This feels like the weekend when all of the divisional rivals across the MLB finally meet for the first time. We’re seeing it in the AL East, the NL West, and of course, the AL West as the Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros. We saw these two meet in the postseason a year ago and the Mariners didn’t take a game, so they’ll be hoping for some revenge in this three-game weekend series.
The Astros come in at 16-15 which slots them third in the AL West, still a game ahead of the Mariners who are 15-16. Both teams need to start making up ground and Houston will look to do it with Cristian Javier on the mound while the Mariners turn to Luis Castillo. Javier comes in with a 3.48 ERA and a record of 2-1 while Castillo is 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA.
Here are the odds for the Mariners and Astros in Seattle.
Astros vs. Mariners odds, run line and total
Astros vs. Mariners prediction and pick
The Astros have lost their last two series heading into this matchup, one of which was another postseason rematch in which the Phillies got some measure of revenge. The Mariners on the other hand are coming in the winners of their last four games, though three of those were against the Oakland A’s and you’d be hard pressed to find a team in any sport as good at losing as the A’s are. Seattle may have some level of momentum, but everybody says that momentum is only as good as your next day’s starting pitcher. In that case the Mariners have a lot of momentum.
You won’t find a next day’s starting pitcher much better than Luis Castillo who has made six starts and only allowed seven earned runs with 38 strikeouts to eight walks. He’s been great and he’s catching the Astros at a very good time. Over the past 15 days, so not an insignificant sample size, the Astros are 28th in OPS and runs scored, and 26th in home runs with just nine in 12 games over that stretch.
Alex Bregman has not woken up from his early season slump, Jose Abreu is looking like a disastrous signing, and Kyle Tucker has a .221 OPS over the past week. Jeremy Pena’s OPS is right around .700 over this most recent week and he’s looking like a bright spot in this lineup.
The good news is that Javier has been strong this season and the Astros have the Mariners number, so I won’t pick Seattle straight up, instead I’m going to take the under.
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