Astros vs. Rangers prediction and odds for Friday, June 30 (Target total)

The top two teams in the AL West meet in Arlington on Friday night to start a weekend series, our expert breakdown:
Jun 28, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) hits an RBI single
Jun 28, 2023; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) hits an RBI single / Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports
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The Houston Astros enter a three game set against the Texas Rangers five games off the AL West lead, but the team can chip into the lead with a strong performance over the weekend.

Houston will need a strong start from Ronel Blanco to support the emerging offense against one of the most potent lineups in baseball this season in the Rangers. Texas will start Jon Gray, who has been fantastic this season, but may be due for a setback due to his underlying metrics.

Here are the odds for the series opener on Friday:

Astros vs. Rangers odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Rangers prediction and pick

These are two top 10 offenses in baseball this month in terms of OPS and I'm expecting we see a ton of runs on Friday night.

Houston's starter Blanco has been underwhelming in four big league starts this season as the Astros try to piece together the back of the rotation. Overall, he has a 4.63 ERA on the year with an xERA of 5.16. He is walking nearly five batters per nine innings across 35 innings and will struggle with a Rangers team that is best in the big leagues at .274.

However, the edge here is based around the lingering regression for Gray, who is pitching far worse than his 2.89 ERA, indicated by his xERA of 4.19.

The Astros are coming on strong of late, top 10 in runs scored across 26 June games and hitting .257. Houston has scored five or more runs in seven of 10 games and I expect another massive offensive showing on Friday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.