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5 Astros relievers who will have a much bigger role in 2024
With Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek all leaving in free agency, these five Astros relievers will be tasked with a much bigger responsibility in 2024.
The Houston Astros have fielded strong bullpens for the last few seasons. In 2022 in particular, Houston rode a particularly dominant bullpen to a World Series title.
Unfortunately, Hector Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek all are free agents this offseason, meaning Houston has to replace 1/3 of their bullpen innings from last year. With three of James Click's big acquisitions all leaving, Dana Brown has to rebuild the bullpen, and it sounds more and more likely Houston will do so with internal candidates.
So who are those candidates?
5 Astros relievers who will have a much bigger role in 2024
Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu are sure things in the eighth and ninth innings, but beyond them, lots of innings are up for grabs. Let's take a look at five Astros relievers who will have a much bigger role in 2024.
#1 Bennett Sousa
Bennett Sousa didn't draw much attention when the Astros claimed him off of waivers late in the season, but he looks like the Astros next great reclamation project.
Sousa made five appearances for the Astros down the stretch, throwing 6.1 scoreless innings, striking out eight and walking none. Sousa was ineligible for the playoff roster because of when he was claimed, but Dana Brown conceded he'd have been on the playoff roster were he eligible.
6.1 innings is a very small sample size, but Sousa looked like an elite reliever in his brief Astros tenure. He has crazy spin rates, and while again a small sample size, Statcast loved his xERA, xBA, whiff, chase, walk and strikeout rates.
His spin rate on his fastball and slider took off in Houston, which has been a constant during the Astros reign of terror.
Is Sousa going to be a high-leverage Houdidin artist like Hector Neris? Probably not. It would be totally unfair to expect a guy that bounced around the league to overnight replace one of the best leverage arms in the game.
But Sousa could absolutely fill a Phil Maton-esque role that eats up a lot of innings and is very capable of getting big bats out. Sousa will have the opportunity to carve out a big role for himself in 2024, and look for him to do just that.
#2 Kendall Graveman
The Astros traded for Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline to reinforce their bullpen. Graveman looked solid in his second stint with Houston, but a shoulder injury kept him off the playoff roster.
With an offseason ahead to recover, Graveman will enter Spring Training as the most proven high-leverage reliever making his case for the 7th inning role. His 2.42 ERA in 23 games with Houston was very nice, but he was volatile, and his 5.00 FIP and 6.4 BB/9 show he likely was very lucky to string together those numbers.
Graveman is never going to have Greg Maddux control, but he has to cut down on walk rates moving forward. If Graveman can get his walks per nine under 4.00, he still limits hard contact and misses a lot of bats. The high-leverage spot is Graveman's to lose entering 2024.
#3 Dylan Coleman
Dylan Coleman wasn't even an Astro in 2023, so any production he provides is an increased role.
Houston capitalized on the Royals roster crunch to land the low-risk, high reward righty. Coleman struggled mightily in 2023 in Kansas City after his velocity dropped and he lost control. But he's only one year removed from an absolutely dominant 2022 in which he looked like the Royals closer of the future.
Coleman has been working with Tread this offseason on his sweeper, and if he can land that next year, watch out. 18.1 bad innings are much too few to write off somebody with that high octane of stuff. Coleman recorded a 2.66 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.67 FIP and 156 ERA+ across 74.1 innings of work from 2021-22.
If he can get his walk rate back to 2022 levels, Coleman could replace Ryne Stanek seamlessly. He's probably not yet somebody you'd trust in a high leverage playoff spot if others are available, but throughout the course of the regular season, his stuff plays and he can get big outs while navigating 162 games.
Baseball Reference projects a 4.39 ERA and 1.37 WHIP for Coleman in 2024. Stanek just posted a 4.09 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP. If the Astros can unlock something new in Coleman as they have with arms like Will Harris, Collin McHugh, Ryan Pressly and Phil Maton, they could have something special in Coleman.
#4 Forrest Whitley
Last year we argued the Astros should convert Forrest Whitley to a reliever to save his career. Dana Brown announced they will do just that in 2024.
The once top prospect has had quite a fall, but the stuff is still there. Injuries have prevented Whitley from putting it all together. Asking Whitley to let it eat for 20-25 pitches is entirely different than asking him to navigate multiple times through an order and start every fifth day.
As long as Whitley stays healthy, he will be a middle reliever moving forward, and with as much emphasis as the Astros have placed on middle relief, he's one of the favorite internal candidates. If Whitley has a strong Spring, he will likely break camp with the big league club.
If not, Houston did get an extra option year do to his injuries and will no doubt bring him up at some point as they navigate injuries and workloads over 162 games. Barring catastrophe, we should finally see the much anticipated debut of the former ace of the future.
#5 Lance McCullers Jr.
And in a bit of a surprise, the Astros should roster the second-most expensive reliever in the MLB in 2024. No, they aren't going to sign Josh Hader. Lance McCullers Jr. should come out of the bullpen once he returns in 2024.
Houston is targeting a July return for McCullers. Since McCullers five-year extension went into effect, he has made eight regular season starts and two playoff starts. 2024 is year three of the deal. McCullers simply can't stay healthy.
Unless the Astros trade Jose Urquidy this off-season, they'll have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, Urquidy, and a returning Luis Garcia and LMJ to find starts for.
Injuries can always happen, as the Astros found out the hard way in 2023, but they have eight starters under contract. Sure, France could find himself in a middle relief role, but the Astros would be wise to get everything they can out of McCullers in 2024 while the title window is open in hopes he is fully healthy for 2025, likely their last shot at a title barring some truly stunning contract extensions and roster shakeups.
McCullers body simply hasn't been able to handle the workload of a starter. He's not a particularly efficient worker, and he throws a ton of breaking balls, putting a great deal of strain on his arm.
So let him tap into the 2017 playoff run and work in relief. McCullers could be a truly dominant leverage arm with the filthy breaking stuff he possesses. It would be a shocking development if the Astros tried it, but it's a move they should do in 2024.
JV, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Garcia and Urquidy/France form a formidable rotation. Houston needs McCullers health and contributing. The best way for Houston to do that in 2024 is to bring him out of the bullpen as a leverage arm.
If the Astros do that upon his return, they will once again have a dominant bullpen.
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