4 X-factors that will make or break the Astros' offseason plans

The Houston Astros are about to enter a critically important transitional phase as an organization this offseason. Over the last several years, Houston has been one of the absolute best teams in all of baseball and they are going to enter the 2024 season as favorites to do so again unless the offseason is an absolute catastrophe.

However, whether or not the Astros can sustain this run of success after the 2024 season is very much up in the air. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are free agents after 2024, Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker still don't have contract extensions, and Houston has some players whose futures beyond next season are decidedly unclear. On top of all of that, the Astros have some wild cards going into this offseason that make game-planning extremely difficult to parse.

Here are 4 X-factors that will make or break the Astros' offseason plans

It was already well established that Houston is going to have some tough choices to make after next season, so we won't be focusing much on those decisions just yet. Those long-term considerations do matter, though, when looking at the context of this coming season and how urgently some of Houston's short-term problems/questions need to be addressed. There are a lot of moving parts right now and how well Dana Brown navigate these treacherous waters could easily make or break Houston for years to come.

Let's take a look at some of the x-factors that will determine how the Astros approach the upcoming offseason.

Do the Astros trust their outfield prospects going into 2024?

One thing that we know for sure is that Michael Brantley is about to become a free agent and the Astros bringing him back is far from an easy decision. Not only was out for a long time after having shoulder surgery, Brantley didn't look particularly good when he did finally return and he will be 37 years old for most of next season.

That makes getting Houston's outfield situated for next season a top priority and how ready Houston thinks their top outfield prospects are will color a lot of their offseason plan. Chas McCormick played well enough this season to earn regular playing time and Kyle Tucker is a lock for the next couple of years, but that third outfield spot is tricky to suss out.

After trading outfield prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford to the Mets to bring back Justin Verlander, Houston have a few outfield prospects of note that played in Double-A or higher last year in Joey Loperfido, Jacob Melton, Colin Barber, Kenedy Corona, and Justin Dirden. All of these guys rank in the top 15 or so Astros prospect rankings, but none of them are a sure thing to be able to break camp with Houston next spring as most of them still have some warts to their game at present.

While Melton is the higher rated prospect for the long-term, Loperfido probably has the best chance in all likelihood to make the Astros' roster out of spring training next year. He had a strong year at the plate in 2023 with an .880 OPS and mashed his way to Triple-A where he played 32 games although his production did drop off a bit there. Lopefido has a well-rounded toolset at the plate and would fit well in left field, but playing just one season at Double-A or higher is a tough sell for an Astros team that needs to compete in 2024.

How the Astros feel about all of those guys will determine what course of action they take during the offseason.

McCullers Jr. and Garcia's rehab progress will dictate a lot of Houston's offseason plans

Houston's rotation has some good things going for it heading into 2024. Justin Verlander is certainly in the twilight of his career, but he did show that he still knows how to pitch and it is reasonable to guess that he has at least one more season left in the tank. Framber Valdez is a stud and Cristian Javier gives the Astros a very solid #3. After that, though, things get really murky especially if one isn't bullish on Jose Urquidy's future as a starter.

The fundamental problem right now is that it is unknown as to when we could see Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia return. McCullers Jr. had to finally have surgery to repair his flexor tendon and a bone spur in his throwing arm while Garcia had Tommy John surgery in May. Both guys were pillars of the Astros' rotation and if they get healthy in 2024, they could turn Houston's starting staff into a strength of the roster.

Unfortunately, we won't know much about their timetable to return for a while, but clues may begin to emerge early this offseason. McCullers Jr. is supposed to begin throwing again this fall and Garcia will likely get back after it this offseason as well. If their rehab is going well, the Astros could sign a short-term starting solution to bridge the gap. If not, things could get more complicated especially since Houston doesn't exactly have a ton of money to throw around right now.

In the worst case scenario, Houston may have to turn to the trade market if they need to really beef up their rotation for 2024. They do also have some pitching prospects like Spencer Arrighetti and Colton Gordon who could factor into things as well. Given the number of variables in play, Houston has a lot to figure out and predict and they don't have a ton of time before they will be forced into making a decision.

It is unclear how aggressively the Astros will be able to rebuild their bullpen

While the Astros going after Justin Verlander at the trade deadline was heartening in the sense that it showed that Dana Brown is willing to be aggressive to improve Houston's roster, that move definitely complicated the Astros' payroll situation this year. Verlander is set to make over $43 million in 2024 and while the Mets sent a nice chunk of change over in that deal, JV is still getting paid a good bit and Houston is very close to the luxury tax threshold already for next season which could be a red line for owner Jim Crane.

Where this matters the most could be the bullpen which is going to need some revamping next season. Ryan Pressley was great and he is coming back, but Hector Neris was one the Astros' best relievers and he is likely to decline his $8.5 million player option and Ryne Stanek, who was great in 2022 but kinda stunk in 2023, is probably heading for the door as well.

Bullpens typically have the most turnover of any place on the roster, but how much wiggle room in their payroll the Astros have to bring in quality bullpen arms to restock is an open question. If Crane is willing to pay a bit in luxury tax penalties, then they will probably be fine and could even make a run at bringing Neris back into the fold.

However, if they are truly financial constrained this offseason, Dana Brown is going to have to go shopping in the clearance aisle and hoping that the Astros can find a diamond in the rough or two.