Astros Prospect Watch: Jacob Melton raking at Double-A, first-round pick struggling

Given their lower draft position (and subsequent lower international bonus pool) in addition to the penalties levied by MLB in the wake of the sign stealing scandal, many have declared that the Houston Astros' farm system is at a low point. To be fair, there is a lot of merit to that as MLB Pipeline ranked the Astros' prospects group 27th in all of baseball before the start the season.

There is just no denying that Houston's farm system isn't nearly as deep as it once was and any semblance of depth was pretty gutted by the trade for Justin Verlander at the 2023 deadline. However, there are potential impact players down on the farm and the idea that the Astros are completely devoid of young talent just isn't true.

Just in the last year or so, Yainer Diaz and Joey Loperfido have come up and made a real impact for Houston, and Spencer Arrighetti seems to be finding his way (albeit slowly) on the mound after being pressed into service.

Here is a look at some of the Astros prospects of note that are still in the minor leagues and how they are doing lately.

Astros Prospect Watch: Jacob Melton is raking at Double-A

Jacob Melton was the Astros' second-round pick in the 2022 draft and he quickly established himself as one of the best bats in Houston's system thanks to a well-rounded game and exciting batted ball peripherals. So far in 2024, Melton has an .817 OPS down at Double-A, which is fine, but the news is a lot better if you look at how he has played lately.

Over Melton's last 10 games, he's slashing .289/.349/.605 with five extra-base hits, including three homers. Melton's hit tool has been his biggest question mark, but if can hit around .280 while also showcasing his impressive power and speed, he could force the Astros' hand very soon.

Astros Prospect Watch: Brice Matthews struggling early in 2024

The Astros love to draft bats with big upside, especially those from the college ranks, so picking Brice Matthews in the first round last year out of the University of Nebraska made loads of sense. When he is going good, he makes loud contact and has real power, particularly to his pull side. Matthews' football background is a plus in his column as he showcases his athleticism regularly and can really run well.

Unfortunately, scouts' concerns that his tendency to swing and miss have proven to be a struggle for him as a pro so far. After striking out around a third of the time in his pro debut in 2023, he was striking out at a similar clip to start 2024 as well. Making matters worse, Matthews hasn't played since the end of April as he has been on the IL with a back injury. He is certainly better than his .650 OPS so far this season, but losing valuable development time due to injury could be a pretty big step backward for him.

Astros Prospect Watch: Luis Baez putting up loud numbers in High-A

While most people are well aware of Jacob Melton by now, the Astros No. 2 overall prospect, Luis Baez, often gets lost in the shuffle. That is largely because Baez is an international signee and is still a long ways away from the big leagues. However, those sleeping on him could be in for a rude awakening as Baez is making a lot of noise in the low minors right now.

The 20-year-old sports a .295/.342/.482 line in 2024 at High-A, and over his last 10 games he has been a monster with a 1.024 OPS, including three homers and 12 RBI. The slugging outfielder probably isn't going to be in the picture for a big league call up until at least sometime in 2025, but don't be shocked if he forces his way to Double-A very, very soon.

Astros Prospect Watch: Jake Bloss keeps blowing hitters away

The biggest lack of depth that the Astros have in their farm system is undoubtedly at pitcher, which has been very problematic for the big league club in 2024 given all of their injuries. Arrighetti is still figuring things out in the majors and top arms like AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, and Rhett Kouba have struggled with consistency this season. However, one Astros arm that is making a lot of noise is right-hander Jake Bloss.

Houston's third-round pick last year put together an impressive pro debut with a 2.89 ERA in his first 18 2/3 innings pitched after being drafted. However, he has somehow been even better in 2024 despite being challenged with an early-season promotion to Double-A.

In his first six starts this season, Bloss' well-rounded pitch mix has yielded a 1.23 ERA with 35 strikeouts against just eight walks in 29 1/3 innings of work. 2025 still seems like the best bet for when Astros fans could see him in the big leagues, but a late-season call-up this year doesn't feel out of the question if he keeps this up and the team finds themselves in contention in need of another arm.

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