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5 bold predictions for the Houston Astros for the 2024 season
It is time to go out on a limb and place our bets as to how 2024 will treat the Astros.
While this offseason has been very frustrating on a number of levels for fans, the Houston Astros have a lot going for them in 2024. The offense is largely intact from last year's group and the rotation has Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander leading the way. Even if Houston mostly stands pat going into spring training, this is still a quality baseball team.
Predicting that the Astros will be pretty good isn't exactly going out on a limb, however. Now that most of the offseason is in the rearview mirror and it is all but assured that the Astros won't be doing all that much beyond maybe adding a bullpen arm (or two if you are feeling optimistic), it is time to get bold and predict what fans can expect from them for the 2024 season.
Here are 5 bold predictions for the Astros this coming season
The goal here is to go out on a limb with these predictions, so don't take anything here as gospel. There is a real chance that all of these prognostications won't come to pass and that is okay. This is the time of year to entertain the extreme probabilities before things like "actual games" and "data" get in the way of fans' dreams and nightmares. If these predictions end up looking rather silly by the end of the season, so be it. Fortune favors the brave.
Enough beating around the bush. Let's take a look at some bold predictions for the Astros in 2024.
Yordan Alvarez will hit at least 45 home runs this season
It is hardly a secret that Yordan Alvarez is one of the most feared power hitters in all of baseball. Since 2019, Alvarez places in the top three in all of baseball in ISO as well as slugging percentage behind just Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. The guy just mashes baseballs.
Again, no surprises here and barring another injury derailing his season, he is extraordinarily likely to post yet another 150+ wRC+ season at the plate. However, there are a lot of reasons to expect that Yordan has an even higher ceiling than that going into next season.
While Alvarez has yet to hit 40 home runs in a season (his career high is 37 in 2022), his home run rate from last year would have easily put him over 40 dingers had he played a full season. Assuming a world where he stays healthy, he isn't having to share any time at DH, and there are less Dusty Baker-style lineups, it isn't a stretch that Alvarez can do even better than that. We'll go the extra step and predict at least 45 homers for him in 2024 and a top 5 AL MVP finish for his efforts.
Kyle Tucker will get his 30/30 season in 2024
Given Kyle Tucker's production over the last several years, it is pretty clear why general manager Dana Brown is so interested in keeping Kyle Tucker around for the long haul. Over the last five seasons, Tucker has posted a 121 wRC+ or better each season thanks to having a nice mix of hitting for average as well as being a consistent 30 home run threat and running the bases extremely well.
What is wild is that Tucker seems to better and better every season. His fWAR totals from the last three seasons are 4.7, 4.8, and 4.9 respectively. The gains haven't been crazy per se, but they certainly exist on paper and he has a lot of money on the line to continue to prove that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.
Given that he was just an official scorer's ruling away from getting his first 30/30 season last year, predicting Tucker to get a 30/30 season may not seem all that bold. However, Tucker has never hit more than 30 homers on the dot in a season and Houston has only two 30/30 seasons in franchise history with Jeff Bagwell pulling the trick off in 1997 and 1999.
As difficult as it will be, we are betting that Tucker gets there in 2024. With the running game opening up across the league thanks to the new rules and Tucker's consistent in-game power, expect a career season out of him in 2024 and negotiations on a contract extension to continue to get more and more difficult as a result.
The bullpen will take a huge step back next season
Now to the bad news. While the Astros had some quality arms in the the back of their bullpen in 2023, the group was middling as a whole. Houston's bullpen ranked just 18th by fWAR in baseball last season and 17th in FIP despite having the sixth best bullpen ERA in MLB.
The Astros' relief corps does return key contributors Ryan Pressley and Bryan Abreu in 2024 which is great. However, they lost one of their best relievers in Hector Neris when he opted for free agency along with Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek. Altogether, that means Houston has to find a way to cover for the loss of guys that accounted for 185 bullpen innings last year.
Complicating matters is that the Astros' payroll situation means that quality replacements for those guys may not be coming. Houston was connected to free agent Jordan Hicks before the Giants scooped him up and Robert Stephenson makes logical sense as another option, but there hasn't been any indication that the Astros are willing to pull the trigger on a deal for a reliever that costs real money especially with Rafael Montero's ill-advised deal still fresh on their minds.
Even if the Astros add a bullpen arm, expect some regression for the group in 2024. Despite having the guys they had in the 'pen last year, Houston's relievers were lucky to significantly outperform their FIP in 2023 and now with some of their more reliable relievers now set to sign elsewhere, it looks like Houston's luck has finally run out.
Justin Verlander will make less than 25 starts in 2024
For the last few years, betting against Justin Verlander in his fight against Father Time has been a fool's errand. While he did miss the 2021 season after having Tommy John surgery, Verlander has made a habit of defying the odds and remaining one of the best pitchers in baseball well into his late 30's.
Clearly the Astros still believe that Verlander has more left in the tank as they sent a sizable prospect package to the Mets to bring him back to Houston at the trade deadline last season. Verlander rewarded the Astros' faith in him with a 3.31 ERA in 11 starts after the trade. Not exactly the otherworldly numbers he posted in recent years, but certainly good enough.
The problem here is that Verlander has shown signs of falling off in recent years. His strikeout rate took a massive hit after his elbow surgery, his walk rate jumped last season, and he is getting hit much harder as he has struggled to miss bats and his fastball velocity has trended downward. Verlander made it work last year because he knows how to pitch out of trouble, but all of these are troubling trends.
At 40 years old, the end is near for Verlander's Hall of Fame career. He is too good to expect him to completely fall off a cliff, but the Astros are going to have to manage his workload carefully if they want him to contribute the entire 2024 season. Verlander hasn't made more than 28 starts in a season since 2019 and given how things are trending, expect him to get more breaks and make less than 25 starts in 2024. At the end of the day, Father Time is undefeated.
The Astros will win 90+ games, but fail to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016
Okay, this is going to make Astros fans mad, but hear us out. The Astros are still a good baseball team. Given the strength of their lineup alone, a winning record is all but a mortal lock unless something pretty weird happens. However, with key players getting older and others leaving town, this may finally be the year when things don't go the Astros' way.
Much of this is outside of Houston's control. The biggest hurdle that Houston has is that the American League is just getting stronger. The Rangers are the defending World Series champions and should be getting Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer back at some point this season. The Orioles won 101 games last year, the Yankees just added Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman, and the Mariners, Rays, and Blue Jays all should be quite good in 2024. Hell, even the Red Sox could make some noise if the rest of the offseason goes their way and their young guys contribute.
Even if Houston performs exactly the same as they did last year which may not be realistic, that may not be enough to make the playoffs next year. Houston was fortunate to win the division last year as the Rangers and Mariners flubbed their chances to end their reign down the stretch. With the AL getting stronger and Houston largely standing pat, missing the playoffs altogether is a very real possibility whether Astros fans want to believe it or not.
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