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4 ways the Astros could blow it and lose to the Rangers in the ALCS
The ALCS between the Astros and Rangers starts in just a matter of hours. What could possibly go wrong?
The Houston Astros' run through the 2023 playoffs has been very impressive. While the other division winners struggled yet again, the Astros have thrived as they mowed through the Minnesota Twins in route to their seventh straight ALCS appearance. The pitching has been mostly great, the lineup has given them the run support they needed, and the team has capitalized on nearly every opposing mistake. Good vibes all around.
However, make no mistake: the Rangers are going to be a very tough test even with the Astros dominating Texas in the regular season. They, too, are firing on all cylinders right now and could very easily steal this thing if Houston falters at all, which begs the question what battles can the Astros not afford to lose to win the ALCS?
Here are 4 ways the Astros could blow it and lose to the Rangers in the ALCS
Once we get this deep in the playoffs, it is assured that the team you are up against is both playing well at the moment and very dangerous overall. More often than not, the differences between teams can be measured in inches and that means every mistake and every poor performance is magnified and has added importance. While Houston has some clear advantages on paper, that doesn't mean things will play out this way and in a few cases, the Astros could very well be doomed if they don't.
Let's take a look at some ways the Astros could blow it against the Rangers in the ALCS.
Houston's pitching staff has to be at their best to hold the Rangers' offense in check
The Astros' pitching staff overall is a strength in this ALCS matchup. Jordan Montgomery has been extremely good for Texas, but the Astros have to feel pretty good about having Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier available to them to start in this series. Among the teams still in the playoffs, only the Phillies have a trio of starters that can compare to Houston among starting pitching staffs.
However, they will not have much room for error against this Rangers offense. Texas ranked third in all of baseball in 2023 by fWAR at 33.3, fourth in team wRC+ at 114, and all of that was before Evan Carter decided to start his reign of terror in the playoffs. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Carter are all guys that can singlehandedly take over a game at the plate.
Containing that offense has to be the top priority for the Astros going into the series. It is certainly worth noting that Houston has done a good job of that this season as going 9-4 against a team in a season doesn't happen by accident. However, the playoffs are a very different environment than the regular season and the pressure has claimed more than a few teams over the years. Fortunately for the Astros, this rotation has plenty of experience in these sorts of must-win games.
Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker need to show up for the ALCS
The Astros' offense has gotten the job done so far in the playoffs. Yordan Alvarez (more on him in a second) was on a warpath against the Twins as they had no answer for him. Jose Abreu woke up at exactly the right time and backed up Yordan's efforts. Altuve, McCormick, and Brantley played supporting roles, but important ones. However, two players that are going to need to step things up in the ALCS are Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.
Tucker and Bregman weren't completely quiet in the ALDS as Bregman did hit a homer and Kyle got on-base a bit, but both players underperformed overall. Alex slashed .200/.294/.400 with three hits while Kyle Tucker struggled even more with a .143/.294/.214 with six strikeouts. Not exactly ideal from two of the top four guys in one's lineup.
If Houston is going to pull this off, they simply are going to need more out of Tucker and Bregman. Even with Yordan doing his thing, it isn't wise to hang a ton of hope on Abreu's bat given what happened this year and these two guys are supposed to be among Houston's best hitters. The Astros just need them to play like it.
Houston probably can't win without a big series from Yordan Alvarez
Speaking of Yordan Alvarez, how about the postseason this guy is having. After a 2023 regular season where he slashed .293/.407/.583 with 31 homers despite missing a big chunk of time with an injury, Yordan has put up a staggering 1.784 OPS in the playoffs with four homers already. If you want to circle one name on the Astros' roster that was THE key to Houston taking down the Twins, it would be Alvarez.
This shouldn't be all that surprising as Yordan is just one of those guys that thrives under the bright lights. In his career, Alvarez has an .895 OPS with 10 homers in his career and at this point, it is hard to call it a small sample size. Every time he steps into the box, there is a chance that he can change the course of a game with one swing of his bat.
For the Astros to have a chance against Texas in the ALCS, they are going to need him to play a big part. We have seen playoff series (like the 2021 World Series against the Braves) where he struggled and when that happens, the Houston offense can struggle to fill the void. He doesn't necessarily have to carry the offensive load completely by himself, but he is going to need to be in the thick of things.
The Astros' bullpen cannot take their foot off the gas now
While there are certainly some arms in the Astros' bullpen that can make things far more interesting than anyone would want, overall Houston's relievers have been a source of strength this postseason. In nine appearances so far this postseason total, Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressley, Rafael Montero, and Phil Maton have yet to give up an earned run. That is absurd and great news going into a matchup against a tough offense like the Rangers'.
Not all the news has been great in the bullpen this postseason, though. as Hunter Brown and Ryne Stanek have only been okay and Hector Neris, one of Houston's best relievers in the regular season, got torched in Game One of the ALDS. It is possible that he was a bit distracted from the fallot of the near brawl he instigated against the Mariners, but it was nonetheless pretty jarring to see him struggle like it he did.
With the Rangers' bullpen being far less formidable, this is an area where Houston has to press their advantage. There is a very decent chance that a lot of these games will be close late and the Houston bullpen simply has to do what they did against Minnesota: keep games close and miss a lot of bats. If they can, the Astros should be in a great spot. If the bullpen falters, though, then things could go sideways in a hurry.
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