Astros vs. Brewers prediction and odds for Monday, May 22 (Bregman, Houston heating up)

Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2)
Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros swept the A’s over the weekend and have won seven straight, but are still two games back of first place in the AL West at 27-19.

To overtake the Rangers for the top spot The Astros need to take care of business against another division leader, the 25-21 Milwaukee Brewers, who are tops in the NL Central. Milwaukee was able to salvage the final game from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but have lost three of their last four. 

For the first of this three-gamer in Milwaukee the Astros will go with Cristian Javier on the mound against Corbin Burnes. Javier is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA and Burnes is 4-3 with a 3.48. 

Even on the road the Astros are favorites to extend the longest active win streak in baseball tonight against the Brewers. 

Astros vs. Brewers odds, run line and total

Astros vs. Brewers prediction and pick

It was not a good start to the year for Corbin Burnes, but he has made four straight quality starts and has his ERA down to 3.48. He is still not dominating the way he has in years past. Burnes’ strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, 21.6%, and his walk rate is the second highest it’s been in his six years. His cutter has pretty similar numbers to last season, but his changeup and slider, his third and fourth pitches don’t have the same bite. His changeup had a 46.7% whiff rate last year and is at 33.3% this year and his slider is down to 40.5% from 49.7%. 

Burnes has only gone deeper than the sixth inning in one start this year which is bad news because the entire Milwaukee pitching staff has an ERA of 5.12 in May, which is 27th in baseball. 

The Astros offense has been rough this season, but in the past seven days, its third in the MLB in OPS and Alex Bregman has a 1.021 OPS over that stretch.

Despite Milwaukee’s winning record, the team has a -2 run differential and aren’t exactly looking like a real contender. I like the Astros win streak to continue and feel good about fading Corbin Burnes until his strikeout rate goes back up. 

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