5 factors that will decide the ALCS between the Astros and Rangers

For a seventh consecutive season, the Astros will partake in the American League Championship Series. The Astros playing for a pennant is as much October tradition as trick-or-treating and pumpkin pie. 

While Houston has been an ALCS staple in recent history, their opponents haven’t been. The Texas Rangers will be playing for a pennant for the first time since 2012.
This will be the first time the division rivals have ever squared off in a playoff series. However, there’s no shortage of bad blood between the teams. 

Houston dominated the head-to-head matchups in the regular season, winning the season series 9-4, but the Rangers have been on another level this postseason, going 5-0 while outscoring the opposition 32-12. 

It should be a tightly contested series for the right to represent the AL in the World Series, and for in-state bragging rights.

Here are the five biggest factors that will determine the ALCS.

#5: Defense

As we’ve mentioned before, elite defense has been a staple for the Astros during their playoff run. This year, not so much. The Astros 14 defensive runs saved this year were good for 17th in the MLB. 

This is a far cry from their standard. No other year have they finished lower than 4th since 2018. Now, much of their regression can be attributed to the regular season DRS regression of Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Peña, but Tucker was much better in the second half and Peña has been a defensive stalwart in the postseason. 

The Rangers defense is better on paper, finishing seventh in the league in DRS. 

In a battle between such evenly matched teams, a costly error or a highlight reel defensive play could be all the difference in who goes home and who advances. 

#4: The resurgence of José Abreu

If the José Abreu of the regular season shows up, it may be tough for the Astros to keep up with a Rangers offense that is clicking on all cylinders. If the Abreu of the ALDS shows up, none of the remaining three teams can hang with Houston. Simple as that. 

If José Abreu is doing damage, as evidenced by his three ALDS shots, all of which traveled 420 feet or farther, teams have no choice but to pitch to Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. 

But if the Abreu that was one of the worst qualified hitters in the MLB during the regular season shows up, there is a way for opposing managers to navigate the pocket of Alvarez and Tucker. 

Assuming Abreu keeps his production up, even if he doesn’t sustain a three home run/eight RBI piece, Alvarez in particular has the protection he needs to do damage. 

If the Astros offense is firing on all cylinders, watch out. Opposing managers have no choice but to hang on for dear life. 

#3: Bochy vs. Baker

Both teams are led by Hall of Fame managers that not all that long ago were out of baseball. Bruce Bochy won three titles with the Giants, but was out of the game from 2020-2022. Dusty Baker returned in 2020 to stabilize the Astros after a two-year hiatus from managing. 

Baker has a far better regular season resume, (Bochy is somehow under .500 for his career) but Bochy is a master at managing bullpens in the postseason. 

He’s already displayed his prowess somehow getting through the first two rounds with no damage done to one of the worst bullpens in the game. 

We’ve questioned Baker quite a bit this year, and while much of his regular season decision making can be pointed to as the reason the Astros didn’t clinch the West until the final day, he’s been phenomenal so far in the postseason. 

In an evenly matched series on the field and in the dugouts, it’ll likely come down to who pushes what buttons and when. 

#2: What version of Framber Valdez shows up?

Framber Valdez was a leading candidate for the AL Cy Young at the halfway point of the season. In his 17 first-half starts, Valdez posted a 2.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Since then, he’s been incredibly erratic, largely pitching to the caliber of his opposition and pressure of the moment. In 14 second-half starts, Valdez posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. 

He no-hit the Cleveland Guardians, threw seven no-hit innings against the Detroit Tigers, and completed seven innings of one run ball against the Royals in that stretch. He also gave up six runs in a must win game against the Royals, six more against Baltimore, Texas and Seattle.

His only good start against a playoff team in the second-half came against the Rangers, when he completed seven innings of one-run ball, but even that came in a game the Astros won 14-1 and he could pitch entirely pressure free. 

In Valdez' 2023 playoff debut, he followed up a dominant 2022 postseason by laying an egg. He made it through only 4.1 innings, allowing seven hits, three walks and five runs, and was dominated by Pablo Lopez and the Minnesota Twins in the only game the Astros dropped in the ALDS.

Houston will be lined up to throw JV in Game 1 and Framber in Game 2, meaning they’d have both available to throw twice in the series. If Framber is going to start two of a maximum seven games, which Valdez shows up?

Is it the Framber that dominated the AL in the regular season and postseason last year? Or is it the Framber that loses his sinker up and gets blasted across the yard?

If the Astros get two starts from Valdez in which he pitches like the big-game performer he can be, they’ll be playing for a third World Series in five years. If Valdez shrinks in the moment, Houston will be playing from well behind the eight-ball.