Caleb Ferguson nightmare in Texas makes questionable deadline risk look even worse

The Houston Astros' trade deadline strategy was already pretty questionable. While results from the Yusei Kikuchi trade looked good after his first start, it was just one start, and most still agree that the Astros probably (definitely) overpaid to acquire the rental Kikuchi. Beyond bolstering their rotation, Houston also made the curious decision to acquire reliever Caleb Ferguson at the deadline as well.

One can understand the Astros' desire to take a little bit of a risk with Ferguson. Before his decidedly unfortunate tenure with the Yankees, Ferguson put up a 2.85 ERA from 2020 to 2023 with the Dodgers (although he did miss the 2021 season after having his second Tommy John surgery). Given that Ferguson only cost Houston a relief prospect and $750,000 in international bonus money (which is admittedly a decent chunk of IFA pool), buying low on him made some sense in a vacuum.

However, the problem comes when Ferguson was the only acquisition the Astros made for their bullpen. After Ferguson imploded against the Rangers on Monday -- his second consecutive bad outing following a string of them in New York -- that strategy should come under some scrutiny.

Astros' deadline moves even more questionable after Caleb Ferguson's meltdown against Texas

Look, there is no confusion here that small sample sizes can yield wonky results. Sometimes, a guy just has an off night. In the case of Ferguson, he was pressed into service in a high leverage situation in extra innings that he probably shouldn't have been used in in the first place. The Astros' offense also should take a chunk of the blame, as they had the bases loaded with one out and they only managed to push across one run in the 10th, in addition to multiple spoiled scoring chances earlier in the game.

However, Ferguson's struggles in 2024 haven't been a small sample. In his first appearance with the Astros, he gave up two runs as well. Going back to his stint with the Yankees, he had a 5.13 ERA in 42 appearances, and all of his pitches other than his cutter have gotten beaten up this year. This isn't a guy going through a small rough patch. Ferguson hasn't been good all year long.

Making matters worse, Ferguson's implosion came against Texas in a series that should have been Houston's chance to close the door on any chance that the Rangers could catch them in the division. Instead, the Astros have stumbled in August after a hot June and July, and Texas now still has hope, despite not playing well lately.

It is easy to grade moves with the benefit of hindsight, and some of that is certainly happening here. However, a struggling reliever with two Tommy Johns on his arm probably shouldn't have been the Astros' only move to bolster their bullpen, even if you ignore how bad the start to Ferguson's tenure with Houston as been.

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