Fansided

4 Astros Predictions We Already Know We Were Wrong About

By Alec Brown |
Houston Astros v Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros v Pittsburgh Pirates / Joe Sargent/GettyImages
1 of 4
Next

The baseball offseason is filled with takes and predictions galore. Some you get right, others you get embarrassed on. We made our fair share of takes on Houston, and now we've pulled the receipts on ourselves.

Here are the four Astros predictions we already know we were wrong about.

First up, one involving an Astros Cy Young candidate.

#1: Framber Valdez takes a step back

To be fair, this wasn’t a prediction that Framer Valdez would be bad, but it made sense that that MLB’s leader in groundball outs would regress after the shift was eliminated.

Or not.

In four starts, Valdez is only 1-2, but his win/loss record has been impacted by an anemic offense and some bad defense behind him. Framer currently possesses a 1.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.

Valdez has cut down on his walks while simultaneously increasing his strikeouts. Without the shift, he will allow some more dribbler hits than he has in years prior. 

But if the Astros bats wake up and the defense is stout behind him, Valdez will no doubt be in Cy Young contention again down the stretch.

Houston Astros v Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros v Pittsburgh Pirates / Justin K. Aller/GettyImages

#2: David Hensley breaks out

David Hensley was fantastic in 2022. He hit .298 with an .898 OPS in 104 games in Sugar Land, before continuing to produce in Houston after his late season call-up. The utility player hit .345 with a 1.027 OPS and even picked up a couple of knocks in the World Series.

I expected Hensley to be a big contributor this year and play Mauricio Dubon out of a job. Instead it has been the opposite. Dubón is now batting leadoff and Hensley is struggling to find playing time and consistent at-bats after a dreadful start.

Hensley is currently hitting .175 with only a .442 OPS and 28 OPS+. The former on base machine has 16 strikeouts to only five walks. Hensley had a chance to have a big year in 2023, especially after the injury to Jose Altuve. So far, he’s done anything but.

Houston Astros v Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros v Minnesota Twins / David Berding/GettyImages

#3: Phil Maton gets moved

Phil Maton likely began the season in the doghouse after punching his way out of the playoffs last season. With Houston bringing back a dominant bullpen and more young arms waiting in the wings, I thought Maton could get moved near the deadline.

Not so fast…

Across seven appearances, Phil has thrown 8.1 innings and struck out 10. His 0.36 WHIP isn’t sustainable, but he’s cut down on walks and is in the 100th percentile of hard hit rate. Guys just can’t square Maton up right now.

In 2021, Maton was a lights out reliever for Houston in the postseason. He looks to have found his form again in 2023.

Toronto Blue Jays v Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays v Houston Astros / Logan Riely/GettyImages

We published our apology to the Astros utility man yesterday, but I wanted Dubón out of Houston. I didn’t think he could hit and I was a big believer in David Hensley. Maybe it was wishful thinking, but I assumed once the team was fully healthy and prospects continued to produce, there wouldn't be a spot for Dubón any linger and he would be designated for assignment.

Instead, Dubón has done nothing but produce this season, and actually leads the team in bWAR. Under contract through 2027, Dubón isn’t going anywhere.

Expect to see him get some reps back in center field and at short once Altuve has made his recovery.

Next
Home / Astros News

Schedule