4 Reasons Why Justin Verlander Back In Houston Could Be A Mistake

Well, it's happened. In literally less than a year, Justin Verlander is back with the Houston Astros. In order to help their struggling rotation, General Manager Dana Brown pulled the trigger, acquiring the three-time Cy Young Award winner from the New York Mets in exchange for two key prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Verlander initially believed he would stay in New York, but the Mets decided to go in a different direction after completely underperforming in the first half of the 2023 season.

Injuries have plagued Houston's pitching staff throughout this year, causing the loss of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the entire 2023 season. The team has had to rely on minor leaguers J.P. France, Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak to step up. Aside from France's stellar rookie year, both Blanco and Bielak have turned in mediocre performances on what was expected to be a championship-caliber pitching staff. This was a stark contrast from last year's rotation, which was considered the best in the majors.

There's no doubt having Verlander back on the team boosts the rotation as a co-ace to Framber Valdez. However, as intriguing as this move may be for the average baseball fan, it could have serious long-term ramifications for the Astros. Here are four reasons why this trade will likely be something the Astros regret.

Reason 1: Age and Injury Factor

Verlander, despite his exceptional talent and resume with Houston between 2017-2022, is not immune to the one factor that all athletes grapple with: age. Now 40 years old, Verlander's career is naturally nearing its twilight. While his Cy Young year in 2022 was an incredible comeback from Tommy John surgery during 2020-2021, it isn't ruling out any future injuries to the aging star.

This became a reality exacerbated by his injury-plagued stint with the Mets. A delayed start to his 2023 season due to injury was far from an ideal beginning, and while his resilience was commendable, his subsequent form was hardly consistent. Despite starting with a 4.80 ERA in May, Verlander managed to find his footing, delivering a 3.33 ERA in June and an impressive 1.69 ERA in July.

Given his recent success, the larger question continues to rear its ugly head: Will he be able to maintain this momentum at age 40? As Verlander continues to age, his susceptibility to injury increases, and his recovery time lengthens. Will the Astros' decision to bet on him pay off, or will it leave them scrambling to fill a gap that they didn't foresee?

Reason 2: Postseason Woes

Despite regaining his ace form in the 2022 regular season, Verlander failed to bring that same performance to the 2022 postseason. Each start felt like a struggle, with a particularly challenging game against the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of the 2022 American League Division Series. While his starts in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees and Game 5 of the World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies were strong, Verlander had to work hard for key outs. Verlander finished the 2022 postseason with an underwhelming 5.85 ERA across four starts.



His postseason difficulties date back to 2018, when he posted a 4.15 ERA over three starts. These struggles continued into his 2019 Cy Young season. Verlander's postseason opener against the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019 was impressive, delivering seven shutout innings with eight punchouts. However, his performance waned over the next five starts, culminating in a 5.81 ERA.



Look, even at 40, Verlander maintains solid regular season performance. We know that. It's all about the postseason. Aside from 2017, the postseason has posed ongoing challenges since his first World Series ring. Despite these struggles, the team's decision to acquire him is an answer to help defend their World Series title. Based on his postseason stats, it's questionable if his performance will shift. It's likely that Verlander's postseason inconsistencies reprise the Achilles heel role that inevitably undermine the Astros' ambitions.

Reason 3: Financial Implications and The Kyle Tucker Problem

Verlander's contract is worth $86.7 million over its first two years, with a $35 million vested option for the third year if he pitches more than 140 innings in 2025. This initially seemed burdensome, as it appeared to dictate the contract extension of popular outfielder Kyle Tucker a foregone reality.

However, the Astros' front office has potentially improved their odds of keeping the Gold Glover. In addition to Verlander, the Mets provided $54 million in cash compensation to the Astros, effectively splitting the contract payment. Instead of a $43 million outlay for two years, the Astros are now expected to pay around $29 million over 2 1/3 years. While the move eases the financial burden, it also puts emphasis on re-signing Tucker. Although capable, Dana Brown and Owner Jim Crane need to take action, ideally sooner rather than later.