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4 Reasons Why Justin Verlander Back In Houston Could Be A Mistake
While the return of Verlander to the Houston Astros certainly brings a boost to the struggling rotation, there are several reasons why this may backfire.
Well, it's happened. In literally less than a year, Justin Verlander is back with the Houston Astros. In order to help their struggling rotation, General Manager Dana Brown pulled the trigger, acquiring the three-time Cy Young Award winner from the New York Mets in exchange for two key prospects Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. Verlander initially believed he would stay in New York, but the Mets decided to go in a different direction after completely underperforming in the first half of the 2023 season.
Injuries have plagued Houston's pitching staff throughout this year, causing the loss of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia for the entire 2023 season. The team has had to rely on minor leaguers J.P. France, Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak to step up. Aside from France's stellar rookie year, both Blanco and Bielak have turned in mediocre performances on what was expected to be a championship-caliber pitching staff. This was a stark contrast from last year's rotation, which was considered the best in the majors.
There's no doubt having Verlander back on the team boosts the rotation as a co-ace to Framber Valdez. However, as intriguing as this move may be for the average baseball fan, it could have serious long-term ramifications for the Astros. Here are four reasons why this trade will likely be something the Astros regret.
Reason 1: Age and Injury Factor
Verlander, despite his exceptional talent and resume with Houston between 2017-2022, is not immune to the one factor that all athletes grapple with: age. Now 40 years old, Verlander's career is naturally nearing its twilight. While his Cy Young year in 2022 was an incredible comeback from Tommy John surgery during 2020-2021, it isn't ruling out any future injuries to the aging star.
This became a reality exacerbated by his injury-plagued stint with the Mets. A delayed start to his 2023 season due to injury was far from an ideal beginning, and while his resilience was commendable, his subsequent form was hardly consistent. Despite starting with a 4.80 ERA in May, Verlander managed to find his footing, delivering a 3.33 ERA in June and an impressive 1.69 ERA in July.
Given his recent success, the larger question continues to rear its ugly head: Will he be able to maintain this momentum at age 40? As Verlander continues to age, his susceptibility to injury increases, and his recovery time lengthens. Will the Astros' decision to bet on him pay off, or will it leave them scrambling to fill a gap that they didn't foresee?
Reason 2: Postseason Woes
Despite regaining his ace form in the 2022 regular season, Verlander failed to bring that same performance to the 2022 postseason. Each start felt like a struggle, with a particularly challenging game against the Seattle Mariners in Game 1 of the 2022 American League Division Series. While his starts in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees and Game 5 of the World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies were strong, Verlander had to work hard for key outs. Verlander finished the 2022 postseason with an underwhelming 5.85 ERA across four starts.
His postseason difficulties date back to 2018, when he posted a 4.15 ERA over three starts. These struggles continued into his 2019 Cy Young season. Verlander's postseason opener against the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019 was impressive, delivering seven shutout innings with eight punchouts. However, his performance waned over the next five starts, culminating in a 5.81 ERA.
Look, even at 40, Verlander maintains solid regular season performance. We know that. It's all about the postseason. Aside from 2017, the postseason has posed ongoing challenges since his first World Series ring. Despite these struggles, the team's decision to acquire him is an answer to help defend their World Series title. Based on his postseason stats, it's questionable if his performance will shift. It's likely that Verlander's postseason inconsistencies reprise the Achilles heel role that inevitably undermine the Astros' ambitions.
Reason 3: Financial Implications and The Kyle Tucker Problem
Verlander's contract is worth $86.7 million over its first two years, with a $35 million vested option for the third year if he pitches more than 140 innings in 2025. This initially seemed burdensome, as it appeared to dictate the contract extension of popular outfielder Kyle Tucker a foregone reality.
However, the Astros' front office has potentially improved their odds of keeping the Gold Glover. In addition to Verlander, the Mets provided $54 million in cash compensation to the Astros, effectively splitting the contract payment. Instead of a $43 million outlay for two years, the Astros are now expected to pay around $29 million over 2 1/3 years. While the move eases the financial burden, it also puts emphasis on re-signing Tucker. Although capable, Dana Brown and Owner Jim Crane need to take action, ideally sooner rather than later.
Reason 4: The Price of Top Prospects
The acquisition of Verlander also involves the loss of two key prospects. Outfielder Drew Gilbert, ranked as the No. 68 prospect by MLB and selected as the 28th overall pick in the first round in 2022, had been performing admirably between high Class A and Double-A affiliate Corpus Christi Hooks, batting .274 with 12 home runs and a .821 OPS. Gilbert, who was expected to receive an invitation to Astros' 2024 Spring Training, was also chosen to represent the Astros at the 2023 All-Star Futures Game. His departure to the Mets deprives the Astros of a promising outfield prospect. Another loss in the Verlander deal is Ryan Clifford. The No. 2 prospect via MLB is batting .271 with a .903 OPS in high A Ashville.
With the loss of young talent, Houston may have inadvertently created a void in future lineups. The loss of such promising players could hinder the Astros' long-term team development, a situation made even more critical considering the age and potential health issues of their newly acquired veteran star. Additionally, this also underscores the importance of re-signing Tucker, especially given the void left by former outfielder George Springer.
A Multi-Faceted Issue
To sum it up, Verlander's return to the Astros brings a wealth of experience and re-fills the void in the depleted rotation. However, this isn't devoid of potential long-term complications. The combined factors of Verlander's age, his injury history, inconsistent postseason performances, potential implications of his contract, and the loss of two high-potential prospects provide some unanswered questions for the defending champs.
One thing is clear: It's now or never. If Houston fails to secure back-to-back titles, it'll be a huge blow to the team and their future.