4 under the radar trade targets for the Astros this offseason

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The trade market is believed to be incredibly hot with a somewhat light free agent class. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and maybe a resurgent Aaron Nola, there aren't a ton of franchise changing talents on the free agent market.

Here's 4 under the radar trade targets for the Astros this offseason

With the Astros unlikely to shell out top money for a piece like Yamamoto, and also unlikely to overpay for a streaky talent like Blake Snell or Cody Bellinger, where might they find upgrades? We already looked at four under the radar free agent targets they Astros could target for marginal and inexpensive upgrades, but what about via trade. Are there available pieces that could help improve their depth in areas of need?

Let's look at some under the radar trade candidates the Astros could look to land as an upgrade.

#1 Seth Brown

It's probably surprising to see a member of the hapless Oakland A's listed as a potential upgrade for Houston, but Seth Brown actually could be incredibly useful in Houston. The Astros simply have to hit right handed pitchers better and hit better at home in 2024.

Enter Seth Brown into the mix. He's definitely a platoon player, as the lefty is almost a guaranteed out anytime a southpaw is on the hill. But for his career, Brown is a .238 hitter with a .776 OPS and 110 OPS+ against righties.

He's also been punished by playing in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum, where he holds a .718 OPS versus a .751 OPS on the road.

Brown could be had for a mid-tier prospect or two, and there's a chance for a big breakout in Houston. His contact numbers were down a bit from his 2022 season, but he still finished 2023 in the 79th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rates, as well as 69th in xSLG.

Houston slugged only .411 at home this season--a terrible mark for a contending team. For the second time in five years, Houston lost a seven-game series in which they went 0-4 at home. Houston has to find ways to score. Brown isn't going to come to Houston and win AL MVP, but he's a massive upgrade over Jon Singleton as a bench piece. With Yainer Diaz now the everyday catcher, Brown can serve as DH on days when Yordan Alvarez is in left to give the Astros another power threat against right-handed pitching. And he would provide them a true threat as a pinch-hitter in October.

#2 Willy Adames

Willy Adames isn't exactly an under the radar player, but this falls under the category of under the radar because it's been talked about by exactly nobody. Is Adames in Houston next year unlikely? Yes.

But does it make sense? Hmmm, let's see.

Jeremy Peña is coming off of a woefully disappointing 2023 season. He followed up his breakout playoff showing in 2022 with exactly zero power. Peña went homerless for the last three months of the season, and while his discipline at the plate did improve, he remained little more than a singles generator that rarely walked.

With Martín Maldonado's bat mercifully no longer in the lineup two out of every three days, there is a case to be made for Peña sticking in the lineup as there would no longer be two liabilites (three if you account for José Abreu's injury most of the season).

But what if they can't afford to withstand more offensive ineptitude from Peña? While Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve were big losses do to injury, the Astros were actually one of the healthiest lineups in the MLB last season with regards to games missed and duration of total IL stints. If the injury bug hits them harder, can they accept another non-threat?

What if Chas McCormick regresses? What if José Abreu at age 37 replicates his age-36 campaign, or worse? Can Yainer Diaz withstand the workload of being the everyday catcher, or do his numbers fall back?

There are some questions to answer in the Astros lineup. And now with Brandon Woodruff out for the year in the final year of his contract, Corbin Burnes on an expiring deal, and Craig Counsell managing the Cubs, the Brewers have questions to answer as well.

Could Houston work out a deal around Adames and Peña? Adames for his career has a .757 OPS and 107 OPS+. He finished 2023 in the 82nd percentile in both walk rate and barrel percentage, and the 69th percentile in xwOBA. In comparison, Peña finished in the 30th percentile in walk rate, 19th percentile in xwOBA, and 10th percentile in barrel rate. Adames hit 24 home runs to Peña's 10.

Adames would give the Astros more of a threat at the bottom of the order, but he also is one of the only shortstops that can rival Peña defensively. Adames was worth 8 DRS last year while finishing with 16 outs above average. He'd be a seamless fit up the middle in Houston.

Adames only has two years of team control and is more fitting of the Astros contention timeline. Peña is under contract through 2028, so he likely has more value in a trade. The Astros could likely get a reliever or prospect in the deal as well to help replenish their depleted system.

It would be bold and incredibly unexpected to sell on a second-year player with an ALCS and World Series MVP under his belt, but it's the type of outside the box move that could push the Astros back over the top in 2024.

#3 Hunter Harvey

Hunter Harvey has quietly been one of the better relievers in baseball over the last two years. In 95 appearances for the Nationals, Harvey has thrown 100 innings, posting a 2.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 2.81 FIP. His fastball velocity is in the 97th percentile, he limits walks with a 5.5% walk rate, and strikes out opposing hitters at a 28.5% clip.

It's no secret the Astros have to rebuild their bullpen after the losses of Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek. Harvey actually has some similarities to Stanek as a flame-throwing righty, but unlike Stanek, he allows virtually no walks.

Harvey would come with two years of team control, not quite fitting the Nationals window of when their young talent will be ready to contend. A player of Jake Meyers caliber could easily head to Washington in exchange of Harvey, giving the Astros a filthy three-headed monster in the back of the pen with Harvey, Abreu, and Pressly.

#4 Dylan Carlson

The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson is only two years' removed from being a top-10 prospect in the MLB. In his first full-season, Carlson hit .266 with a .780 OPS, good for a third-place finish in NL rookie of the year voting.

Since then, though, it's been a bit of a struggle. He's hitting .230 with a .680 OPS over the last two seasons.

He can play all three positions in the outfield, and while Dana Brown said the Astros aren't looking for any additional outfielders, the switch-hitter is a prime buy-low candidate. In his career, Carlson holds an .848 OPS against lefties. An outfield platoon of McCormick in left, Carlson in center and Tucker in right with Yordan as the DH would give left-handed pitchers fits.

Carlson is a great base-runner, above average defender, and he is a patient hitter that doesn't expand the zone or whiff. His approach would fit in seamlessly in Houston.

The Cardinals have a logjam of outfielders, and have been forced to play Jordan Walker there out of position. If they do trade from their surplus, the Astros could trade from their starting pitching surplus and make a good match.

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Here's 4 under the radar trade targets for the Astros this offseason

#1 Seth Brown

#2 Willy Adames

#3 Hunter Harvey

#4 Dylan Carlson

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