Alex Bregman’s ambitions with 2024 Astros could officially price him out of Houston

It seems like each spring, every Houston Astros player (and really every player around the league) talks about how they are in the best shape of their lives and are primed to have a big season. You won't find too many guys in their first interviews of spring training saying ,"Yeah, I put on a few pounds over the holidays and can't time fastballs right now, but it will work itself out."

Still, it was heartening to hear that Alex Bregman, facing what could be his final season with the Astros, talk about how great his offseason has gone. Apparently, Bregman trained this offseason in Phoenix with players like Xander Bogaerts and Matt Chapman, and yes, he confirmed he's in the best shape of his life.

However, Bregman actually was even bolder than that. When he was asked about his offseason work and his expectations for the 2024 season, Bregman's expecting "the best season I've ever had."

A strong contract year from Alex Bregman may be the best the Astros can hope for now

For Bregman to be correct, he's going to have to put up an incredibly strong season at the plate and defy trends that have his production heading in the wrong direction. By the numbers, Bregman's best season came in 2019 when he put up 8.2 fWAR and a 167 wRC+ with 41 homers and his usual sound defense. Given that he hasn't hit more than 25 home runs in a season since then or posted a wRC+ higher than 136 for that matter, Bregman might be a tad too optimistic about 2024.

That said, Bregman doesn't have to have a career year in 2024 to be valuable to the Astros. Even if he starts trending upward again at the plate would greatly help. However, a strong campaign from Bregman also probably only increases the likelihood that 2024 is his final season in Houston.

There are already rumors that Bregman wants big, big money for his next contract. Based on what we know about free agent prices and who is going to be available in free agency next offseason, using Xander Bogaerts' deal with the Padres as a starting point for Bregman's next deal is not at all farfetched.

If Bregman does indeed go off in 2024 as he's expecting to, he isn't going to get any cheaper, and that makes a reunion with the Astros even less likely than it already is.

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