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5 Astros starting pitching targets that need to be at the top of their wish list
The Astros chances at a World Series repeat were severely hampered by a diminished starting rotation. Let's look at five targets to bolster their rotation for 2024.
The Houston Astros rode a dominant rotation and elite bullpen to a World Series title in 2022. They chose not to address their rotation in 2023, letting Justin Verlander walk and signing no veteran free agents. Three months of missed time for José Urquidy and season-ending surgeries for both Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia later, their rotation was taxed and depleted.
Even trading for Verlander again couldn't save their rotation.
Here are 5 Astros starting pitching targets that need to be top priorities
The Astros would be wise not to repeat their mistake this offseason. The free agent class isn't incredibly deep, but there are some arms available that would go a long way towards giving them a World Series caliber rotation again. Let's take a look at who they are.
#1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Let's be clear: the likelihood of Houston signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto is roughly the same as the chances of Aroldis Chapman retiring Jose Altuve with a playoff game hanging in the balance. Slim to none.
But the title of this article is pitching targets that need to be at the top of their wishlist, not will be. And Yamamoto needs to be.
Yamamoto is the pretty consensus #2 free agent behind Shohei Ohtani. Houston signing a player of his caliber would be totally unprecedented. The Astros have never made a splash like that in franchise history, and Jim Crane avoids both long-term contracts and free agent splashes.
It's time he make one. The prospect cupboard isn't totally empty, but especially with regards to pitchers, there are more risks to be taken and bets to be made than there are can't miss arms.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the epitome of a can't miss arm. He just won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts and wins) in Japan after going 16-6 with a 1.21 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes. 1.21. That's laugh out loud good.
In seven seasons in Japan, Yamamoto is 75-30 with a 1.72 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.2 SO9, and comically good 2.0 BB9. His resume is eerily similar to what Yu Darvish did in seven seasons in Japan: 93-38 with a 1.99 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 8.9 SO9 and 2.4 BB9.
Darvish of course came to the bigs and in his first five seasons experienced great success. He was an All-Star four times and posted a 3.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 11.0 SO9. He was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young in his second year.
While they aren't the same pitcher, the Astros need an arm like that. Yamamoto has the potential to be even better than Darvish. He can be a franchise altering arm.
Houston can't just continue to count on Justin Verlander until he's on the wrong side of 50, and no matter how admirable a job players like Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco did this year, they can't bank on fringe prospects keeping their rotation afloat in the big leagues.
Yamamoto is projected to earn over $200 million. He'll likely sign a seven-year deal.
The Astros for once need to pony up, go over the tax to begin the season, and land a top free agent. There's almost zero chance they even consider signing Yamamoto, but if they do, they very likely have the best rotation in the MLB and are again the team to beat in the AL.
#2 Sonny Gray
Astros fans should be familiar with Sonny Gray after watching Houston beat the doors off of him in Game 3 of the ALDS. And while that memory may be bleak, Gray, though not possessing as high of a ceiling as Yamamoto, is just what the Astros need.
In 279 appearances in his career, Gray hols a 3.47 career ERA. He's durable, and aside from a nightmare 2016 season in Oakland and a brutal two-year spell with the Yankees where all careers go to die, he's been much better than the 3.47 mark.
In two years with the Twins, Gray has a 2.90 ERA. Over his last five seasons, Gray holds a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 9.8 SO9.
Not only does he hold good numbers, but he posts. Gray made 32 starts this season. He's started at least 26 games eight of the last 10 seasons. Injuries aren't a huge concern for Gray.
With an aging Justin Verlander, young arms like Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown getting acclimated to an increased workload, lasting durability questions around an arm like Lance McCullers, an unsure return timeline for Luis Garcia, and an erratic Framber Valdez possibly wearing down after an outrageous workload the last three seasons, the Astros need an arm they can trust to post every fifth/sixth day.
He may not go as deep into games with consistency as an arm like Verlander, but there is great value in consistent starts.
Gray is projected to receive three years and $64 million according to The Athletic. This would be a good use of funds for Houston.
#3 Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo is the type of swiss-army-knife arm with eye-popping spin rates that has long been linked to the Astros. His name isn't as flashy as Yamamoto or Gray, but he gets the job done and would be cheaper than both.
Lugo does hold a player option with the Padres, but he will likely decline it after starting again in 2023 for the first time since 2017. Lugo finished this year with a 3.57 ERA, 115 ERA+, 3.83 FIP, and only 2.2 BB9. His strikeouts have trended down in recent years, but he still knows how to get outs.
Lugo could start for Houston while LMJ and Luis Garcia rehab, then slide back into a relief role when they're back. Signing Lugo would fill both a rotation need and a bullpen need with Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek all hitting free agency.
The Astros could sign the 33-year-old for a two-year deal and kill two birds with one stone. While it may not move the needle as much as the first two, this is a much likelier move.
#4 Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta would be a very intriguing trade target. Corbin Burnes name was thrown around quite a bit last year as a trade target, especially after the Brewers fractured their relationship in arbitration. If the Brewers did decide to move Burnes, Houston doesn't have the prospect capital to land him.
But they might for Peralta. Peralta is under contract for the 2024 season with club options for 2024 and 2025. After losing Brandon Woodruff to injury for all of 2024, and with David Stearns now calling the shots for the Mets and attempting to lure Craig Counsell, could we see the Brewers tear it down?
The Brewers will either go all-in for a piece like Pete Alonso, or look to build a true contender after coming up short so many times.
Dana Brown should be on the phone to see if he can jumpstart that process. Peralta was 12-10 with a 3.86 ERA last year, right in line with his career average of 3.83.
His second half in particular was special. Peralta, one with some funky mechanics that lead to both deception and inconsistency, found the consistency that had been lacking. He posted a 2.81 ERA in 13 second-half starts, striking out 6.44 batters per walk.
In his last four seasons, Peralta has a 3.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He'd be a much needed boost in Houston's rotation. Landing an arm like Peralta for three years could give an arm like Hunter Brown the chance to continue developing out of the pen and limit his workload to keep him fresh.
Peralta would be very expensive, but some previous shoulder issues should knock the price down a bit. This would be a home run swing, but with an arms race taking shape in the AL West between Houston, Texas and Seattle, it's a swing worth taking.
#5 Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks had a strong rebound year after back-to-back nightmares in 2021 and 2022. Hendricks finished with a 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
He was a soft-contact machine, finishing in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity, 92nd percentile in hard hit rate, and 78th percentile in barrel rate. His changeup dominated opposing hitters, limiting them to a .189 average.
Hendricks could fill a similar role to what Zack Greinke did during his time in Houston. Post every fifth day, throw the daylights out of his off-speed pitches, turn back the clock every once in a while, and keep the Astros in ball games.
His days of competing for Cy Young awards are long behind him, but Hendricks would be a greath fifth or sixth starter for thr Astros. He'd bring reliability and consistency to a staff that needs it, and he could be had for a two-year deal with an AAV of around $12-13 million.
If the Cubs decline their team option, which they likely will, Dana Brown should call Hendricks' agent.
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