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4 Astros that will struggle to replicate their 2023 season in 2024
While the Astros had a great 2023, they still came up short of their ultimate goal. If they are to get over the hurdle in 2024, they'll likely need to overcome some regression from these players.
The Astros had another strong 2023 season. They took home yet another AL West title and went back to the ALCS for the seventh straight season.
For many teams, that's a success, but for Houston, it's title or bust. They had some underachievers like José Abreu, who we profiled in our 5 Astros players that are primed for a much improved 2024 season piece, but also had some big time overachievers that carried a ton of weight to take them as far as they went. Repeat performances may not be likely.
4 Astros that will struggle to replicate their 2023 season in 2024
Now, to be clear, this doesn't mean these players will necessarily be bad in 2024, but rather, they won't replicate what were fantastic 2023 seasons. Let's take a look at five Astros likely to regress in 2024.
#1 Chas McCormick
We love Chas McCormick. All season we argued how inexcusable it was that Chas was getting irregular playing time. Chas is a well above-average MLB outfielder and should start every day.
That said, it's hard to believe he will replicate his 2023 season. McCormick hit .273 with an .842 OPS and 130 OPS+ last season. In only 115 games, McCormick hit 22 home runs and stole 19 bases. That's borderline All-Star game starter production.
His Statcast metrics portray some regression is likely. His batting average was nearly 30 points higher than his xBA, and his hard-hit percentage was only in the 37th percentile, leading to a higher than slugging percentage than his expected contact.
He also was the second best hitter in the MLB against fastballs, in the company of names like Matt Olson, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and teammate Kyle Tucker.
Is McCormick a very good MLB player? Absolutely. But is he probably closer to a .260 hitter with an .800 OPS than the dominant force he was in 2023? Yes. He should still start every day, but don't be surprised if McCormick comes slightly back to earth in 2024.
#2 Mauricio Dubón
No Astro outperformed expectations in 2023 more than Mauricio Dubón. Much of the fanbase wanted Houston to move on from Dubie after a dreadful 2022 season, but he more than made up for his struggles in 2023.
Dubón kept the Astros afloat during the two months they missed Altuve, finishing as a Gold Glove finalist at second base and winning the utility Gold Glove award. While a player of Dubón's caliber probably shouldn't be batting leadoff in 2023, he did a more than admirable job.
All together, Dubie hit .278 with a .720 OPS and 97 OPS+. One year prior he hit .214 with a .565 OPS.
Dubón is a singles hitting utility player, which is a great asset to have. He's above-average defensively at multiple positions, and can slap the ball around the field. His defense will likely remain a constant, but to expect Dubón to replicate his offense would be foolish.
Dubie is great depth off the bench, but he shouldn't start 132 times this year and he's very unlikely to replicate his offense is he does.
#3 J.P. France
J.P. France came out of nowhere to help stabilize the Astros rotation in 2023. After getting called up to replace the injured José Urquidy and Luis Garcia, France became a rotation mainstay.
The walks that had plagued him all throughout his minor league career disappeared en route to France posting a 3.83 ERA and 110 ERA+. The Astros legitimately could not have asked for more.
France did struggle mightily down the stretch, posting a 5.92 ERA in August and 5.75 in September. While he's not that poor of a pitcher, his 4.37 second half ERA is likely closer to the pitcher he is than his 3.26 first half ERA. His Statcast sheet is littered with blue, indicating he gave up plenty of loud contact. His xERA sat at 4.86.
France may begin the year in the rotation, but once Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. return, he likely becomes a middle/long reliever. Even if his counting stats don't regress, it would be stunning to see France make 23 starts again in 2024.
He was a huge asset in 2023. And he will remain a big leaguer moving forward. It's just unlikely he remains a rotation mainstay as the Astros get multiple arms back.
#4 Yainer Diaz
Just like Chas McCormick, we love Yainer Diaz. It remains totally inexcusable that Diaz wasn't catching more in 2023. Houston could have used both his bat and his defense.
That said, expecting Yainer to replicate his 2023 season in his first full-year may be asking a bit much. Diaz hit .282 with 23 home runs and an .846 OPS in only 355 at-bats. He's got fantastic bat-to-ball skills and has a ton of power in his swing.
Diaz is undoubtedly the Astros catcher of the future. That said, it's likely he has to go through some growing pains in 2024.
Yainer is quite possibly the least discipline hitter in the MLB. He will likely always be a free-swinger, and that doesn't necessarily have to change, but he finished in the 1st percentile in chase rate and walk rate, and his whiff rate was 37th percentile.
His playoff struggles highlighted the book being out on Diaz. Yainer went 1-14 with five strikeouts in the postseason. Teams repeatedly threw him sliders that started on the plate before diving out of the zone. Yainer never laid off.
If you throw him a fastball, you're likely going to be getting it back out of the left field seats, but if you start a breaking ball on the outside edge, he's probably going to chase.
He's a young hitter still learning the game, and more plate discipline will come as time goes on. But as Diaz looks to grow as a hitter while carrying the weight of leading a staff, don't be surprised if his strikeouts rise and his average and OPS take a dip in 2024.
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