Astros may need to make unpopular decision with Justin Verlander as struggles mount

At this point, Houston Astros fans are well aware of the situation the team finds themselves in with Justin Verlander. He has been, without question, one of the best pitchers of his generation and is making a boatload of money this year. However, that doesn't change the fact that he is 41 years old, just missed a bunch of time with a neck injury, and has really struggled since coming off the IL.

This isn't just an abstract "Verlander doesn't look like himself" sort of thing. The numbers are genuinely bad. In the three starts he has made since coming off the IL, he has a 6.75 ERA and has 12 strikeouts (six coming in one game) and six walks in 14.2 innings of work. As good as Verlander has been in his Hall of Fame career, how can the Astros realistically trust him in the biggest of spots anymore?

That question is about to be forced, as Houston will soon have to figure out who to carry on their postseason roster. As of now, there is an argument that Verlander should be the odd man out.

Astros may be forced to leave Justin Verlander off playoff roster...at least at first

The calculus here is simple: there are just more, better options than Verlander for the Astros' playoff rotation than there are available spots. Framber Valdez is a mortal lock. Yusei Kikuchi has been pitching his brains out, and wouldn't have been traded for if he wasn't going to make the cut, pending his production dropping off a cliff. For the remaining two-ish spots (more on that in a minute), Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Verlander. See the problem?

Now, the Astros seem like they are going to move Blanco to the bullpen here soon. While that move is highly questionable, that does at least trim the options down a bit when it comes to playoff starters. However, Hunter Brown has been a massive success story for the Astros in 2024, and possesses some of the best pure stuff on Houston's pitching staff. Spencer Arrighetti also has nasty stuff, and has a 2.77 ERA with 71 strikeouts against just 18 walks in his last nine starts.

The Houston Chronicle's Michael Shapiro makes the argument in his piece linked above that Verlander's playoff experience should be weighted heavily, and that is fair. We have seen rookies get shaken by the bright lights of the postseason before. However, we have also seen teams rely too heavily on veteran experience and get burned for it, as good teams punish diminished stuff while better arms sit on the outside looking in.

There is a bit of a middle ground here that the Astros could explore. In the Wild Card round, carrying Verlander is less defensible, as he just isn't among the Astros' best options for a shorter series. However, once seven-game series start becoming a thing, carrying him for those rounds of the playoffs makes more sense as a guy who you bring in if one of the other starters has the wheels fall off. That role PROBABLY should just be filled by Blanco, but using Verlander in those spots is at least justifiable.

If we are being honest with ourselves, the Astros' allegiance and respect for Verlander is probably going to win out, and he is going to be carried on their playoff roster throughout. However, that does not mean it is going to be the right decision, especially if current trends hold.

More Astros News from Climbing Tal's Hill