5 Astros players that have been horrifically unlucky in 2023

All things considered, the Houston Astros are in a good spot. Despite losing their past two games, everyone else in the American League West has been losing the last couple of days as a well. Houston's lead is just a half game over Texas and Seattle is lurking just 1.5 games back, but any lead is a lead in the division worth having especially this late in the season.

The Astros have had to overcome a lot to get to this point. A litany of injuries to key players on both sides of the ball made things incredibly difficult in the middle portion of the season especially when Texas' offense was going wild at the same time. However, one factor that isn't talked about enough is that the Astros have had some players that, for one reason or another, have played better than their counting stats show thanks to good ol' fashioned crummy luck.

Here are 5 Astros players that have been horrifically unlucky in 2023

Luck is extremely difficult to define, but that hasn't stopped baseball data analysts from trying to pull it off. What is going to be the focus here is a group of Astros players that have significantly underperformed their expectated stats (xStats if you will).

For hitters, that means looking at their xBA, BABIP, and xWOBA. For pitchers, FIP, xFIP and and xERA are going to be the focus. If you are unfamiliar advanced metrics, Fangraphs has a great glossary of analytics terms with detailed explanations you should definitely peruse. There will also be notes on players that have been unlucky in less math-y ways like injuries, etc.

Let's take a look at 5 Astros players that have been pretty unlucky in 2023.

Kyle Tucker

The focus here shouldn't be on players that have been objectively awesome as much, but Kyle Tucker's season is worth showing off to explain that a player can be good while also getting some bad batted ball luck. Through over 622 plate appearances this season, Tucker has a .283/.369/.504 slash line with a .368 wOBA in 2023. However, you choose to slice it, that is elite production.

However, the metrics tell us that Tucker actually SHOULD have been better this season. His xWOBA is .390 and his expected batting average is an elite .290. His BABIP is a bit low, but that isn't that strange since home runs aren't included in it. Tucker's hitting profile (elite plate discipline, consistently hits the ball hard) suggests that despite his awesome season, Kyle actually got a bit unlucky in 2023 to this point. For what it's worth, Yordan Alvarez has been very similar to Tucker and also got hurt in 2023.

Hunter Brown

It wasn't that long ago that Hunter Brown was the talk of the town as a guy with a ton of potential and who could help Houston weather all of the injuries in their rotation. However, the end results this season have been decidedly mixed. He certainly can rack up the strikeouts, but he also has a 4.61 ERA which is decidedly less good.

A look at Brown's peripherals, however, highlights the fact that he has gotten a bit unlucky in 2023. His FIP sits at a significantly lower 3.94, his xFIP even lower than that at 3.43, and his xERA is currently 4.00 ERA. Some of this is due to batters having an abnormally high BABIP against him at .336, but not everything is dumb luck. He still walks a few too many batters and when he gives up contact, it is usually hard contact which doesn't help in the batted ball luck department.

Yainer Diaz

Next up on the hitting side is Yainer Diaz who is an example of some bad luck but also having some warts to his game that can make bad luck uniquely worse. Overall, Diaz has been a breath of fresh air for Houston as he has posted a 127 wRC+ while Martin Maldonado has seemingly forgotten how to play baseball. His wOBA currently sits at .354 and he is hitting .284. All good things here.

However, Diaz has underperformed his xWOBA (.370) by 16 points and his xBA (.293) by a full nine points. Part of the problem here is that Diaz just doesn't draw walks with a miniscule 3.1% walk rate in 2023. When a guy isn't getting on base on anything other than balls in play, any bad batted ball luck is going to lead to wild swings in actual production. Assuming he can start taking more pitches outside the zone and stop swinging at them while continuing to hit the ball hard, he should be in great shape going forward.