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4 Astros players that are due for huge postseason performances
With the Astros playoffs starting this Saturday against the Minnesota Twins, four key players are in desperate need of a performance boost under the intense spotlight of the postseason.
In the playoffs, each team has one or more players on the roster that unexpectedly come alive in the postseason following an overlooked regular season and the Houston Astros are no different. Think of recent playoff heroes like Steve Pearce on the 2018 Boston Red Sox, Eddie Rosario on the 2021 Atlanta Braves, or Yuli Gurriel on the 2022 Houston Astros.
With these players in mind, here are four key players that could fill that role for the Astros postseason.
Jose Abreu
Jose Abreu being due for a monster postseason is an understatement. The former MVP has endured statistically the worst season of his 10 year career while batting .237 with a .680 OPS and a 87 OPS+. Nearly everything on the advanced stats and analytics were career lows for Abreu this season. From his .276 BABIP, a career-low 41.7% hard hit percentage, to a negative WAR (-0.1) and Win Probability (-1.2), his $60 million contract for three years was barely an improvement for Yuli Gurriel's replacement.
Given his struggles, Abreu has steadily come alive in the power department as of late, hitting 13 extra base hits with 7 homers since the start of September. In the final four games of the regular season, Abreu hit 6 for 16 with six ribbies, attune to a .375 AVG. It would mean wonders for the Astros starting lineup if Abreu can somehow find his swing during the postseason. . His enhanced performance has the potential to shield crucial players like Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, and Chas McCormick, ensuring steadiness and threat in the lineup’s core. This could fortify the Astros' offensive framework, providing a substantial base as they venture into the postseason.
Jeremy Pena
Astros fans may find themselves wishing for the 2022 iteration of Jeremy Pena as they navigate through the playoffs. Following a decent rookie season (.253 AVG, 22 HRs, .715 OPS), Pena improved his performance during the playoffs, hitting .345 with a 1.005 OPS and slashing 4 homers in 58 at-bats. Pena was the unsung hero in the playoffs, winning both 2022 ALCS and World Series MVP. With mainstays in Jose Altuve, Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez struggling as a whole in last years postseason, Pena picked up the slack when the Astros desperately needed him.
It's now the end of the 2023 regular season. Having added fifteen pounds of muscle prior to Spring Training, Pena was anticipated to excel, particularly in power-hitting. However, he encountered a noticeable sophomore slump in that regard, managing just 10 homers across 150 games this season. It's been since July 5th since Pena has hit a ball over the yard.
A pivotal concern lies in his contact quality; compared to his previous 38 barrels with a 9.6% barrel rate, the 26-year-old has barrelled the ball merely 18 times this season, indicating a stark drop to a 4.0% barrel rate.
Although his 96 wRC+ and 3.8 WAR this year have also taken a dip compared to 2022, Pena is still vital to the team's defense and situational hitting. His discipline at the plate has improved since last season, drawing more walks and striking out a bit less. Pena struck out 129 times in 2023, which is six times less than his rookie year while playing fifteen more games. With a .324 OBP, Pena improved his versatility of becoming a table setter for the top of the lineup as it switches over.
Astros fans are waiting for his power to make a comeback, and the postseason would be the perfect time. If Pena can raise his barrel rate back to 2022 standards, hardly any holes will be left open at the bottom of the lineup.
Hunter Brown
Ah, what the league used to call "Justin Verlander-lite." To say that Hunter Brown's rookie season was disappointing would be an understatement. Brown had a promising MLB debut late in the 2022 season and followed it up with 3.2 shutout innings across three appearances in the playoffs.
This trajectory was one of the reasons why the Astros didn't re-sign Justin Verlander. Heading into 2023, Brown appeared to be a possible Rookie Of The Year finalist, and it proved wonders early in the season. Through the first month, Brown picked up where he left off, boasting a 2.37 ERA with 32 strikeouts in 30.1 innings pitched.
Unfortunately it was short-lived, as Brown's ERA month by month climbed exponentially. A season in which Brown displayed flashes of dominance during starts, It was overshadowed by inconsistency and fatigue down the stretch, specifically with failing to get ahead in the count. If Brown is in a hitters count, the batting average skyrockets to at least .278.
The final three months of Brown's regular season illustrated nightmarish ERAs of 5.92 in July, 6.23 in August, and a whopping 9.23 ERA in September. He finished the regular season going 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 155.2 innings.
Since his last start, manager Dusty Baker elected to move Brown into the bullpen as a long reliever. With Jose Urquidy back in the possible fifth slot in the rotation, it's doubtful that Baker will start Brown in the postseason. Given his regular season performance, there's a chance that Baker won't include Brown on the playoff roster.
That being said, Brown's stats in the bullpen are nasty. Even if it's a small sample size, Brown has pitched 15 career innings, both regular and postseason, without allowing a single run. These numbers are crucial, especially in the postseason. Considering the pivotal role Cristian Javier played in both 2020 and 2021 as a reliable swingman for Houston, the comparison raises an intriguing question: Can Brown sustainably fill a similar role in high-stakes scenarios, especially when the rotation starters struggle?
Cristian Javier
Speaking of Javier, It's been a mixed bag for "El Reptile" in 2023. Regarded as one of the main reliable anchors, both in long relief and starter last season, Javier was virtually unhittable. With a sparkling 2.54 ERA in 148.2 innings and nearly 200 strikeouts, he was the undeniable X factor for Houston.
His performance on the mound included two combined no-hitters: one in the regular season and the other in the World Series. Javier's breakout 2022 season subsequently led to a five-year, $64 million contract extension, indicating a Cy Young caliber season in 2023. Unfortunately, it was inconsistent. After starting the season strong in April and May (7-1, 2.84 ERA, 69.2 IP, 72 SO), Javier regressed significantly for the rest of the regular season, raising his ERA nearly two whole runs.
Concluding the season with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP across 156 innings, Cristian Javier has notably slipped from his 2022 performance. His last 2023 start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, however, offered a glimmer of the past, delivering six shutout innings. The Houston Astros' one-two punch of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez is indeed a formidable barrier. What follows is Javier, rookie J.P. France, and Urquidy, whose season has been marred by injuries.
With France demonstrating signs of fatigue down the stretch and Urquidy lacking substantial play this year, the Astros are in dire need of the 2022 version of Javier. Supporting the elite duo of Verlander and Valdez is paramount for the team to bolster the rotation, ultimately enhancing their chance to win postseason ballgames.
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