3 ways the Lucas Giolito trade just complicated the Astros' trade deadline plans

The price the Astros will have to pay for rentals just went up

Normally, pending free agents are among the cheaper types of players to acquire at the trade deadline. They only come with a couple months of team control and unless they are good enough to be considered for a qualifying offer at the end of the year, selling teams have little leverage because they risk getting nothing out of them once they hit free agency.

However, the Angels adding Giolito and Lopez (who are both rentals) at the price they did changes things. While farm system rankings are very subjective and the Angels' system isn't great, they did still trade two very decent prospects in Edgar Quero and Ky Bush in the deal. Quero is a switch-hitting catcher who can hit with some pop and has real defensive upside. Bush has struggled a bit this season, but he is still a lefty with a very solid fastball/slider mix who was a second round pick just a couple years ago.

If one takes a look at the trade market this year ($), the market is made up most of pending free agents from a few sellers with few options for teams looking for guys with some team control. Normally, this would be fine for a team like the Astros who are mostly looking for short-term roster reinforcements.

However, the price for most of those players just went up after last night's deal. The few true sellers at the deadline this year are going to point to what the White Sox received and will want to get comparable value for their better rentals.

While this doesn't mean that Houston is going to trade half their farm system to make moves as sellers aren't likely to be completely insane, a certain amount of trade inflation should be expected and that isn't ideal.

The Astros have another aggressive buyer in the division in the Angels

Everything mentioned before about not wanting to force moves just to try and match division rivals tit for tat is still true. Making moves just for the sake of making them is never the right strategy even if the optics of a rival being aggressive makes fans nervous.

However, the Angels shifting into buyer mode is going to have some real reprocussions for Houston. First, the trade market is going to be more freed up now and that means more active competition in negotiations. There were a number of teams that were hoping to be able to make a play for Shohei Ohtani if he became available, but the Angels have firmly declared now that Ohtani isn't going anywhere and the Angels are making a playoff push. Teams that were holding back to make sure they had the prospects to try and make a play for Ohtani (or other Angels for that matter) are going to start looking elsewhere now.

Also, adding the Angels to the list of buyers increases the demand for the same categories of players that the Astros are looking for. Even after the Giolito trade, the Angels probably are still going to look to add another starting pitcher and they are already look at bats on the market as well. If you are following along, Houston is shopping in those same aisles.

In the end, the die has been cast and LA has made the decision to go for it and frankly, good for them for making a run at it. However, their status as buyers exacerbates the already rough demand outpacing supply problem at the deadline the Astros were having to navigate.

The pitching market just got thinner for the Astros

Finally, a deeper look at the pitching market is required here. Aside from the Angels increasing the demand side of the equation at the deadline, the Giolito trade obviously impacted the supply side as well. Lucas Giolito was arguably the best starting pitcher available at the deadline especially if you narrow it to just rentals and he is off the market now. While Lopez wasn't quite as integral to the bullpen market, that is still one less arm left now in a segment of the market that had already been moving a bit.

Moreover, the trade also had the added fallout of bringing the White Sox's plans into focus. While they are still likely to move some relievers and Lance Lynn, the White Sox are squashing any suggestion that they are going to trade Dylan Cease at the deadline which is a bummer for the Astros as Cease was a key potential target for Houston.

There are benefits in waiting close to the trade deadline to make one's moves. Asking prices, especially for rentals and teams that are going nowhere, generally come down as the days until the deadline turn into hours. There is also the chance that more sellers enter the market as fringe contenders fall out of it.

However, the downside is that the more aggressive teams can end up getting the choice talent on the trade market. Not only can that impact the prices for all players in a given demographic like what could happen here, but it could mean that the Astros will be picking from the scrap heap.

In the end, the Astros are still likely to be able to get some pitching at the trade deadline that will improve the roster and insulate them from injury issues. However, the pitching market just got thinner and it is only going to get worse.

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