5 reasons the Astros defied the odds and won the AL West

The Astros won their sixth-straight AL West division title yesterday, defeating the Diamondbacks 8-1 while the Mariners defeated Texas 1-0. The Astros and Rangers finished the year with identical 90-72 records, but by way of a head-to-head record tiebreaker, the Astros took the division.

There were plenty of ups and downs throughout the year, and plenty of people wrote them off, but when the lights shone brightest, the Astros once again got it done. A lot has to go your way to win one division title, much less six straight. Like any division champ, the Astros had plenty go their way.

Let's look at the five reasons the Astros won the AL West.

#5: The emergence of Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz

We've written about Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz at length on this site. McCormick, named one of MLB's top breakout players by The Athletic, finished the season with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, a .273 average, an .843 OPS, and a 3.8 fWAR.

Yainer Diaz hit .282 with 23 home runs, 60 RBI, an .846 OPS and 3.2 bWAR. Had Yainer gotten more playing time, he'd have made a very serious push for AL Rookie of the Year.

McCormick helped the offense stay afloat as the Astros battled injury, and when he got his chances behind the plate, Yainer Diaz more than made up for the offensive and defensive regression of Martín Maldonado.

Dusty Baker didn't play either nearly as much as he should have, but the Astros wouldn't have been able to overcome the missed time of Altuve and Alvarez, the repeated rehab pauses of Michael Brantley, and the offensive woes of José Abreu and Maldy had it not been for Chas and Yainer.

#4: Dominating the Rangers head-to-head

The Astros and Rangers finished with an identical 90-72 record. In years previous, they'd have played Game 163 for the tiebreaker. Now, the tiebreaker is awarded to the winner of the head-to-head season series.

The Astros dominated the Rangers this season, winning nine of the 13 games between the two teams. Texas took the first three-game series between the two in April, but the Astros won seven of the final nine.

The final nail in Texas' coffin came in the September 4-6 series. Houston swept the Rangers, outscoring them 39-10.

Had the season series been even one game closer, Texas takes the division. But the Astros handled business against their little brother, ensuring they controlled their own destiny.

#3: Mauricio Dubón

Where would the Astros be without Mauricio Dubón? Aside from watching the playoffs from home, who knows? Thank you James Click for yet another shrewd move. 

We were down on Dubie coming into the season, and he spent all year proving all of his doubters wrong. 

Any time a team loses a player the caliber of Jose Altuve for two months, it’s a crushing blow. Very, very few players in the game could have done what Dubón did over the first two months, while Houston missed Altuve. As the everyday second basemen, he hit .302 in April and .274 in May. 

Not All-Star level production, but huge in helping alleviate the loss of Altuve. 

While his offense was great, his defense was special. In 79 games at second base, Dubón finished with five DRS. 

We still have some questions about the concept of a “personal center fielder,” but Dubie was great down the stretch, and no one play improved the Astros championship win probability more than Dubie’s three-run blast off Bryce Miller in a must win over Seattle. 

He finishes the 2023 regular season with a .278 average, 10 home runs, a .720 OPS, and 2.7 bWAR. Houston simply isn’t in this position without Mauricio Dubón. 

Reason #2: The Leverage Arms

Hector Neris and Bryan Abreu, take a bow. Anytime Houston had a lead this year, those two made sure it was game over.

Neris finishes the season with a 2.5 bWAR, 1.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. Anytime Dusty summoned Neris out of the bullpen, whether it was a clean inning or a bases-loaded jam he was inheriting, it felt like Neris was guaranteed to get out of the jam without surrendering any damage.

His exuberance motivates the team, and when he struck out Julio Rodriguez and talked trash in the penultimate series of the year, it felt like that finally woke the team up. What a walk year for Neris.

Bryan Abreu can be summed up in one word: untouchable. He wraps up his 2023 with a 2.5 bWAR as well, a 1.75 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 12.5 K/9. Abreu hasn't allowed a run since July 15th, an almost unfathomable stretch of 27 straight scoreless appearances.

He finished the second half with a 0.31 ERA. Abreu should be a prime extension candidate this offseason.

Those two especially were dynamite, and Ryan Pressly was again a great closer and Kendall Graveman was fantastic as an Astro. Their bullpen as a whole wasn't as dominant as last season, but the leverage arms are a massive part of why the Astros are division champs.