5 factors that will decide the ALCS between the Astros and Rangers

For a seventh consecutive season, the Astros will partake in the American League Championship Series. The Astros playing for a pennant is as much October tradition as trick-or-treating and pumpkin pie. 

While Houston has been an ALCS staple in recent history, their opponents haven’t been. The Texas Rangers will be playing for a pennant for the first time since 2012.
This will be the first time the division rivals have ever squared off in a playoff series. However, there’s no shortage of bad blood between the teams. 

Houston dominated the head-to-head matchups in the regular season, winning the season series 9-4, but the Rangers have been on another level this postseason, going 5-0 while outscoring the opposition 32-12. 

It should be a tightly contested series for the right to represent the AL in the World Series, and for in-state bragging rights.

Here are the five biggest factors that will determine the ALCS.

#5: Defense

As we’ve mentioned before, elite defense has been a staple for the Astros during their playoff run. This year, not so much. The Astros 14 defensive runs saved this year were good for 17th in the MLB. 

This is a far cry from their standard. No other year have they finished lower than 4th since 2018. Now, much of their regression can be attributed to the regular season DRS regression of Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Peña, but Tucker was much better in the second half and Peña has been a defensive stalwart in the postseason. 

The Rangers defense is better on paper, finishing seventh in the league in DRS. 

In a battle between such evenly matched teams, a costly error or a highlight reel defensive play could be all the difference in who goes home and who advances. 

#4: The resurgence of José Abreu

If the José Abreu of the regular season shows up, it may be tough for the Astros to keep up with a Rangers offense that is clicking on all cylinders. If the Abreu of the ALDS shows up, none of the remaining three teams can hang with Houston. Simple as that. 

If José Abreu is doing damage, as evidenced by his three ALDS shots, all of which traveled 420 feet or farther, teams have no choice but to pitch to Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. 

But if the Abreu that was one of the worst qualified hitters in the MLB during the regular season shows up, there is a way for opposing managers to navigate the pocket of Alvarez and Tucker. 

Assuming Abreu keeps his production up, even if he doesn’t sustain a three home run/eight RBI piece, Alvarez in particular has the protection he needs to do damage. 

If the Astros offense is firing on all cylinders, watch out. Opposing managers have no choice but to hang on for dear life. 

#2: What version of Framber Valdez shows up?

Framber Valdez was a leading candidate for the AL Cy Young at the halfway point of the season. In his 17 first-half starts, Valdez posted a 2.51 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Since then, he’s been incredibly erratic, largely pitching to the caliber of his opposition and pressure of the moment. In 14 second-half starts, Valdez posted a 4.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. 

He no-hit the Cleveland Guardians, threw seven no-hit innings against the Detroit Tigers, and completed seven innings of one run ball against the Royals in that stretch. He also gave up six runs in a must win game against the Royals, six more against Baltimore, Texas and Seattle.

His only good start against a playoff team in the second-half came against the Rangers, when he completed seven innings of one-run ball, but even that came in a game the Astros won 14-1 and he could pitch entirely pressure free. 

In Valdez' 2023 playoff debut, he followed up a dominant 2022 postseason by laying an egg. He made it through only 4.1 innings, allowing seven hits, three walks and five runs, and was dominated by Pablo Lopez and the Minnesota Twins in the only game the Astros dropped in the ALDS.

Houston will be lined up to throw JV in Game 1 and Framber in Game 2, meaning they’d have both available to throw twice in the series. If Framber is going to start two of a maximum seven games, which Valdez shows up?

Is it the Framber that dominated the AL in the regular season and postseason last year? Or is it the Framber that loses his sinker up and gets blasted across the yard?

If the Astros get two starts from Valdez in which he pitches like the big-game performer he can be, they’ll be playing for a third World Series in five years. If Valdez shrinks in the moment, Houston will be playing from well behind the eight-ball. 

#1: The Astros' bullpen is a clear advantage, at least on paper

For two teams that match up on paper pretty evenly across the board, this is about the only place where they are uneven. 

The Astros, as usual, have one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Rangers, to put it plainly, have one of the worst. 

Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly are about as good as it gets at the back end of the bullpen. Abreu hasn’t allowed an earned run in three months and Pressly is 13-13 in postseason saves. 

Neris was a little shaky in Game 1, but was lights out in the 2022 playoffs and had the best year of his career. 

The Rangers bullpen is filled with question marks beyond Jose Leclerc. So far in the playoffs they’ve limited the damage, but can Bochy really trust Josh Sborz and Aroldis Chapman to suppress the high-powered Astros. 

We’ve seen the Astros come back on the Rangers bullpen already this year. If Houston jumps out to an early lead, it feels like game over. If Texas gets an early lead, it feels like they’re trying to land a place upside down. 

The Astros relief edge is the biggest factor that will determine the ALCS. If Houston’s relievers perform as expected, Texas goes home without a whimper. 

If one of the Astros vaunted leverage arm falters, or if Bochy gets creative enough with starters out of the pen (is that Max Scherzer’s music), this one could go all seven games.