Astros vs. Twins prediction and odds for ALDS Game 4

A full betting preview for the Houston Astros who lead the Minnesota Twins 2-1 in the best of five ALDS.
Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44)
Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) / Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

After yesterday, the Minnesota Twins have their backs against the ropes in the ALDS. The Houston Astros beat them 9-1 behind a five-inning one-hit gem from Cristian Javier and are one win away from making their seventh consecutive ALCS appearance. Minnesota is just hoping to force a Game 5.

With their season on the line, the Twins will turn to Joe Ryan. Ryan has yet to pitch in the postseason but went 11-10 in the regular season with a 4.51 ERA in 29 starts. Ryan will be opposed by Jose Urquidy who also hasn’t taken the mound in the postseason yet. Urquidy finished the year 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA in 16 games, 10 of those were starts.

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Now, let’s get into the odds for this postseason matchup.

Astros vs. Twins odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Twins prediction and pick

Houston will likely be leaning on its bullpen in this matchup with Urquidy starting. He only made 10 starts all season and pitched just 63.0 innings in 16 games. As a starter, he posted a 5.01 ERA with 34 strikeouts to 19 walks but did allow seven home runs. He hasn’t pitched since September 29. 

The Houston bullpen may not be too reliable, though it did cover four innings and give up just one run last night. On the season, it ranked 17th in the MLB in FIP at 4.15. Javier threw a gem yesterday, but I expect the Twins lineup to have a bounce-back tonight. 

Carlos Correa had another hit and scored a run last night throughout the postseason, he has a 1.156 OPS and has driven in four runs. Correa and Royce Lewis have been a force, just not as much as Yordan Alvarez.

Last night, Alvarez had three hits, scored twice, and drove in one run, himself on a solo homer. Alvarez leads all hitters in the postseason with a staggering 2.205 OPS and .500 average. Joe Ryan’s fastball is his best pitch, but his most used offspeed pitch against lefties is his split-finger. Ryan’s offspeed pitches have a run value of -4 which is in the 13th percentile of all pitchers and Alvarez slugged .621 against offspeed pitches this year. 

Alvarez will continue to rake, but with my questions about the Houston bullpen, I’ll take the over in Game 4. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change