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4 keys to the Astros bouncing back to win ALCS Game 2
The Astros lost game 1 of the ALCS in embarrassing fashion. Let's look at the keys to bouncing back in Game 2.
Last night saw an all too familiar result play out for the 2023 Astros--an embarrassing loss at home. Now, the Rangers are a very good baseball team. Losing to them as a whole isn't embarrassing in its own right, but the way in which the Astros lost was quite pathetic.
They wasted a fantastic start from Justin Verlander, squared up virtually zero baseballs, refused to work deep in counts against Jordan Montgomery, and committed an inexcusable base running blunder.
Hope isn't lost, as time after time we've seen this team dig themselves out of a hole. Let's look at the four keys to the Astros winning ALCS Game 2.
#1: Kyle Tucker needs to wake up
Earth to King Tuck. Anybody home? Kyle Tucker is going to likely finish in the top-five of AL MVP voting. He had an absolutely monstrous season, finishing one home run shy of a 30/30 season.
He's also been a ghost at the plate so far in the playoffs.
Tucker is 2-18 so far. Both of his hits are singles and he's driven in only one run. Tucker did damage all year in the heart of the Astros order, leading the AL in RBI. Right now the only thing Tucker is damaging is the Astros chances of winning.
In order for Houston to bounce back, they're going to need signs of life from Kyle Tucker. He really hasn't squared up a baseball yet in the postseason. As the Rangers appear set to repeatedly pound Yordan Alvarez inside and force somebody else to beat them, Kyle Tucker needs to do so.
#2: Continue limiting chances for Corey Seager
The Astros pitching was fantastic last night. They held the vaunted Rangers offense to only two runs on six hits. If José Abreu is able to secure the ground ball Evan Carter hit in the second, or even just keep it on the infield, it's a one-run game.
Verlander, Neris, and Abreu were fantastic. Part of what made them successful was how they were able to pitch to Corey Seager.
Seager came into Game 1 of the ALCS on an outrageous tear, hitting .428 and walking 11 times in 25 total plate appearances. The Astros were able to attack Seager in the zone all night, and though JV did get away with a hanging slider to him in the third, largely pitched to great success, limiting Seager to a 1-4 night.
They were able to attack him because in all four at-bats the bases were empty ahead of Seager. Worst case he hits a ball 500 feet and they still only have one run to show for it.
The Rangers can string together explosive innings better than any time in baseball. Limiting the RBI chances for Seager, who drove in 96 runs in only 119 games, will remain vital to keeping the Rangers offense suppressed.
#3: Get to Nathan Eovaldi early
Nathan Eovaldi is one of the best playoff pitchers of his generation. Eovaldi enters Game 2 with a 6-3 playoff record and 2.70 playoff ERA.
He also enters Game 2 facing a lineup that has owned him. Aside from Chas McCormick, all of the Astros regular starters have great career numbers against Eovaldi.
The Astros collectively have a career .990 OPS against Nathan Eovaldi.
— Ryan Bokros (@ryanbokros) October 16, 2023
Notables - Brantley will likely be starting in LF tonight and has the worst long-term matchup stats.
Chas doesn't see Eovaldi well (or something) and has 4Ks in 7 ABs (small sample) - but this may be enough… pic.twitter.com/3rLkcYafL9
Last time Houston saw Eovaldi was September 5th. Like tonight, Framber Valdez toed the rubber for Houston against Eovaldi. Eovaldi lasted only 1.1 innings. Yes, he was returning from injury, but he also allowed five hits and four earned runs in only 35 pitches.
He looks much healthier now, but it is paramount the Astros jump Eovaldi, give Valdez some breathing room, and force the Rangers shaky bullpen to expend bullets early.
If we get a repeat of the Astros against Eovaldi in Game 4 of the 2021 ALCS, Houston will hit the road having tied the series at 1-1.
#4: Framber Valdez has to answer the bell
We listed Framber as one of the biggest factors that will decide the ALCS before Game 1. Does the Framber Valdez that was dominant for all of 2022, the 2022 postseason, and the first half of 2023 show up?
Or do the Astros get the Framber Valdez that finished the second-half with a 4.66 ERA?
Does the Framber Valdez that held Texas to only one-run in the aforementioned September showdown with Eovaldi toe the rubber? Or does the Framber Valdez that melted down and gave up six runs in 3.2 innings on July 26th make tonight's start?
It's hard to call Game 2 of a series a must-win, especially with how dominant the Astros were on the road this season, but in no world do the Astros want to fall down 2-0 against a lineup as lethal as the Rangers.
In order for the Astros to knot the series at 1-1, the strike-throwing, ground ball double play inducing, curveball hammering Framber Valdez must be the one to make the start this afternoon. Houston needs 6+ of two runs or less from their co-ace if they're going to tie the series.
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