for Houston during the 2023 regular season, Abreu slashed just .237/.296/.383 with 18 homers and he dealt with a back injury for the bulk of the season. For the amount of money that Houston committed to him through the 2025 season, they were certainly expecting more out of him.

However, the 2023 season was such an outlier for Abreu vs. the rest of his career that we are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he is closer to being the guy he was with the White Sox than he showed this season. Jose gets a full offseason to get his back completely healthy and he looked like he was back to his former self during the Astros' playoff run. That is good enough to have hope...at least for now.

Batting sixth in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Kyle Tucker in RF

Having Kyle Tucker batting this low in the Astros' lineup is more an indication of how loaded this lineup is than anything else, but it is still pretty wild when you think about it. The guy nearly got a 30/30 season in 2023 with an .886 OPS and 5.4 rWAR, so having him at the sixth spot doesn't look quite right on the surface.

There are some reasons for the decision, though. One, he is very clearly the next best lefty bat option available and batting him any lower than this feels criminal. Second, he isn't typically a high OBP guy which isn't exactly what you want in the top half of the order if one can help it. He is still a tremendously valuable hitter, though, and he should be able to do some damage in the six spot.

One problem with Kyle that is hard to shake is how the 2023 season ended for him. In addition to his truly abysmal performance in the playoffs where he posted just a .517 OPS in 11 games, he didn't play at his best in August or September as well. He was still good, but consider this a hedge against the possibility that either something isn't quite right with him or that the league has figured out how to make him a slightly easier out.

Batting seventh in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Yainer Diaz at C

The #7 and #8 spots in this dream Astros lineup are the weakest to be sure. The good news is that Martin Maldonado isn't going to be getting the lion's share of the playing time at catcher anymore. Amongst internal options, that meant that promising young catcher Yainer Diaz gets the nod.

There was some consideration for going for an external option at catcher could make some sense as Diaz isn't a sure fire stud just yet. However, a brief look at the free agent and trade markets this offseason was pretty depressing in terms of catching options. Mitch Garver is a free agent who can absolutely hit and can play catcher, but isn't a guy you want catching every day. The rest of the available options are older guys and backup catchers who aren't an upgrade here.

This shouldn't be cause for alarm as Diaz posted an .846 OPS in his first full season with Houston with 23 home runs and reasonable, if unexciting, defensive numbers at catcher. It would be great if he could get his 2.9% walk rate up and his performance in the postseason in very limited playing time wasn't good, but he is still a very good number seven hitter here.

Batting eighth in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Jeremy Pena at SS

For the #8 spot in our lineup, we want the worst hitter in our lineup and that comes down to the center field spot or shortstop. Center field has a strong bat that the Astros could pilfer off the free agent market and given that, shortstop gets the nod for the eighth spot in the lineup.

The question then becomes does Houston roll with (in an ideal world) Jeremy Pena who is coming off a mediocre offensive year where he posted a 96 wRC+ and saw the power he showed last year essentially cut in half or with an external option. The problem with going outside the organization is that this year's free agent shortstop class is pretty bad. Tim Anderson is a free agent and is still a strong defender, but he is coming off the worst season of his career at the plate with a 60 wRC+ and has a bit of a reputation as a headache in the clubhouse.

In the end, Jeremy Pena gets the nod for a couple reasons. While putting Pena at the eight spot does break up the alternating handedness plan, he does have offensive upside that he showed in the big leagues in 2022 while being a strong defensive player. In short, he is the best option available without going full fantasy baseball and making up trades for guys that are definitely not going to be actually available.

Batting ninth in the dream 2024 Astros lineup, Cody Bellinger in CF

Finally, batting ninth for the dream 2024 Houston Astros is Cody Bellinger. It is pretty well documented that the Astros would like an outfield upgrade and while Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon did an admirable job in 2023, Bellinger is just the superior choice.

After really struggling from 2020-2022, Bellinger had a huge comeback season in 2023 with the Cubs. He slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers this season to make the one year deal he inked with Chicago an absolute bargain. His play this year took him from potentially being out of the league soon to being in line for a nine figure payday this offseason.

In a traditional lineup, batting Bellinger ninth wouldn't make sense. However, this arrangement gives the Astros a strong lefty hitting ahead of the top of the lineup in most innings, lengthens the lineup considerably, and protects against the possibility that Bellinger turns back into a pumpkin again at the plate. Having a former NL MVP batting ninth for your squad is certainly a luxury, but that is what offseason dreaming is for.

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